Saturday, January 27, 2018

How to balance this year's budget?

In another 3 days the Finance Minister will present next year's budget, which is usually an event of great excitement in India. In previous years most of the speech had to do with tinkering of excise duties and sales tax on various goods and services, but with the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax last year, indirect taxes are fixed by a GST Council independent of the budget. This year the focus is on direct taxes, personal income tax and corporate tax, and on government expenditure. After the elections for Gujarat assembly where the BJP, the party of the Prime Minister, won with fewer seats people are of the opinion that the government has to increase spending on rural voters. Rural distress is purely man made, wrote an angry AV Jakhar. When prices of food products rise the government blocks exports and increases imports to prevent a rise in prices because food inflation causes hardship to the poor who are considered the 'vote bank'. But when prices crash because of surplus production the government does not recompense farmers adequately, leading to financial losses and hardship. Potato farmers lost Rs 300 billion collectively in 2014 and 220 billion in 2016. In 2017 average loss for potato farmers was Rs 1,04,000 each. So where is the extra money going to come from? The government is having to borrow an extra Rs 200 billion this year to meet its expenses. The price of crude oil has risen from the lows of 2016. As the price of crude fell, the government increased excise duties so that consumer prices on fuel in India remained high. High transport costs will increase prices of all goods. Either the government has to forego taxes to reduce fuel costs or face the prospect of the Reserve Bank increasing interest rate. The US cut corporate tax rate to 21% last month which makes India less attractive for US business investment. Naturally, companies in India also want a cut in corporate tax rates in India. The Indian pharmaceutical industry earned $33 billion in the US in 2016 and hopes to earn $55 billion this year. However, some big pharma companies are planning to increase production in the US to take advantage of lower taxes, which means lower taxes in India. There is one source which could yield a lot of taxes and that is long term capital gains on shares, wrote R Singhal. At present shares held for longer than 1 year have to pay a securities transaction tax but no tax on capital gains, which can be huge with the market soaring. This is a bizarre handout to the rich, wrote A Nageswaran, which should be stopped. A tax on capital gains on shares could raise Rs 450 billion. If foreign investors start taking money out it will worsen the current account deficit and weaken the rupee. It will be an interesting tightrope walk.

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