Thursday, October 05, 2017

Giving stupid ideas could be dangerous.

"There is a treasure chest Modi government can unlock and use for investment: Foreign reserves," wrote M Guruswamy. India is unable to attract capital investments to make the economy grow. The Prime Minister "promised the country a hundred new cities, a nationwide grid of high-speed rail networks, a national river-linking programme and so many other major nationally transformational projects." The reality is, "A hundred new cities have now become a hundred 'smart cities', which means little more than free Wi-Fi networks. The nationwide fast trains grid has now become an exorbitant and apparently uneconomic single bullet train joining Ahmedabad and Mumbai. Similarly, all other feasible and exciting promises made are now mere caricatures of what were promised." So what is his solution? He suggests that Modi should spend $300 billion of the $400 in foreign reserves carefully built up by the Reserve Bank to prevent a run on the rupee like in August 2013. Prof Kaushik Basu apparently thinks that India needs only $80 billion in foreign reserves. The same quote is advanced by G Singh who questions whether "Should India hold $400 billion of reserves?" He says that $400 billion is 78.4% of India's total external debt, which is too much. Apparently, "India can buy an inexpensive credit line from the International Monetary Fund or elsewhere." "India already has a credit line to the tune of $50 billion. Additional credit lines can be bought." Great. Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs, hold stocks and bonds in excess of $180 billion. If there is a massive sell off, as happened in 1997, $80 billion may not be enough. Since then countries have been building up their reserves and there are 7 countries with reserves greater than that of India. Should our government borrow money to pay off FIIs, which will mean the Indian taxpayer paying for profits of foreign funds? That is unconscionable. "Poor macroeconomic management, both by the central bank and political regimes over the past several years, is leading India toward an imminent vicious cycle of low growth and high inflation, making it exceedingly vulnerable to emerging domestic and geopolitical risks," wrote R Govil. Apart from demonetization, dismissed as a money laundering scheme by A Shourie, and the GST, which is a mess of multiple rates, all Modi has done is to repackage Congress schemes with new names, a fact-check showed. Infrastructure takes a long time. The danger is that Modi will use our foreign reserves in handouts to win general elections in 2019. It is a stupid and irresponsible suggestion.

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