Friday, May 21, 2021

Does anyone know what they are doing?

"Since March 2020, the Bank of England (BoE) has bought 450 billion pounds of UK government debt through its so-called asset purchase facility," wrote Prof Robert Skidelsky. An then, tongue in cheek, "The fact that the amount of the bank's asset purchases since March 2020 just so happens to match the government's deficit over the same period is no more than a coincidence. To claim otherwise -- that the BoE is engaging in clandestine monetary financing of the deficit -- smacks of conspiracy theory," Mint. "India's central bank will target to buy more than Rs 3 trillion ($41 billion) of sovereign bonds" in 2021-22 "to cap benchmark yields at about 6 percent, according to a person familiar with the matter", Business Standard. Till February 2021, the Reserve Bank (RBI) had purchased Rs 2.5 trillion net debt and it was expected to reach Rs 3 trillion by the end of March. In the current financial year, The RBI announced secondary market purchases of government bonds worth Rs 1 trillion in FY 22, Financial Express. "In the wake of the pandemic-induced economic downturn, fiscal and monetary policies have at last been expansionary together," Skidelsky. In India, "The budget aimed to revive Asia's third largest economy via investing in infrastructure and health care, while relying on aggressive privatisation strategy and robust tax collections -- on the back of projected growth of 10.5% -- to fund its spending in the fiscal year," Economic Times (ET). "The extent of the crisis is even making investors question whether after years of debt accumulation, India once expected to become an economic superpower, still deserves to cling to its 'investment grade' status." "The Union government is staring at a second straight year of revenue shortfalls as the resurgence of the coronavirus and the subsequent localised lockdowns deliver a crushing blow to economic activity," Hindustan Times. Which means constrained fiscal spending. "The UK economy will enjoy its fastest growth in more than 70 years in 2021 as Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, according to the Bank of England. The economy is expected to expand by 7.25% this year, with extra government spending helping to limit job losses," BBC. In India, "The biggest toll of the second wave is in terms of demand shock -- loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment, besides inventory accumulation, while aggregate supply is less impacted," said a RBI bulletin, ET.  In rural India, "Numbers form the labour bureau suggest that real wages for March 2021 were lower than in March 2019 for both agricultural and non-agricultural workers. On the other hand, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that the rural unemployment rate increased sharply from less than 6% in the first week of March to more than 14% in the most recent week," wrote Prof Himanshu. "There is a glaring lack of fiscal support from the government at a time when India's rural economy has been in deep distress for at least a year," Mint. "As per RBI data, Indian household debt rose to 37.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020. Overall debt held by households was roughly valued at Rs 43.5 trillion, as of March 2021," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan and Advaita Singh. "As India's national debt hit almost 89.6% of GDP in 2020-21, government debt touched 70% of GDP. Corporate debt levels went up to 47%." "The annual UK inflation rate more than doubled in April, as a rise in energy and clothing costs drove prices higher. The jump to 1.5% in April from 0.7% in March, means consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate since March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic," BBC. "India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) climbed to 10.49% in April compared to 7.39% that was recorded last month in March," ET. "Mattress producers to car manufacturers to aluminium foil makers are buying more material than they need to survive the breakneck speed at which the demand for goods is recovering and assuage the primal fear of running out. The frenzy is pushing supply chains to the point of seizing up," ET. We are going down while others are going up and rising prices of commodities will push us down further. Does the RBI know what it is doing?  

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