Does Xi Jinping know that it's all in the economy, stupid?

Xi Jinping has been consolidating power ever since he became President of China. First he became the Commander in Chief of the army. Then he was named 'core leader', an honorific enjoyed by Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. On social media he has been hailed as 'mighty Uncle Xi', an imperial term used to greet the emperor in the past. The Chinese Communist Party, CCP, holds a National Congress every 5 years and the next one will be held in the autumn of 2017. The National Congress elects the next generation of leaders of the Party, including the General Secretary, members of the Politburo, members of the Central Military Commission and members of the all powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo. Having concentrated so much power in his hands surely Xi Jinping will be able to pick his people to all the positions of power? "But looks can be deceiving, and his consolidation of power may not be as unassailable as it seems," writes Professor Minxin Pei. After the Tiananmen massacre of 1989 the Party has avoided power struggles by picking the next president and prime minister years before the hand over of power. "In 1992, Deng Xiaoping picked Hu Jintao to take over in 2002. In 2007, the party's top leaders agreed to anoint Xi as Hu's successor, five years before the latter's term expired," writes Minxin Pei. Xi is assured of the next 5 years as President but may not agree to pick his successor. That will give him the options of picking his own man in 2022 or to stay on for a third term. Five of the 7 members of the Standing Committee reach retirement age next year and opponents will resist fiercely if Xi tries to get his own people elected to those positions. What weapons do his opponents have? The economy. There is debate about how big or risky the debt burden is for China. Some economists think that since most of the debt is in Chinese yuan and domestic savings are 50% of GDP there is no danger but the Bank of International Settlements says that red lights are flashing for the Chinese economy. No one knows for certain but some guess that the government is suppressing the debt crisis to keep the economy growing at all costs. One indication of a weak economy is the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, which has been falling against the dollar. To protect their wealth the rich transfer money abroad, which weakens the yuan even further. The government has limited the amount of currency that maybe transferred abroad. There are 2 problems. The yuan has been accepted in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights, which means that it should be tradable. And then, there is the underhand way of transferring money abroad, known to all of us Indians as 'hawala transactions'. If Trump helps a little by increasing taxes on Chinese imports the mess could really hit the fan. 2017 is going to be fun.