Saturday, May 01, 2021

A vaccine against covid is not enough.

Famous journalist Barkha Dutt lost her father to Covid-19. When his condition became serious she phoned a private ambulance service and "What arrived was a broken-down Maruti van with a single cylinder (of oxygen) and a crew of one -- the driver." "It turned out that the cylinder in the van, masquerading as an ambulance had faltered, and the mask he had been given was not the one meant for high-flow oxygen." There was no dignity after death at the cremation ground. "At least three other families had been given the same token number for cremation at the same time. An argument ensued, a fight erupted, my sister had to call the police for help." Meanwhile, CEO of Serum Institute Adar Poonawalla has sought refuge in London. He says he has been getting phone calls from the "most powerful" in India, including chief ministers, and business leaders, for immediate supply of Covishield vaccine, Business Today (BT). "Threats is an understatement. The level of expectation and aggression is really unprecedented. It's overwhelming." He must have anticipated this because in March he "rented a property in Mayfair, London, for around 50,000 pounds ($69,000) a week, a record for the upscale district in the city of Westminster", BT. Even in this mess, "Indian shares are extremely expensive. Though the Nifty has fallen 4% from its March high of 15,432 it gained 72% over the year ending 31 March," wrote Mohit Satyanand. Because, "foreign institutional investment (FIIs) bought a record $37.5 billion of Indian equities, and by January 2021, investment in businesses (Foreign Direct Investment, FDI) was up 12% over the same period the previous year". This when, "From 8.2% in March 2018, GDP growth dipped for eight successive quarters to 3.1% in March 2020," and "capital formation (which indicates new investment) in India has been slipping, from a peak of nearly 40% of GDP in 2011, to 32.2% in FY19". "A good earning season (Q4 2021 results) has come as a big positive for the markets; also, many feel the markets are looking at a bright scenario two months ahead as they always trade over the future outlook," wrote Sandeep Singh. "The market's big hope is on the vaccination drive." Vaccine-walla has had to run away. "India's startup community has found itself in an unprecedented funding bonanza. In the first four months of 2021, 11 companies have attained unicorn status, meaning they've reached a valuation of at least $1 billion, according to data from Tracxn," CNN. "But the seemingly endless fundraising cycles may eventually produce diminishing results, worry many industry experts." "Indian bank credit growth hit a record low in fiscal 2020-21 and is expected to languish near those levels this year as a massive surge in COVID-19 infections risks denting India's economic recovery and forces lenders to turn cautious again," Reuters. "Credit growth touched a record low of 5-6% in financial year 2020-21." "The MGNREGS dashboard, maintained by the rural development ministry, showed 2.6 crore (26 million) households and 3.7 crore (37 million) persons were looking for work in April this year, higher by 91% and 85% respectively, over April 2020," Financial Express. MGNREGS is the a safety net for the rural poor. "The second covid wave, if left uncontrolled, could lead to prolonged restrictions on movement and supply chain disruptions with consequent inflationary pressures, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article said," Hindustan Times (HT). What is RBI's medicine? The RBI "announced a Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) bond-buying plan to keep a lid on long-term interest rates amid a massive government borrowing programme, even as it held policy rates steady," HT. Unqualified support for the government, severe financial repression of people. People protect themselves by buying 140 tonnes of gold in January-March quarter, 37% higher than in 2020. We have to inoculate ourselves against covid, against the powerful and against RBI. Not easy.      

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