It is all because of a Russian after all.

Normally, a new year is just an excuse for having a few drinks and making silly resolutions which no one keeps. But this year there is a hint of excitement because of the unexpected victory of Donald Trump who has no experience in politics or government and hence no track record. We maybe at the other side of the world from the US but his policies will affect us. It is possible that the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi banned high denomination notes on 8 November, the day of the US election, because he expected Hillary Clinton to win and things to continue as before. But with Trump's victory he is running around changing rules everyday, sometimes twice in one day. Yesterday, he announced that anyone possessing more than 10 banned notes after March will be fined and imprisoned for 4 years. So if you find some notes in the pocket of a pair of trousers that you forgot about you go to prison. Brilliant. Trump's economic policies will be vital for us. Our IT companies are preparing for a reduced number of H-1B visas under which Indian workers on lower salaries could be taken to the US for a limited period. HCL is already looking to employ Americans. It is not just about the US. What will happen to China and Europe will have a big impact on our economy. The European Central Bank decided to continue with its bond buying program till the end of 2017 but with elections in France and Germany, the 2 core members of the European Union, no one is sure how the EU will fare. The Bank of International Settlements predicts a credit crisis in China. This could be severely exacerbated if the new administration decides to go ahead with taxes on imports into the US while making exports tax free. Anantha Nageswaran in certain of economic crisis in Europe and China and predicts a recession in the US if interest rate goes up any higher. If that happens stock markets and bonds will fall all over the world and fund managers will rush into safe US treasuries, which will make the dollar stronger. In the past a strong dollar resulted in a number of crises. A strong dollar could hurt our growth even though exports might get a boost. Companies, which have borrowed in foreign currencies to take advantage of very low interest rates abroad, will suffer and fuel prices will go up, raising retail inflation. With a severe contraction in money supply, because of demonetization, the rupee could go into free fall. That is why Modi is frantic to push us into a cashless system. Why such panic? Apparently it all began in Russia in 1863 when a man, named Nikolai Chernyshevsky wrote a book titled,'What is to be Done? Stories about the New People'. Ayn Rand was influenced by the book and Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan was her disciple. He reduced bank regulations and interest rate, known as the Greenspan Put, which resulted in the crisis of 2008. Hence all the gloom. All because of a Russian.