Friday, January 05, 2018

The more they try to stimulate the more we lose.

"The government's stated policy is to curb the export of financial markets to offshore centres such as Singapore and Dubai," wrote M Philipose. That is why it set up an International National Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Gandhinagar. But wrong policies are having an opposite effect. "After handing over large chunks of the exchange-traded index futures and dollar-rupee futures markets to Singapore and Dubai, India has set things up nicely for these centres to seize a sizable share of the single stock futures market." In 2007, share of Singapore Exchange in Nifty futures was just 6-7%, today it is 70%. At $8.4 billion it is double that of the NSE. Difference in taxes is one reason but the biggest reason could be uncertainty as rules keep changing from one budget to the next. Companies invest with an eye to future profits and taxes are one among many things they look at before investing. Apple is demanding tax concessions and permission to import parts before setting up manufacturing of iPhones in India. Meanwhile, Chinese companies increased sales of smartphones to Rs 225 billion in 2016-17 from Rs 29 billion the previous year. India attracted $60.1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in 2016-17, while China got $133.7 billion in 2016. Why is the government so desperate to increase tax collections. Because many sectors of the economy need government support. Bad loans constitute 9.85% of the total loan portfolio of our banks, with only 4 major economies -- Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland -- in a worse condition. Banks are gradually cleaning up their books, hoping there is no nasty shock, such as a major default, waiting for them, wrote T Bandopadhyay. The government has promised Rs 2.11 trillion to recapitalize banks, out of a total of nearly Rs 10 trillion. The collapse of rural purchasing power is the reason for the weakness of the economy, wrote Prof Himanshu. Which means higher support prices for crops and more government spending. The government is to borrow an extra Rs 500 billion which will increase fiscal deficit to 3.5% from 3.2%, projected in the budget. Retail inflation was low last year because of a reduction in money supply, as people deposited their cash into banks because of demonetization, wrote M Chakravarty. Now that supply of money is becoming normal inflation is expected to go up. Increase in fiscal deficit and rising oil prices will add to it. Prices have been controlled by a strong rupee which makes imports cheaper but this is hurting local manufacturing and imposing a cost on the Reserve Bank as it tries to keep the rupee from rising too fast, wrote A Iyer. Despite government efforts India is unlikely to grow faster in 2018, wrote R Sharma. We need to be consistent. Constant change is discouraging.

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