Saturday, July 16, 2016

Should we not have an expert to manage our money?

We have written about this many many times. Politicians in India, from every party, have one conviction, encased in concrete, which is low inflation stimulates economic growth. Apparently, high inflation does not matter in emerging economies so if growth can somehow be accelerated it will increase tax collection, which will allow politicians to buy votes with more handouts. We would like to ask one question," Would any prime minister appoint an economist or an accountant as the Attorney General?" If not, why is every Finance Minister a lawyer? Do we not have any competent economist, financier or accountant to do the job? It maybe that an expert will have his own opinion on the best course for the economy, maybe honorable and refuse to follow the same imbecile policies as politicians have been repeatedly asking for, making us suffer. It is no surprise that former Governor of the Reserve Bank, D Subbarao has published his autobiography in which he confirms what we have been writing for so long, and that is that Chidambaram tried to pressure him to reduce interest rate, when he did not want to. We would suggest that Chidambaram succeeded because retail inflation was out of control from 2008 to 2013 when Subbarao was the governor. The interest rate was 7% in 2008 but he brought it down sharply in 2009 to 4.25%, probably helping the Congress to win re-election. The average inflation rates were 8.32% in 2008, 10.83% iin 2009, 12.11% in 2010, 8.87% in 2011, 9.30% in 2012 and 10.92% in 2013, when Raghuram Rajan came in and increased rates to 8% and inflation fell to 6.37% in 2014. In August 2013, the rupee fell to 69 to the dollar, so that Rajan had to increase returns on NRI deposits in banks to attract $28 billion to stabilise the currency. Subbarao says that he held rates steady even under pressure from Chidambaram. " There is a price to pay, of course, for not falling in line. The government has several ways of showing its displeasure, and the way they chose to do so with me was by going against my recommendations in the reappointment of deputy governors in the bank," writes Subbarao. It is exemplified by the churlish manner in which the present government has dealt with the extension of Raghuram Rajan's contract. The Finance Minister asked recently why people should get a high interest on their term deposits in banks. He has no compunction about making us poorer through negative real interest rates, because everything is provided for him by the taxpayer. Politicians better watch out. Power is controlled by the Hindi states because they have the most members in the parliament. Hindi states get most of the money from the budget which is causing resentment in the South. High taxes and inflation affect everyone, so they see this as punishment. An economist as finance minister, is that too much to ask for?

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