Monday, July 10, 2017

Will it be like going downhill without brakes?

"The world is about to change even faster," predicted Barry Ritholtz, writing about the effect of technology on "markets, companies and labour". It is the pace of change that makes it difficult to control or even predict its effects. "The Wall Street Journal noted it took the landline telephone 75 years to hit 50 million users. But, "it took airplanes 68 years, the automobile 62 years, light bulbs 46 years, and television 22 years to hit the same user milestones." "YouTube, Facebook and Twitter hit that 50-million user mark in four, three and two years respectively", but that is nothing compared to the Angry Birds app "which took a mere 35 days". Of course, the world population would have been a about 1.2 billion, compared to 7.5 billion today, when the telephone was invented, and automobiles and air travel were very expensive, compared to average earnings when first introduced, whereas YouTube, Facebook and Twitter are free, while even poor people can afford smart phones today. "Consider the combination of genomics and molecular biology, and what this might mean for longevity and the treatment of diseases." Indeed, but what about the danger of designer babies? Today, the US is struggling to contain proliferation of nuclear weapons by rogue states. Donald Trump warned that Iran must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, and North Korea has warned the US of the dangers of a nuclear war after B-1B strategic bombers flew along its border. Why is the US in such a pickle? Because it allowed the invention of the hydrogen bomb, and then tested it on civilian populations in Japan. Knowing the preference for boys in India genetic engineering will make gender selection easy, badly skewing our demography. Humans have used every game-changing discovery or invention, from learning how to control fire to inventing the wheel to telegraph and the airplane, for fighting wars. There is nothing to prevent a regime like that of China from creating an army of large men with little intelligence who will fight to the death because they will have no fear. Ritholtz finds Uber a great example of progress. "Having disrupted the taxi industry, Uber's self-driving cars are poised to disrupt demand for drivers in Pittsburgh and Arizona." True, but Uber's model is under attack, including in the US. A court in London has already ruled that Uber drivers are employees and not contractors, and so entitled to a minimum wage and sick leave. The proliferation of the gig economy, with no benefits or security, is not a desirable future. At the very least we are losing our privacy which gives complete powers of control to politicians. If we are not taken over by armies of robots, or destroyed by cyber warfare where rogue regimes take over control nuclear arsenals, we are in danger of becoming slaves of our own governments. Sweet dreams. 

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