Monday, November 05, 2018

No policies necessary for elections in India.

Starting on 12 November elections to assemblies will be held in 5 states, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana and results will be announced on 11 December. Of these, opinion polls suggest that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) will retain its power with absolute majority. The present Chief Minister KC Rao is the most preferred to remain as the chief minister. Prime Minister Modi's party the BJP is expected to win only 7 seats, compared to 80 for TRS and 20 for the Congress. The BJP is expected to lose control of Rajasthan with Congress getting absolute majority with 115 seats out of a total of 200. Winning states is very important for Modi because assemblies elect members to the upper house the Rahya Sabha where the BJP is the largest party with 73 seats out of a total of 245. By some calculation the BJP will not get a majority in the Rajya Sabha before 2024. Mizoram is a tiny state where the BJP is not expected to do well. The BJP must keep control of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, both of which have chief ministers looking for a fourth term. One opinion poll suggested that the BJP will win in Madhya Pradesh and Shavraj Singh Chauhan is the most popular choice for chief minister. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh of the BJP will win a fourth term, perhaps helped by third parties taking votes away from the Congress. Candidates are making every effort to get close to voters, shaving men, stitching clothes with women and even helping out with making dosas. Then there are the handouts. Madhya Pradesh announced waiver of electricity bills as early as June. The Congress is promising loan waiver for farmers, income support for farmers and new jobs. Studies show that handouts are actually harmful for the poor. High levels of subsidies in electricity and fertiliser has left no money for investment in agriculture, so that farmers have not progressed economically, showed studies by Prof A Gulati and associates. "Every Rs 10 lakh invested on farm research potentially pulled 328 people out of poverty." "A similar amount spent on fertiliser subsidy brought only 26 people above the poverty line." "Likewise, every Rs 1 spent on agricultural research and development increased farm GDP by Rs 11.2" but "every rupee spent on fertiliser subsidy added only Rs 0.88 to agri GDP." Similarly, the Right to Education Act has worsened standards of reading and maths in government schools. The top 10% of the population in India hold 73% of the wealth so it makes sense to throw handouts at the vote bank with taxpayer money. It makes the poor think that politicians are helping them and politicians can continue with their lives of extreme luxury because of votes of the poor. The poor never become middle class.

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