Saturday, July 01, 2017

Not just a choice between meat and veg.

Cities and towns occupy about 3% of Earth's total land area and 35-40% of land is used for agriculture, but 40% of food is thrown away. About 75% of agricultural land is used for growing feed for animals, that we then eat. The total population is expected to grow from 7.6 billion today to 9.8 billion in 2050. World population is rising by 83 million people every year, the same number as the total population of Germany today. About 4.9 billion of that will be in just 2 countries, India and China. By 2050, India will have 1.7 billion people, overtaking China to become the most populous nation on earth, wrote Prof Leela Visaria. We will need to grow more food to feed so many people but all these people will need housing to live in and jobs in offices or factories to earn money to buy food. If land is used up in construction how much will be left for agriculture? Agriculture has a devastating effect on the environment, as forests are cut down to provide land for growing crops or pastures for grazing animals, pesticides and fertilisers pollute water sources, and greenhouse gases, like methane, cause global warming. The total land area of Earth is 57 million sq miles, out of which 12 million sq miles are arable, which means fit for agriculture. That is just over 20%. In 2006, there was 1.15 acres of arable land per person in the world, by 2039 that will be down to just 0.53 acres. 38,610 sq miles of arable land are being lost every year, due to erosion of top soil, salinization and rising sea levels. One suggestion is for everyone to become vegetarian. Pastures would be converted to forests which will decrease greenhouse gases because of photosynthesis, and numbers wild animals will increase. The alarming thing is that if everyone becomes vegetarian, mortality will decrease by 7 million a year, and by 8 million a year if everyone becomes a vegan. That will increase the number of people to feed and the pressure on land will grow. If everyone becomes vegan, which means no milk or eggs either, what happens to the millions of livestock and chicken? Are they to be slaughtered or will they be set free, in which case methane production will continue. Trouble is that meat provides a lot more nutrition than fruits and vegetables, which means people will have to eat a lot more quantity, if they become vegetarian. Fruits and vegetables are perishable and so need processing to preserve. If that is taken into account then meat is more friendly to the environment. Since 75% of Earth's surface is covered in water it is no surprise that NASA has predicted increased rainfall in tropical areas, as temperature incresea. That may cause increased floods and destruction of crops. In the past, massive population growths led to periods of instability and collapse of sections of society. The world is infinitely more dangerous than it has ever been. Uncontrolled migration is already creating stress. How long before that leads to instability?

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