We may fall even further behind Bangladesh.

"This month, Bangladesh's Cabinet Secretary told reporters that GDP per capita had grown by 9% over the past year, rising to $2,227. Pakistan's per capita income, meanwhile, is $1,543. In 1971, Pakistan was 70% richer than Bangladesh; today, Bangladesh is 45% richer than Pakistan," Mihir Sharma. "India's per capita income in 2020-21 was a mere $1,947." Share of women in Bangladeshi labor force has increased consistently, while it has been falling in India and Pakistan. "Four out of five women are not working in India," The Diplomat. "In 1990, FLFP (female labor force participation) was 30.3 percent. By 2019, it had declined to 20.5 percent, according to the World Bank." "Covid-19 has only exacerbated these trends," wrote Mitali Nikore. "Between March-April 2020, 20.6 percent of female workforce, moved out of the labor force, versus 13.4 percent of men. Even as of December 2020, the size of female labor force continued to be 14 percent lower than December 2019, vs 1 percent for men, according to CMIE data," Financial Express (FE). Only Algeria, Syria and Yemen are below us, the average for the world is 47%, World Bank. "And Bangladesh has maintained a public debt-to-GDP ratio between 30% and 40%. India and Pakistan will both emerge from the pandemic with public debt close to 90% of GDP." "The Centre's fiscal deficit for the financial year 2020-21 settled at 9.2 percent of the gross domestic product, marginally below the government's revised target of 9.5%," Business Standard. "In absolute terms, India's fiscal deficit was Rs 18.21 trillion, about Rs 27,194 crore (Rs 271.94 billion) lower than the projected Rs 18.48 trillion," "based on provisional estimates for FY21 GDP of Rs 197.46 trillion". On 18 May, the Reserve Bank (RBI) transferred Rs 991.22 billion to the government as surplus for the 9 months to 31 March. Accounting year for the RBI used to be from 1July to 30 June, but it decided to change it to 1 April to 31 March to coincide with the financial year of the government.  "While the interest income for the nine months ended March 2021 was lower by Rs 40,276 crore (Rs 402.76), 'Other income' increased by Rs 23, 876 crore, resulting in a fall in total income of Rs 16,399 crore," wrote Prof NR Bhusnurmath. The RBI got this money by creative accounting, decreasing its provisions for its Contingency Fund to 60.65% of its expenditure for the nine months to 31 March, as opposed to 79.55% of expenditure for the whole of its last accounting year, FE. "The size of the RBI's balance sheet increased by Rs 3.73 trillion, or 6.99 percent, to Rs 57.08 trillion as on March 31," moneycontrol. "Central bank profits, or seigniorage, belong to the government, and are normally transferred back to governments," wrote prof Ila Patnaik and Radhika Pandey. "The RBI decided to maintain its Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) at 5.5 percent of the balance-sheet. This amounted to Rs 20,710 crore." Patnaik and Pandey insist that this amount should also have been transferred to the government which would have allowed it to buy vaccines. "So, not only is this a very generous payout in itself, it remains the highest ever, except for the year 2018-19 when the RBI transferred to the GOI (government of India) a sum of Rs 1,761 billion. But 2018-19 was an outlier, because in that year, the RB had chosen to give effect, at one go, to the recommendations of the Bimal Jalan Committee on the central bank's Economic Capital Framework (ECF), opting not only to pay out its entire annual surplus of Rs 1,235 billion to the GOI, but to release an additional quantum of Rs 526 billion by marking down its accumulated capital reserves," wrote Anjan Basu. "India's central banks took  a step toward formalizing quantitative easing, pledging to buy up to Rs 1 trillion ($14 billion) of bonds this quarter to keep borrowing costs low and support the economy's recovery," Anirban nag and Subhadip Sircar. By printing money to finance government debt the RBI may lose control of inflation as happened to Venezuela, wrote Andy Mukherjee. We may end up borrowing from Bangladesh.               

A politician may defend his boss, a doctor should not.

"Over the past 50 days, India has been relentlessly hauled over the coals. Its national image and the reputation of its government has been battered," wrote BJP MP Swapan Dasgupta. "In democratic societies there is a tendency to pillory the government for anything short of super efficiency in crisis management." Not "super", people have a right to expect humanity, decency and respect. Instead, even as cases were rising, Modi was campaigning vigorously in West Bengal in his craving to win the state, Outlook India. Government teachers were threatened into election duty in UP Panchayat election. Hundreds died, The Print. This was not "super efficiency", this was super brutality, amounting to genocide. Then there are "fulminations over the Central Vista project", writes Dasgupta. "By all accounts, Mr Modi's current accommodation is pretty fancy. The 12-acre complex on Lok Kalyan Marg (formerly Race Course Road), with five bungalows and sprawling lawns, is some 3km from the presidential palace and parliament," BBC. "The Indian PM occupies an entire street - in Britain, 10 Downing Street is just a door with a number," says Delhi-based architect Gautam Bhatia. "It was only to be expected that the ousted Old Establishment would leave no stone unturned -- including cynical alliances with foreign entities -- to attempt a comeback." The old paranoia about the "foreign hand" or, in the case of Modi, "foreign destructive ideology", Jyoti Malhotra. "The system hasn't collapsed. The government has failed. Perhaps 'failed' is an inadequate word, because what we are witnessing is not criminal negligence, but an outright crime against humanity," wrote Arundhati Roy. Election to the assembly of India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh (UP) must be held before 14 March 2022, Wikipedia. "Farmers protesting for the last six months against the farm laws brought by the Bharatiya Janata Party government at the Centre have announced a 'Defeat BJP: Mission Uttar Pradesh' campaign to be started ahead of the 2022 assembly elections in the state," The Wire. In the recent Panchayat elections in UP, independent candidates won far more seats than any political party, including BJP, Bhaskar. Independents won 944 seats to BJP's 768. While "many contact-promoting activities have been halted, neither Opposition parties nor supposed intellectuals are calling for a halt to an indubitable Covid spreader -- the farmers' agitation surrounding Delhi. Whatever the merits of massive sit-in agitation, it should be halted like other Covid-spreaders," wrote SSA Aiyar. Protests by farmers at the outskirts of Delhi against the hastily passed farm laws have been going on for around 6 months, Gurbir Singh. The government has not been idle. Roads have been dug up, tire-shredding nails have been planted in roads and internet messaging disrupted to make life difficult for the protesting farmers, Indiatimes. The government has not resorted to physical force, even though farmers, despite their numbers, do not vote as a block, The Print. If farmers are adamant to keep protesting, and, if the government is unwilling or unable to resort to violence to remove them, surely the simplest course of action would be to vaccinate all farmers so that they do not get infected. "India is the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, but the shortage it is facing currently says as much about poor governance as it does about the complexities of global supply chains and their increasing interplay with geopolitics and diplomacy," Times of India (TOI). "Centrally procure vaccines, but give states operational flexibility. And distribute them free. This is what the United States did," wrote Prof PB Mehta. "Instead, what we got in vaccine policy is a bizarre combination of ruthlessness and managing the headlines." Opposition politicians have been labeled "vultures" for questioning the numbers of deaths by Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan. Perhaps, he has forgotten the Hippocratic Oath, compulsory for all doctors, which urges doctors to "abstain from intentional wrong-doing and harm, specially from abusing the bodies of man or woman". An MP takes an oath to uphold the constitution which can be amended, the hippocratic oath is immutable. Perhaps Vardhan should renounce his medical registration.   

Poetry is challenging our managed media.

"Two weeks ago, Parul Khakkar, a poet in Amreli in Gujarat, published a poem on her Facebook page" "called Shab-Vahini Ganga (the hearse called Ganga)," wrote Salil Tripathi. "Astounded that a Gujarati poet would criticize the state, many began sharing it, turning into an instant hit. She was attacked online mercilessly, in misogynistic, vulgar tones, by hundreds who seemed more upset over a poem than the deaths." The poem has been translated into Bangla, Marathi, Tamil, Hindi, Punjabi and English and set to tune in Gujarati and Punjabi. "A BJP leader from Gujarat told the Wire that his party's trolling of the apolitical poet was absolutely tasteless and further exposed the party's aloofness from the situation on the ground," The Wire. One poet wrote, "You just need to bury them/ ten feet deep into the soil/ until the maggots burrow and eat the petals/ breed in the still moist caverns", while another wrote, "In this crematorium of a city/ my nose recognises this smell". The government's response has been to deliberately undercount the number of people dying of the coronavirus. "Across India's small towns and villages local language newspapers are revealing that thousands more are probably dying of the coronavirus each day than the government's data show,"Jeanette Rodrigues. "The raging second wave of the virus revealed not only governmental ineptitude but also exposed India's soft underbelly -- our heavy bureaucratic system, which wasn't nimble enough to cope with the crisis," wrote Gurcharan Das. "India needs modern, effective utilities that are autonomous, accountable, and creditworthy," Times of India (TOI). "Who will be losers in this reform? Bureaucrats, politicians, and unions -- a formidable interest group." Asking people to reform the system so that they lose their privileges of power is like asking leeches to stop sucking blood. Then there are people like Yoga Guru Ramdev who claimed that allopathy, which is the western form of evidence based medicine, is responsible for death of patients and that 10,000 doctors have died after taking two doses of vaccine. "On May 1, the Drug Controller General of India (DGCI) approved a drug called 2-deoxy-d-glucose (2-DG) for emergency use among people with moderate and severe COVID-19, to help manage the disease." The Wire. The drug apparently has some effect on cancer cells. Studies regarding efficacy of 2-DG have not been published in any journal but a manuscript was posted on a website for preprints, wrote Prof Madhav Thambisetty. "All but two of the seven authors of this manuscript are with Patanjali Ayurveda." "Earlier this year, Baba Ramdev, the co-founder of Patanjali Ayurved, released 'Coronil', a herbal Ayurvedic medicine that initially claimed to guarantee a 100 percent recovery from Covid-19 within a week." Viruses do not have a cell wall or cytoplasm like cancer cells do, so they do not need glucose for metabolism. "It (a virus) doesn't breathe, it doesn't eat, it doesn't excrete, and it doesn't grow -- so it can't be alive, can it?" Science Learning Hub. After Ramdev's offensive statements about doctors he was gently coaxed into retracting his comments by the Health Minister Harsh Vardhan, who himself is an 'allopathic' doctor, which is "politial theatre pure and simple", wrote Vasudevan Mukunth. "Most of the reports, analyses and, especially, editorials on India's Covid situation which have appeared in the foreign media bluntly blame Modi for fueling the crisis and failing to manage it. And they back up their arguments and analyses with facts, generally gleaned from the ground," newslaundry. However, "India's vast media have become increasingly subservient to Modi's government since the Hindu nationalist was first elected Prime Minister seven years ago," CNN. "In the last seven years, Narendra Modi has been a colossal figure in Indian politics," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. "As he completes seven years in office on May 26, there are visible signs that the halo is losing its glow," Hindustan Times (HT). "In a tweet slamming the Delhi Police raid at Twitter's Gurugram office on Monday night, (TMC MP Mahua) Moitra said, "Welcome to our Susu Potty Republic! Drink Gaumutra, smear cowdung and flush the rule of law down the toilet."India Today. Succinctly put.   

Trust comes from power of the vote-bank.

Economic well-being of a nation is based on trust, wrote Vani S Kulkarni & Raghav V Gaiha, "A striking pattern emerges in the state government by expenditure tercile." "The share of those with a great deal of confidence fell from the extremely poor to the affluent sharply; of those with only some confidence also fell, but moderately; and of those with hardly any confidence rose moderately with rising expenditure/ income." "Segments of the extremely poor benefited from quotas in education and public employment and thus were dependent on state governments, while the affluent had other options." Mint. India has a plethora of social schemes to help the poor, wikipedia, to which more schemes have been added by the present government, Jagran Josh. While Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers get pension, Dearness Allowance and free healthcare for life, income taxpayers not only do not receive any benefits at all, they are treated as thieves by having to link their income tax Permanent Account Number (PAN), Business Today, to the flagrant surveillance biometric Aadhaar number, The Wire. However, the brutal severity of the second wave of the coronavirus, BBC, has diverted attention from the suffering of the poor to the lack of health infrastructure in India. One year back, "India's workers asserted their rights and made themselves heard by walking home in March 2020," wrote Yamini Aiyar. Tens of thousands of families, often with little children, walked hundreds of miles back to their villages,Times of India (TOI), as Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a total lockdown on 25 May last year with just 4 hours notice when there were only 500 cases in all of India, India.com. "It is a measure of how easily the State abandons its people that two months into the second wave, the looming livelihood crisis awaits acknowledgement by the government and relief, such as it is, remains sporadic and inadequate. The poor, long abandoned by India's broken health system, is now being forced to suffer the indignity of abandoning their dead," Hindustan Times (HT). "India's holiest river, the Ganges, has been swollen with bodies in recent days. Hundreds of corpses have been found floating in the river or buried in the sand of its banks," BBC. "The death toll increasing in leaps and bounds, cremation grounds across UP are now witnessing harrowed families struggling to cremate their loved ones. They are being overcharged and have no option but to pay in the name of Covid crisis," India Today. Having to borrow money while weeping for the dead must be the ultimate insult. "A Hunger Watch survey points out that in October 2020, one in three respondents reported skipping meals 'sometimes' or 'often', and 71% of households reported a worsening in the nutritional quality of their food intake." "Within rural areas, the spread is far worse in states and districts with higher concentrations of the poor and lower access to health infrastructure. Rural areas, therefore, hold the key to dealing with the pandemic," Prof Himanshu. "Numbers form the labour bureau suggest that real wages for March 2021 were lower than in March 2019 for both agricultural and non-agricultural workers. On the other hand, data from the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that rural unemployment rate increased from less than 6% in the first week of March to more than 14% in the most recent week," Mint. "As per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, Indian household debt rose to 37.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020. Overall debt held by households was roughly valued at Rs 43.5% trillion, as of March 2021," wrote Deepanshu Mohan and Advaita Singh. Rising debt with rising unemployment, a toxic combination. The poor trust the government because they know they have the power of being the vote-bank. The middle class seethe in silence.  

First slay the big wolf warrior, the little ones will fall in.

"A Ryanair plane from Greece to Lithuania was diverted to Belarus for several hours on Sunday, with activists saying it was done to arrest a dissident journalist on board," BBC. "European nations reacted with outrage, accusing Belarus of 'state terrorism'. The ex-editor of the Nexta group, Roman Protasevich, was detained before the plane was allowed to resume its flight." "In a show of unified fury, the United States, Britain, the European Union, NATO and the United Nations lined up to call out the action in the skies above the eastern European country led by Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe's last dictator," NBC. "President Joe Biden on Monday said the forced diversion by Belarus of a commercial passenger jet so it could arrest an opposition journalist was 'a direct affront to international norms' and condemned the action as an 'outrageous incident'," CNBC. A Whitehouse statement said "The United States condemns in the strongest possible terms both the diversion of the plane and the subsequent removal and arrest of Mr Pratasevich. This outrageous incident and the video Mr Pratasevich seems to have made under duress are shameful assaults on both political dissent and the freedom of the press." "In July 2013 (President of Bolivia) Evo Morales was flying to Bolivia from a summit in Moscow, when his jet had to divert to Vienna airport in Austria after several other European countries apparently refused it permission to enter their airspace," BBC. In an outrageous insult to Bolivia, Austrian Police searched the plane for Edward Snowden and the plane was allowed to leave when he was not found, NPR. Edward Snowden is a whistleblower who exposed how the US National Security Agency (NSA) was spying on leaders of other nations., Wikipedia. Bolivia was convinced that the US was behind the act of air piracy. "Message to the Americans: The empire and its servants will never will never be able to intimidate or scare us," said Morales, CNN. Joe Biden was vice-president to Barack Obama in 2013. Selective amnesia. The European Union (EU) imposed new sanctions on Belarus. Belarus planes have been banned from flying over EU airspace, DW. In response, "At least two European airlines have been refused permission to fly to Moscow by Russian authorities after the carriers requested to fly an alternative route bypassing Belarussian airspace," CNN. In December 2020, the EU and China "concluded in principle the negotiations for a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), announced the European Commission. The deal followed "a call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on behalf of the Presidency of the EU Council, as well as the French President Emmanuel Macron." This despite a report from Human Rights Watch that, "China's government sees human rights as an existential threat. It's reaction could pose an existential threat to the rights of people worldwide." "For much of the past decade, the world's largest trading bloc has gone out of its way to establish an economic partnership with Beijing that doesn't conflict too aggressively with Brussels' lofty values," CNN. "Last week, the parliament voted on a motion to freeze the CAI until further notice. Ostensibly, this was in protest at China placing sanctions on five MEPs who had criticized China's treatment of Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang among other things." "Recently the Chinese foreign ministry has taken an increasingly strident tone against the United States, Australia and other countries. Dubbed 'wolf-warrior diplomacy' this new approach seems popular inside China and reinforces a presumed transition of Chinese diplomacy from conservative, passive to assertive, proactive and high-profile," The Diplomat. If you play with the big bad wolf, the little ones will want to join in. Wolves hunt in packs.      

Not good, more a question of how bad.

"After the most severe global recession in decades, private and official forecasters are increasingly optimistic that world output will recover strongly this year," Prof Nouriel Roubini. "In the US, the main risk is overheating." "In China and the economies closely linked to it", "high levels of debt and leverage in some parts of the Chinese private and public sectors will pose risks", and Japan's "massive public debt may eventually become unsustainable". "Among the more troubled economies to watch around the world are India, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa," Mint. "The fear was that house prices would collapse, as they reliably had done in past economic downturns," CNN. "Instead house prices soared even as the world suffered its worst slump since the Great Depression. From New Zealand to the United States, Germany, China and Peru, the same phenomenon has taken hold: home prices are skyrocketing and many buyers are panicking." Rising prices will trigger a boom in construction, which will raise prices of commodities. "Already the world's biggest consumer, China spent $150 billion on crude oil, iron ore and copper ore alone in the first four months of 2021," Economic Times (ET). "With global commodities rising to record highs, Chinese government officials are trying to temper prices and reduce some of the speculative froth that's driven markets." In India, "A spike in input cost is starting to pinch profit margins, prompting companies in some sectors to take guarded price hikes," Mint. "Manufacturers of large packaged consumer goods are deferring promotional offers to retailers and consumers while raising product prices, as they tackle an increase in  commodity costs," Hindustan Times (HT). "Increase in input costs and supply disruptions in rural economy on account of the second Covid-19 wave are preparing the grounds for surge in inflation during this fiscal, rating agency Crisil, noted in a recent report," Business Today. "Referring to government data, Crisil noted that wholesale price index (WPI)-linked inflation crossed double digit level at 10.5 percent year-on-year in April 2021 from 7.4 percent in March, for the first time since 2010." It is possible that WPI inflation could be much higher but for the strength of the rupee against the dollar which keeps a lid on the cost of imports. "We have had the largest FDI in India ($81 billion in FY21) and the FPI inflow was also continuous. In FY21, a lot of imports were down because of the lockdown. All of that is getting reflected in the rupee," said Jayesh Mehta. "But at the end, it is more about dollar weakening than rupee strengthening," ET. The government should increase spending to support economic growth, according to Prof Abhijit Banerjee, ET. "Is it possible to spend an extra 2% of GDP on this right now? Probably -- many countries have borrowed 10 times that amount, so why not?" he said. "The Union government is staring at a second straight year of revenue shortfalls", and the "Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its bulletin that the biggest toll of the second Covid-19 wave was in terms of a demand shock -- loss of mobility, lower discretionary spending and unemployment, besides inventory accumulation, though aggregate supply was less impacted", HT. Higher unemployment means less income tax collection and lower consumer spending means less GST collection. "The shortfall in GST compensation payable to states in the current fiscal is estimated at Rs 2.69 lakh crore (Rs 2.69 trillion), of which Rs 1.58 lakh crore would have to be borrowed this year," CNBCTV18. The government could at least lower costs by reducing taxes on fuel, instead taxes on petrol and diesel are rising inexorably. On top of this the RBI "is paying a dividend of Rs 99,122 crore (Rs 991.22 billion) to the government, double the budgetary estimates", ET. "India is the only country among eight major emerging markets that has four of the five selected macroeconomic parameters much worse than the average," wrote Prof Alok Sheel. "For these reasons India is particularly vulnerable to the external shock of a rise in US interest rates and turn in the global financial cycle." Strong dollar, weak rupee, rise in prices, fall in growth, also known a 'stagflation'. Fall in earnings , with soaring prices. Surely not 'achche din', is it?

Less chance than a snowball in hell.

The State of Working India 2021 report by the Azim Premji University "estimates that the number of individuals below India's minimum wage threshold increased by 230 million during the pandemic. But for covid, the number would have fallen by 50 million," wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. This while companies are reporting double digit growth in profits, which means that companies are protecting profits by sacking workers. "In April 2020, India had about 18.1 million white-collar workers. By April 2021, the number had plummeted to 13.8 million, according to an estimate made by Mitali Nikore, an economist and the founder of Nikore Associates, a think tank," wrote Gautam Das. "Nearly every company laid off workers, sometimes silently. The 'trimming of the fat' to shore up profitability continued well into December quarter for many firms," Mint. "According to calculations by economists at State Bank of India, out of pocket healthcare expenses and loss of income because of illness will set families back by 660 billion rupees ($9 billion)," wrote Andy Mukherjee. As consumers cut spending, "That will force producers to tighten belts once again to keep investors happy, even though, at the aggregate level, cost-cutting is a zero-sum game. Firms' expenses are households' income. If consumers don't earn enough, insipid demand will prompt India Inc to make deeper cuts, worsening the situation for everyone." What is the solution? Nageswaran recommends more donations of money to the government by companies, more trust between the government and the people and, "A grand pact among political parties and between governments and India Inc to address short- and medium-term national priorities will reverse the public mood of diffidence and pessimism over the future." After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi comprehensively lost the assembly election in West Bengal, moneycontrol, the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI) "arrested Trinamool Congress (TMC) ministers, Subrata Mukherjee and Firhad Hakim, sitting MLA Madan Mitra and former mayor Sovan Chatterjee, in connection with the Narada sting operation of 2016", Business Standard. Strangely, Suvendu Adhikari and Mukul Roy, who defected from the TMC to the BJP, and also featured in the sting, were not arrested, Times of India (TOI). The BJP brought down the Puducherry government by engineering defections which "is now a pattern of Machiavellian intrigue that has been repeated from Arunachal and Manipur to Goa, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh where a ruthlessly expansionist BJP seeks to consolidate its ascendancy by wangling either wholesale or retail defections", wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. "In Kerala, the BJP is resolutely widening its base, even while remaining a fair distance away from conquering it. In Bengal, on the other hand, the gloves are off. Should Didi's Kolkata fortress fall to the sustained BJP assault, we could be pretty close to an 'opposition-mukt' (free of opposition) Bharat with serious implications for the future of an increasingly strained multi-party democracy," Hindustan Times (HT). "Modi has made a mockery of federalism, he is genetically unwilling to share power, just as he cannot share the credit for anything," wrote Avay Shukla. His aim is to create a "One Nation, One Party" future and, "In pursuit of this he has used the CBI, NIA, ED, Income Tax department and friendly police forces to target leaders of political parties; the thousands of crores in the opaque electoral bonds that have been gainfully utilised to pull down democratically elected governments in nine states, elections have been customised to suit the BJP's strategy." Editor of Republic TV Arnav Goswami apparently knew of the government's plans of an air strike on Balakot in Pakistan occupied Kashmir on 26 February 2019, days before the actual strike, Dawn, prompting an angry Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to accuse Modi of risking a war to win the general election in March 2019, Economic Times. Prof Nageswaran's hopes of a "A grand pact among political parties" has about as much chance as a 'snowball's chance in hell'. Maybe, even less.     

Serving the government is not the same as serving the nation.

 "With the economic recovery better and inflation higher than expected in the US, the Federal Reserve has signalled it might taper its bond purchases. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook of April 2021 has raised the possibility of capital outflows from emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) should the financial cycle turn, spelling instability ahead of them," wrote Prof Alok Sheel. Robert Mundell postulated that policymakers can choose any two, but not all three, macroeconomic objectives -- foreign capital mobility, fixed exchange rates and inflation management", wrote Prof Amol Agrawal. Meaning that, if foreign capital begins to flow out of India the rupee will drop, increasing prices of imports, including oil, resulting in inflation shooting up. "The government will continue with the target of maintaining retail inflation at 4% (+/- 2%) for the next five financial years," Business Today (BT). However, "A report by SBI Research has claimed that the Consumer Prime Index (CPI) computed inflation since December last year is higher than the figures reported by the government's Central Statistical Organisation (CSO)," BT. "RBI managed this trinity by increasing liquidity via multiple programmes keeping bond yields low. This was at the cost of almost ignoring the inflation target, which remained above the upper target range of 6% from April to November 2020," Agrawal. Not just that, "Last week, the RBI approved a transfer of Rs 99,122 crore (Rs 991.22 billion) as surplus to the central government for the accounting period for nine months ended March 31, 2021. The RBI has changed its accounting year to April-March from the earlier July-June," India Today. "Stretched to four quarters, that would amount to more than twice the payout it made the year earlier, ended June 2020," Mint. "The irony here is the bonanza turned over by RBI just before covid struck. In August 2019, it gave the Centre Rs 1.76 trillion for 2018-19, up from Rs 50,000 crore (Rs 500 billion) the previous year." "Viral Acharya, a deputy governor who left soon after warned of 'the wrath of financial markets' over a monetary authority that lacked liberty." "The Union government is staring at a second year of revenue shortfalls as the resurgence of the coronavirus and the subsequent localised lockdowns deliver a crushing blow to economic activity," Hindustan Times (HT). Government debt is set to rise to over 80% of GDP due to increased borrowing this year to make up for a shortfall in tax collections, Business Insider. "The Indian government also has the option to flood the economy with more rupees to make its payments. If the government has too much debt and it fulfills its debt by printing more money, then the value of money goes down." Which will raise prices and cause inflation. "Manufacturers of large packaged consumer goods are deferring promotional offers to retailers and consumers while raising product prices, as they tackle and increase in commodity costs," Mint. Inflation decreases government debt by increasing tax collections as prices and wages rise, as well as reducing the overall value of debt due to a fall in the value of the currency. It would be a dangerous game to play because "except for the current account deficit, all the parameters that made India vulnerable in 2013 are again significantly above the EMDE average". "The rupee plunged from 53.67 recorded in May 2013 to a record low of 69.13 (intraday) against the US dollar on 28 August, which also marked the largest single day fall in  18 years," Economic Times (ET). That has gone down a 'taper tantrum' because the Chair of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke hinted at reducing the amount of bond buying by the Fed. "India is the only country among the major emerging markets that has four of the five selected macroeconomic parameters much worse than average. Brazil, South Africa and Turkey have two misaligned, while Bangladesh and Thailand have one each." The RBI is serving the government, but is it serving the nation? We will know too late.  

Contrition needs feelings for others.

 Prof V Anantha Nageswaran focuses on positives in an article on how the second wave of the coronavirus caught India totally unprepared, Mint. Apparently, the government handled the first wave last year rather well when Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed the strictest lockdown with 4 hours notice when there were only 500 cases, Hindustan Times (HT), triggering a massive exodus of migrant workers from cities back to their villages,walking hundreds of miles, often with little children, Times of India (TOI). Modi lost elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, proving that our electoral system is fair. "The media has been strongly critical of the government on covid. This is not a sign of a society where free speech is throttled, not withstanding the attempts of many commentators to paint India in such a light," insists Nageswaran. Indeed. Just one week back, "The Delhi Police have arrested 25 people over posters criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi related to the management of the Coronavirus crisis in the country. These posters were put up in many parts of the national capital with messages like: Modiji, why did you send vaccines meant for our children, abroad?" abp. 25 arrested for such an innocuous message! Not a sign of a free speech society, is it? Nageswaran suggest some solutions to the crisis. "The government could appoint a national task force -- with chief ministers of different states -- on public health. Its task should be to improve India's ratio of hospital beds, doctors and nurses to its population, taking it to acceptable levels." Instead, the government is spending an estimated Rs 200 billion ($2.7 billion) to construct a new parliament building in the center of Delhi, including a palace for the Prime Minister, ndtv, while asking states to pay for vaccines to protect their citizens against the virus, Business Standard. If states are spending their health budgets on vaccines they can't possible build new hospitals and employ more doctors and nurses. "There is no policy success without managing perceptions and politics." In an attempt to cover up Modi's complicity in deaths of thousands, his supporters say now is not the time for politics or to find faults, now is the time to unite and support Modi for the sake of the nation, knowing full well that as soon infection levels fall Modi will claim victory and use his expertise at mendacity to paint his opponents as losers. "Adversities are supposed to unite us -- to rise to the occasion and defeat the common enemy which, in this case, is a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic," wrote well known actor Anupam Kher. First the stirring words to support Modi, then abuse of opposition. "Never before has every death been met with such back-handed joy just because it can potentially embarrass the government." "The system hasn't collapsed. The government has failed. Perhaps 'failed' is an inaccurate word, because what we are witnessing, is not criminal negligence, but an outright crime against humanity," wrote an angry Arundhati Roy. "But that is only one part of the story. The other part is that the man with no feelings, the man with empty eyes and a mirthless smile, can, like so many tyrants in the past, arouse passionate feelings in others," The Wire. "In north India, which is home to his largest voting base, and which, by dint of sheer numbers, tends to decide the political fate of the country, the pain he inflicts seems to turn into a peculiar pleasure." "If Bal Narendra had spent some more time in school instead of rushing of to sell tea at a railway station which did not even exist at that time, he would have imbibed some wisdom from a couple of old adages: 'Don't burn your bridges behind you because you may need them again tomorrow' and 'Be courteous to the people you cross on your way up because you will meet them again on your way down'," wrote a contemptuous Avay Shukla. "Given today's public perceptions, the government's top leadership should consider offering a reassuring message to the nation that mixes contrition, composure and confidence." Modi doesn't do contrition. His strength is his lack of empathy.

Gas of publicity can drown lack of oxygen gas.

"The death toll due to the mid-sea mishap at Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) barge 'Papaa-305' (P305) in Bombay High touched 37 on May 20, while the search for around 38 missing people is still on," moneycontrol.com. ONGC is owned by the Indian government. "According to a source from ONGC, the cyclone changed its path," and "unprecedented wind speed due to unexpected low pressure led to the tragedy, despite ONGC taking all the safety measures" but "The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has rejected claims that the cyclone changed its path." ONGC officials must have been asleep because on, "Thursday May 13: It appears increasingly likely that India's western and southwestern coasts will encounter the first cyclone of the year 2021 this weekend, as a low-pressure system is set to form in the Arabian Sea in the next 24 hours," Times of India (TOI). Seems very clear warning. Quick of the mark, "Mumbai police on Friday registered a FIR (first information report) - which includes charges of 'causing death by negligence' - against the captain of the barge which was carrying 265 people when it sank 35 nautical miles off the city's coast Monday, as cyclone Tauktae battered India's west coast," NDTV.  "Barges are large, flat-bottomed floating structures with cramped built up accommodation, and when they have no self propulsion, they are deemed to be 'dumb'. P-305 belonged to this category and with 261 people on board, it would have been very vulnerable to the cyclone," wrote C Uday Bhaskar. Obviously, without an engine, the captain could not have maneuvered it to safety. "In a bid to escape accountability, companies have blamed the Captain or the barge master of P-305, Rakesh Ballav," "who is among the 26 who are still missing," The Sunday Guardian. "Big companies are involved" and "They are trying to pin the blame on one individual so that their mistakes don't come out in the open," a technician working for ONGC at Bombay High said. "The loss of precious lives could have been avoided" had there been no "institutional lapses, from the most glaring (unserviceable life rafts on P-305 is criminal negligence) to the most obvious -- why was a dumb barge, with 261 people on board, allowed to remain at sea even though the cyclone warning was received a week before sinking?" wrote Bhaskar. "India has an anomalous maritime sector management pattern, wherein domain competence is ignored and generalist civil servants are preferred for the top job." Indian lives depend on useless pen pushers. "With Covid-induced mucormycosis spreading faster across all states, experts have asked the government to determine the role of industrial oxygen in the infection," The Tribune. The Wire has "collated the details of 178 deaths in which the hospital authorities or local administrations have confirmed oxygen shortage as the proximate cause, and another 70 deaths in which the patients' families have alleged that the lack of oxygen was to blame but the authorities have not confirmed the allegation." An expert Ramakant Panda said that, unlike industrial oxygen, medical oxygen "undergoes a range of processes such as compression, filtration and purification. Even its cylinders undergo disinfection and cleanliness processes". Government 'experts' have blamed the fungus infection to "Covid, diabetes and irrational steroid use that suppress immunity". The number of diabetics in India is estimated at 40 million, or 4 crore. Steroids and immunosuppressants are prescribed in many conditions from asthma to transplants to cancer. Why was there never an epidemic of mucormycosis until now? And, why are we not seeing an epidemic of candidiasis when yeasts are normally present on the skin, in the mouth and in the vagina? In view of deaths and destruction the government must be totally focused on our well-being, right? What is most exercising the Bharatiya Janata Party of Prime Minister Modi is a 'toolkit' by the Congress Party which apparently "aims to tarnish the mage of the country and Prime Minister Narendra Modi" Tweets by BJP politicians were tagged as 'manipulated' by Twitter which immediately elicited a severe response from the government. 'It is not the pandemic that is of big concern to the Narendra Modi government. Publicity, press and projection are," The Print. Drowning and choking are due to lack of oxygen gas. Publicity is plentiful gas. 

Does anyone know what they are doing?

"Since March 2020, the Bank of England (BoE) has bought 450 billion pounds of UK government debt through its so-called asset purchase facility," wrote Prof Robert Skidelsky. An then, tongue in cheek, "The fact that the amount of the bank's asset purchases since March 2020 just so happens to match the government's deficit over the same period is no more than a coincidence. To claim otherwise -- that the BoE is engaging in clandestine monetary financing of the deficit -- smacks of conspiracy theory," Mint. "India's central bank will target to buy more than Rs 3 trillion ($41 billion) of sovereign bonds" in 2021-22 "to cap benchmark yields at about 6 percent, according to a person familiar with the matter", Business Standard. Till February 2021, the Reserve Bank (RBI) had purchased Rs 2.5 trillion net debt and it was expected to reach Rs 3 trillion by the end of March. In the current financial year, The RBI announced secondary market purchases of government bonds worth Rs 1 trillion in FY 22, Financial Express. "In the wake of the pandemic-induced economic downturn, fiscal and monetary policies have at last been expansionary together," Skidelsky. In India, "The budget aimed to revive Asia's third largest economy via investing in infrastructure and health care, while relying on aggressive privatisation strategy and robust tax collections -- on the back of projected growth of 10.5% -- to fund its spending in the fiscal year," Economic Times (ET). "The extent of the crisis is even making investors question whether after years of debt accumulation, India once expected to become an economic superpower, still deserves to cling to its 'investment grade' status." "The Union government is staring at a second straight year of revenue shortfalls as the resurgence of the coronavirus and the subsequent localised lockdowns deliver a crushing blow to economic activity," Hindustan Times. Which means constrained fiscal spending. "The UK economy will enjoy its fastest growth in more than 70 years in 2021 as Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, according to the Bank of England. The economy is expected to expand by 7.25% this year, with extra government spending helping to limit job losses," BBC. In India, "The biggest toll of the second wave is in terms of demand shock -- loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment, besides inventory accumulation, while aggregate supply is less impacted," said a RBI bulletin, ET.  In rural India, "Numbers form the labour bureau suggest that real wages for March 2021 were lower than in March 2019 for both agricultural and non-agricultural workers. On the other hand, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that the rural unemployment rate increased sharply from less than 6% in the first week of March to more than 14% in the most recent week," wrote Prof Himanshu. "There is a glaring lack of fiscal support from the government at a time when India's rural economy has been in deep distress for at least a year," Mint. "As per RBI data, Indian household debt rose to 37.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020. Overall debt held by households was roughly valued at Rs 43.5 trillion, as of March 2021," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan and Advaita Singh. "As India's national debt hit almost 89.6% of GDP in 2020-21, government debt touched 70% of GDP. Corporate debt levels went up to 47%." "The annual UK inflation rate more than doubled in April, as a rise in energy and clothing costs drove prices higher. The jump to 1.5% in April from 0.7% in March, means consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate since March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic," BBC. "India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) climbed to 10.49% in April compared to 7.39% that was recorded last month in March," ET. "Mattress producers to car manufacturers to aluminium foil makers are buying more material than they need to survive the breakneck speed at which the demand for goods is recovering and assuage the primal fear of running out. The frenzy is pushing supply chains to the point of seizing up," ET. We are going down while others are going up and rising prices of commodities will push us down further. Does the RBI know what it is doing?  

Foreigners lose money, Indians lose lives, arrogance unmoved.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government planned Smart Cities Mission to create 100 technology-wired cities in India, wrote Sagarika Ghosh. "Panjim, Goa is a designated smart city that has seen a jaw-dropping administrative collapse." "In the midst of a health emergency public squabbles have broken out between health minister and chief minister," and "At Goa Medical College hospital (GMCH) on city outskirts, over consecutive days, patients kept losing their lives because, bizarrely, a tractor trolley bearing oxygen cylinders could not be properly maneuvered into position," The Indian Express (TIE). "Between May 11 and May 16, dropping oxygen levels at Goa's largest hospital killed 75 COVID-19 patients," Al Jazeera. "A doctor working at GMCH, on the condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera the pipelines carrying oxygen from the main tank were corroded, leading to the leakage." "Of late, we have been hearing this refrain from various quarters that 'the system has failed', 'the system has collapsed', and that 'the system' is to be blamed for the unprecedented pain and misery and loss of thousands of Indian lives," wrote RJD party member Manoj Kumar Jha. "The blatant arrogance of the most important people behind the fiction of the 'system' during the Covid pandemic, particularly the second wave, shows that institutions of accountable and representative government have turned into objects in a museum." It is this arrogance that prevents the government from accepting the judgement of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague which "cited statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BJP ministers, saying they pledged not to use 'retrospective taxation' to overturn Rs 10,247 crore (Rs 102.47 billion) tax demand from Cairn Energy Plc," Business Today (BT). In further evidence of its breathtaking arrogance the government offered to drop interest and penalties if Cairn agreed to pay Rs 5,100 crore (Rs 510 billion) under the Vivaad se Vishwas (from conflict to trust) scheme. Cairn filed a suit in a US District Court seeking to attach Air India planes as it is a government owned airline. The government has been attempting to sell Air India but its exorbitant demand meant that there was not a single offer in 2018, TIE. It has since offered complete transfer of ownership and reduced the debt of the airline by Rs 100 billion but there are still questions about how this debt is being calculated, BT. Had it not been so clever, Cairn could not have targeted Air India planes. Perhaps to reduce legal costs and waste of time, "UK's Cairn Energy Plc has offered to forego $500 million and invest that amount in any oil or gas or renewable energy project identified by the Indian government if new Delhi agrees to honour and international arbitration award and returns the value of loss it incurred because of being taxed retrospectively, sources said," Times of India (TOI). Arrogance cannot bear a defeat. Instead, "Indian authorities asked state-run banks to protect their dollar deposits on concern they could be frozen if Cairn Energy Plc moves to seize India's offshore assets as part of a tax dispute, according to people with knowledge of the matter," Business Standard. "While India has the right to challenge the award, this challenge is likely to fail. As the Cairn tribunal has explained, the dispute between Cairn and India is not a tax dispute but a tax-related investment dispute," Hindustan Times (HT). "UK's Cairn Energy has identified USD 70 billion of Indian assets overseas for potential seizure to collect USD 1.72 billion from the government -- a move if successful will put India in league with Pakistan and Venezuela which faced similar enforcement action over failure to pay arbitration awards," Business Insider. In January, the government "authorized Antrix Corp to ask National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) for the winding up of Devas, a private firm to which the commercial arm of the state-run Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) owes $1.2 billion, awarded by an international arbitration court in 2015 for a broken contract and confirmed by a US federal court last October," Mint. Arrogance brooks no opposition.

Can all Indians be fooled all the time?

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi's approval ratings have fallen to a new low, a survey showed on Tuesday, as the country struggles to contain a devastating second wave of the coronavirus pandemic," "according to US data intelligence company Morning Consult's tracker of a dozen global leaders", Business Today.  Although Modi's ratings have fallen 25 points, they are still at 63%, highest among 13 leaders tracked by Morning Consult. Coming in towards the bottom of the chart are Emmanuel Macron of France, Moon Jae-In of South Korea and Pedro Sanchez of Spain, all on about 35%, while Yoshihide Suga of Japan comes in last on 29%. Modi is the most popular leader despite tens of thousands dying in the recent wave of coronavirus infections so that Seemapuri crematorium in Delhi had to build new pyres in its car park, CNN. "India's holiest river, the Ganges, has been swollen with bodies in recent days," BBC. "Hundreds of corpses have been found floating in the river or buried in the sand of its banks." People are becoming bankrupt. "India's second wave of the coronavirus has not only created shortages of oxygen, medicines and hospital beds, but also of wood for funeral pyres, hearses and crematorium slots, forcing people to pay exorbitant amounts to perform the last rites of loved ones," Hindustan Times (HT). Well known journalist Barkha Dutt lost her father. When she reached the crematorium, "At least three other families had been given the same token number for a cremation at the same time. An argument ensued, a fight erupted, my sister had to call the police for help," HT. The BBC described the timeline of 59-year old Anoop Saxena's first symptoms on 29 April to his death on 3 May, and his family's desperate struggles, from getting tests to finding oxygen and a hospital bed, and then having to rush home just as he died because Anoop's wife was deteriorating. So, why is Modi still so popular? Firstly, he has a cult following of extremely fanatical followers known as 'Bhakts', which means 'devotees', who will defend him ferociously, no matter how egregious Modi's actions. Secondly, Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) brazenly deny any culpability in the surge of infections and deaths due to lack of vaccines, oxygen and hospital beds. "At a time when India is at war with a virulent second wave of Covid-19, Prime Minister Modi and his team are busy battling not the virus, but voices that seek to critique them, or as much as give them feedback," The Print. "Essentially, two things have defined Modi government's responses during the second Covid wave -- a desperate attempt to whitewash its image and making offence your tool of choice." In Modi's home state of Gujarat, editor of the local newspaper Sandesh decided to investigate how many patients were dying of Covid. "On the night of 16 April, the journalists drove 150 km (93 miles) around Ahmedabad and visited 21 cremation grounds. There they counted body bags and pyres, examined registers, spoke to cremation workers, looked at 'slips' which assigned the cause of death, and took photographs and recorded videos," BBC. "At the end of the night the team had counted more than 200 bodies. But the next day, Ahmedabad counted only 25 deaths." In Gujarat, "Divya Bhaskar reported that local bodies issued 123,871 death certificates between March 1 and May 10, compared to 58,000 in the same period last year," HT. An increase of 65,871, while in the same period only 4,218 deaths were officially assigned to Covid. "Around 300 top officials of the central government participated in a workshop entitled Effective Communications," so as to learn how to 'create a positive image of the government', manage 'perceptions through effectively highlighting positive stories and achievements', and making the government 'be seen to be sensitive, bold, quick, responsive, hard-working etc", HT. In short, a concentrated dose of jumla, The Print. What was it about fooling all the people all the time?           

You keep pushing on a string, and then you wonder why.

"Around afternoon on Tuesday, the Sensex was up by around 650 points or 1.3 percent and was trading at 50,240. Between Monday and Tuesday it has gained 1,500 points or 3.1 percent," wrote Sandeep Singh. The refusal by the central government to lockdown, falling number of coronavirus infections and strong performance by some companies are the reasons. Large companies have benefited at the cost of smaller ones in the unorganised sector. Foreign portfolio investors sold a net Rs 96.59 billion worth of Indian equities in April and a net of Rs 89.09 billion in May, while domestic investors bought a net of Rs 110.88 billion in April and a net of Rs 28.39 billion to date in May, The Indian Express (TIE). 2021 is much worse than 2020, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Global investors who kept faith in China and India last year, aren't waiting for equity analysts to change their minds. They sold India in April and bought South Korea and Taiwan," Mint. "India has a base of around 6.33 crore (63.3 million) MSMEs out of which 6.30 crore (over 99 percent) are micro-enterprises, according to the MSME Ministry's annual report 2020-21. Small enterprises are 3.31 lakh (331 thousand) and 0.05 lakh are medium enterprises accounting for 0.52 percent and 0.01 percent of total estimated MSMEs," The Financial Express. "Over 82 percent of more than 250 small businesses in India said that they had a negative Covid impact while 70 percent believed their pre-Covid level recovery to take nearly a year, according to a survey by Dun and Bradstreet. "With seven million job losses in April, India's unemployment rate rose to 8% in April," according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), The Wire. "With 73.5 lakh (7.35 million) job losses, the number of employees, both salaried and non-salaried, fell from 39.81 crore (398.1 million) in March to 39.08 crore in April, for the third straight month." A report by CMIE and Centre for Economic Data and Analysis (CEDA) at Ashoka University analysed "employment data across seven sectors, viz agriculture, mines, manufacturing, real estate and construction, financial services, non-financial services, and public administrative services. Between them, these sectors account for 99% of total employment in India," wrote Udit Misra. They showed that since 2016, "The number of people employed in the manufacturing sector of the economy has come down from 51 million to 27 million" while jobs in low-paying agriculture have gone up. Manufacturing businesses have been shedding jobs since well before Covid. "While estimates on the likely impact on poverty vary, a permanent loss of income for most people at the lower end of our income distribution is beyond dispute," wrote Prof Himanshu. "The pandemic has not only disrupted the economy, but also contributed to a disruption in access to education, one of the most effective contributors to inter-generational mobility. Most children in rural areas and also from poorer households in urban areas have had their studies badly disrupted," Mint. "In 2020-21, 61 companies offered to buy back shares worth Rs 39,295 crore (Rs 392.95 billion) according to data from Prime Database. This compares to 52 and 63 firms that made similar offers totaling Rs 19,972 crore and Rs 55,587 crore in 2019-20 and 2018-19 respectively," Hindustan Times (HT). This indicates lack of investment opportunities. "Over the past few years, the government has tried unsuccessfully to get the private sector to invest, even acceding to its multiple demands and offering it many incentives. Yet the Indian private sector has refused to increase investments in additional brownfield or greenfield capacity," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Gross fixed capital formation reached a high of 27.2% of GDP in 2011-12 and has hovered at 21-22% from 2015-16 to 2018-19, Mint. Why should industries invest in new projects when the government is killing demand through high taxes and negative real interest rates despite high inflation? If you push on a string, you end up putting your cart before the horse. Common sense.  

You may think you are all powerful, but the US Fed may decide.

"India's exports in April jumped nearly three-folds to $30.21 billion from $10.17 billion in the same month last year, according to commerce ministry's preliminary data released on Sunday. Imports too rose to USD 45.45 billion last month as against $17.09 billion in April 2020," Business Insider. Trade deficit was $15.24 billion. The Economic survey 2020-21 predicted a current account surplus of 2% in the last financial year after a gap of 17 years, CNBC TV18. India ran a current account deficit averaging 2.2% of GDP in the last 10 years. Because of robust foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) we were expected to have a balance of payment "(BoP) surplus of over $100 billion in 2020/21 and around $55 billion with downside risks in FY22", Reuters. "Engineering goods exports zoomed 234.63% in April 2021 indicating that recovery in outbound trade is well on track and outlook remains positive," Economic Times (ET). These are in comparison to April last year when world trade was almost in shutdown due to the pandemic. "Manufacturing activity in April improved a tad as new export orders rose at the fastest pace since October, cancelling out the impact of new domestic factory orders and output falling to eight-month lows," Hindustan Times (HT). The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April "rose to 55.5 after falling to a seven-month low of 55.4 in March". "Retail inflation for the month of April softened to 4.29 percent (from 5.52% in March) while the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) surged to over 22 percent for March mainly on account of low base effect,"ET. However, "Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation quickened to 10.49% in April from a contraction of 1.7% in the year-ago period. While food inflation accelerated by 4.92%, inflation for fuel and manufacturing items quickened to 20.94% and 9.01%, respectively. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel prices, shot up to a record 8.4% in April," HT. Since the goods and services tax (GST) is calculated as a percentage of the price, GST collection in April rose to a record Rs 1.41384 trillion, All India Radio. "Fuel prices have gone up by more than Rs 20 since May 2020, even though the base cost of petrol and diesel has risen by only Rs 3-4 a litre during this time, as last year's sharp tax hikes harden the pinch of the current oil price rally," Times of India (TOI). India's cost of crude oil has "risen from $31 per barrel in May 2020 to $66 at present". Not just last year, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been collecting extortionate taxes on fuel ever since coming to power in 2014. Crude oil price was around $100 a barrel in 2014, fell sharply to less than $30 by 2016, and has risen to around $66 today. The government earned Rs 11 trillion in 4.5 years to November 2018 from taxes on fuel, said the Congress. In 2020-21, even as people struggled with a punishing collapse in earnings, the government increased excise duties on fuel and earned Rs 2.95 trillion from April 2020 to January 2021. Price of petrol in the US is around $3 per US gallon, which works out to about Rs 58 per liter. When Modi came to power in 2014, everyone got 6 subsidised cylinders of domestic gas at Rs 414 each and any more than that cost Rs 1,241 per cylinder, India Today. Today, the lowest price of a cylinder of gas is at Rs 819 even for the poorest household in rural areas, ET. "In a country where close to 20% of the population lives below the poverty line and food is a major item of their consumption basket, any rise in inflation, especially food inflation, hurts the poor. Desperately," wrote  Mythili Bhusnurmath. "Moreover, globally, commodity prices are already on the rise." "As the US economy recovers, the dollar strengthens and US interest rates rise, the rupee is bound to weaken in response, adding to inflationary pressures here." "While it is true that it will take several more months of data to assess the nature and persistence of higher inflation, there is already sufficient corporate and macroeconomic evidence to question the assertion that rising prices will be 'transitory'." wrote Mohamed El-Erian in the US. Since the next general election is in 2024 Modi is relaxed. The US Federal Reserve is expected to start tightening in 2023, CNBC. Then all hell will break lose.   

Can a weak man handle so many flashpoints?

Gaza has erupted again. "While Hamas fires rockets into Israeli cities, Israel targets Hamas assets inside Gaza," BBC. "More than 40 people were killed in the latest Israeli air strikes on Gaza, officials there say. Israel's army say Palestinian militants have fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israel over the past week," BBC. "Israel withdrew its troops and Jewish settlements from Gaza in 2005, after a second far more violent intifada. The following year, Hamas won a landslide victory in Palestine elections. That triggered a power struggle with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party, culminating in a week of clashes in 2007 that left Hamas in control," India Today. After a telephone warning to the watchman, Israel bombed a building, it says, had intelligence and military offices of Hamas. "First, small missiles struck the block in Gaza City's Rimal district, then boom, the building crumbled, footage showed," US News. "Israel's army makes a call, tells residents to evacuate, tap-tap-tap go the small missiles as a final warning -- and then a big one brings the building down." For four years during President Donald Trump's tenure there was peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors, despite Trump recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2018 and moving the US Embassy to the city. Not only was there peace, but at least four Arab countries, starting with the UAE, signed peace agreements with Israel in, what is known as, the Abraham Accords. Whether this is part of President Joe Biden's vindictive reversal of all of Trump's policies we don't know, but it is already costing lot of innocent lives on both sides. In fact, Biden's party, the Democrats want him to blame Israel for the violence, CNN. "Muslim rights groups had hailed Biden in the first days of his presidency for ending the Trump administration's ban on travel from predominantly Muslim countries." Israel has just over 9 million population of which 21% are Arabs, while Arab nations have a total population of over 400 million. "Twenty-seven days before the first rocket was fired from Gaza this week, a squad of Israeli police officers entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, brushed the Palestinians attendants aside and strode across its vast limestone courtyard. Then they cut the cables to the loudspeakers that broadcast prayers to the faithful from four medieval minarets," wrote Biden supporter New York Times. AP, another Biden supporter, was "shocked and horrified" when a building housing its offices was demolished by the Israeli military. "We have had no indication Hamas was in the building or active in the building," AP President and CEO Gary Pruitt said in a statement. Hamas is not going to hang a signboard advertising its presence, is it? Especially since Hamas has been on the US list of terrorist organisations since 1997. "Early Friday, just after midnight, the Israeli military put out an ominous statement to the media: 'IDF air and ground troops are currently attacking the Gaza strip'," US News. Israel started amassing troops along the border and started firing artillery shells at targets across the border. "The Israeli moves sent Hamas fighters rushing into defensive positions in an underground network of tunnels known as 'the Metro'," after which, "Israel called in 160 warplanes and bombarded the tunnels for 40 minutes, the military said." Scores of terrorists died. Biden is seen as a weak president and Chinese government adviser Zheng Yongnian warned that he may start a war to divert attention from domestic problems. Harassment of US vessels in the Persian Gulf by Iranian ships had stopped since 2018 but in April Iranians boats maneuvered near US ships for four hours," Fox. Having lied about Trump's relations with Russia Biden is in a dilemma about India buying Russian S400 missiles, which we have every right to do. Winning a controversial election was easy. The world is complicated.

We are no innocent lambs, we are stupid sheep.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said he felt the pain people have endured amid the second wave of Covid-19 as he released the eighth instalment of over Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion) to more than 95 million farmers under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme via video-conferencing," Hindustan Times (HT). It answers Tavleen Singh who asked, "Is the Prime Minister privately tormented by the disease and death that has spread across the country on his watch," The Indian Express (TIE). "The Prime Minister's image has taken a huge hit. May I humbly suggest that it could improve considerably if he stopped work on the Central Vista project." That will never stop. "It will include futuristic offices for its political secretaries, an underground railway, and an opulent mansion for the 70-year-old premier, which was quietly slipped into the plans after they had been approved," Daily Mail. "For the first time since the Modi government came to power in 2014, senior Union ministers and top functionaries in the BJP and RSS are on the defensive and unsure of how -- or even what -- to communicate to the people as the second Covid curve rages across the country," TIE. "The country's second wave has devastated major cities and regional hubs, with hospitals running out of oxygen and medicine," CNN. "But in rural areas and far-flung villages, doctors and clinics are in even shorter supply -- leaving residents to fight for their lives without access to care." So what is the answer? Resort to tried and tested tactics. First is to throw handouts at the vote-bank, as Modi has done. The second is to deny, not just one elephant, but a herd of elephants, standing in the room. "Despite registering the highest number of cases globally every day, WHO report says India is yet to label itself in the category of community transmission (CT), opting instead for the lower, less serious classification called 'cluster of cases'," News 18. A sure-fire way of reducing infections is to reduce testing. "Bengaluru: Despite repeated warnings from members of the Covid Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) not to reduce testing, the Department of Health and Family Welfare has consistently reduced the number of tests over the last three weeks," The New India Express. Bengaluru is capital of Karnataka which has a BJP government. Death is absolute, so, in Modi's Gujarat, "Dainik Bhaskar reported that local bodies issued 123,871 death certificates between March 1 and May 10 compared to 58,000 in the same period last year. The data was based on disclosures by municipal authorities in 33 districts and eight major cities, the paper reported," HT. If nothing works, resort to old fashioned violence to put the fear of god into people. "A 19-YEAR-OLD school dropout, a 30-year-old e-rickshaw driver, a 61-year-old maker of wooden frames -- they are among 25 arrested by Delhi Police, in the middle of a raging pandemic, for allegedly pasting posters with comments critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the Covid vaccination drive," TIE. Uttar Pradesh (UP) is ruled by a BJP government with three-quarter of seats in the assembly. "Among the states by the second wave of Covid-19, Uttar Pradesh exemplifies the mix of incompetence and callousness that has characterised the Indian states response to the crisis the most," wrote Profs Mahmudabad and Verniers. "Beyond denialism, the then Covid-positive chief minister Yogi Adityanath, announced that citizens reporting shortages would be detained under the National Security Act for 'spreading rumours' and 'spoiling the atmosphere' and that their property would be seized," TIE. This is not an empty threat as Shashank Yadav found, BBC. UP forced government school teachers to supervise panchayat elections last month. Unions say over 1000 have died of the infection, including 8-month pregnant Kalyani, wrote Barkha Dutt. All this carnage is because Modi has "an insatiable, almost suicidal appetite for risk born of a compulsion to keep reinforcing an already swollen image of himself," wrote Prem Shankar Jha. We Indians are sheep. We cooperate in our own slaughter.