Are the 2019 general elections decided already?

Results of elections for assemblies in 5 states were declared yesterday and showed a clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in both Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. As the state with the largest population, of nearly 224 million people, UP gets to elect 85 members of parliament, the largest number of all states in India. Bihar comes a distant second with 54 MPs. Out of a total of 403 seats in the UP assembly the BJP won 312, far higher than two-thirds majority. The Congress got a mere 7 seats out of the 105 it contested losing out even in Amethi and Raebareli, which are the parliamentary constituencies of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi respectively. In Uttarakhand, which was a part of UP till 2000, the BJP won 57 out of a total of 70 seats, the ruling Congress got just 11 seats and Chief Minister Harish Rawat lost both the seats he contested. Naturally, all the pundits have gone ballistic, saying that demonetization of high denomination notes had no effect and that Modi is on course to win general elections in 2019. But we need to step back and take a deep breath. 2019 is still far away and "a week is a long time in politics". UP has a habit of throwing out the party in power, so maybe the Congress suffered for tying up with the ruling Samajwadi Party. The Congress wiped out the Akali Dal/BJP combine in Punjab, winning 77 out of 117 seats. Despite accusations of immense corruption against the Badals both father and son have won their seats. In Goa, which had a BJP government, Chief Minister Parsekar along with most of his cabinet lost. The BJP got 13 seats out of 40, the Congress got 17. In Manipur, which the BJP were sure of winning, it got 21 out of 60 seats, the Congress got 28. The BJP could yet form governments in these 2 states by bribing smaller parties and independents but the fact is that it was second to Congress in both. Perhaps the biggest news is the humiliation suffered by Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal, who was hoping to become the chief minister of Punjab. His Aam Aadmi Party came a distant second with 20 seats in Punjab and got no seat in Goa. He has done almost nothing for Delhi. The roads are in disrepair, prolonged electricity outages are frequent and there is filth everywhere. This despite a budget of Rs 476 billion for the last financial year. Ruchi Gupta wrote that Kejriwal's claims of working for the poor are just bluff. There maybe come truth in that. The Comptroller and Auditor General reported that AAP spent Rs 287 million in advertisements outside the state of Delhi for no good reason. So what about Modi? Will he be the monarch of India for life? Indira Gandhi won big in elections in 1971 and again in 1980, even after the notorious Emergency. Rajiv Gandhi won a landslide in 1984 but lost his way thereafter. After big victories come big blunders. We wait.