Tuesday, October 10, 2017

How to find solutions to the puzzle of India?

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, increased its forecast for global economic growth to 3.6% in 2017, while reducing India's growth prospects to 6.7%. "IMF expects India's economy to recover sharply in 2018 to grow 7.4%, still 30 basis points lower than its earlier estimate in April." That is good, but will it help the people? "The vast majority of India businesses are in the informal sector. The Sixth Economic Census found that 94.6% of non-agricultural establishments in the country employed five workers or less." wrote M Chakravarty. As farms became smaller, people were forced off their land into city slums, "or they scratched out a precarious living by supplementing their income by wage labour or by setting up petty businesses, or they took their lives". "78.2% of non-agricultural enterprises were self financed" which means that "The huge informal sector is, for the most part, a vast sink of disguised unemployment, a reflection of the failure of the formal sector to create jobs for the masses." The Goods and Services Tax, of GST, is supposed to force the informal sector to get registered and become formal. Will this suddenly make them world class and create millions of jobs? Hardly, because GST is extremely complicated which raises the cost of compliance, wrote Prof I Rajaraman. Most of these people have little education so they will have to pay accountants, which will increase costs further. But it is not only because of GST, wrote Himanshu. Manufacturing and construction sectors have been declining since last year, so jobs for labor are down. Stalled real estate projects have hit a nine-year high, the rate being higher in the commercial than the residential sector. GST will hit low end manufacturing, like toys and textiles, which create jobs for the poor. The World Bank warned of a jobs crisis due to automation. Automation is highly capital intensive so businesses in the informal sector will not be able to compete and will have to shut down. Why so much attention on GST? Because very few Indians pay income tax. The government is patting itself on the back because it was able to snare 28.2 million people into filing tax returns in 2016-17, an increase of 24.7% over the previous year. This is a country of 1,300 million people. Politicians get infuriated because there are hundreds of millions of properties, so they think that there are that many rich people in India. A survey showed that most people in India live in their own homes, and 97% of the poorest 20% of the population own their own residences. With earnings so meager only the better off can afford to pay rent,the poor will starve. That makes India a big puzzle and solutions difficult to find. Will GST improve living conditions? Most unlikely, wrote A Ranade. Not by increasing taxes, at least.

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