Tuesday, July 19, 2016

It seems like something we have seen before.

When the Egyptian revolution took place in January, 2011 commentators were hoping that Egypt will transform into a secular democracy like Turkey. At that time we argued that there was a greater possibility of Egypt turning into another Pakistan because, like the Pakistani army, the army in Egypt controls a large chunk of business in the country. If the army staged a coup the Muslim Brotherhood will resort to terrorist attacks like the Taliban in Pakistan. We also predicted tha Erdogan will slowly turn Turkey into an Islamist state. About 4 days back there was apparently a coup in Turkey. Seems that two F-16 fighter jets locked onto President Erdogan's plane, as it was flying to Istanbul from Marmaris, but did not fire. Also apparently there was an attaack on his palace in Marmaris (how many palaces does this guy have?) minutes after he had left. Seems that the entire coup attempt had been designed to fail, doesn't it? For a coup to be successful the plotters should seize the media and be able to convince people of their imminent victory, which brings support from fence-sitters in defence forces. Erdogan was able to contact a private television station from his iPhone to demonstrate that he was still free. This is the excuse that allows Erdogan to purge over 50,000 people, consisting of army personnel, police, judges, civil servants and teachers. Iran also purged the armed forces after the revolution in 1979 but had to release many from prison when the war with Iraq broke out in 1980. Previously, Erdogan got many army officers arrested on charges of plotting a coup in 2003 but all the officers were released in 2012 when all the evidence against them was proved to be forged. This time 243 people have been killed to make it look more solid. This failed attempt gives total power to Erdogan which has been his ambition all along. Like all thugs Erdogan is drunk with his power and thinks he is invincible. The NATO is a big source of his strength because it is committed to protecting Turkey in case of an attack by another force. That is what Erdogan tried to engineer when Turkish planes shot down a Russian jet returning from a bombing mission in Syria. Erdogan wanted to stop Russians from bombing ISIS oil trucks because he was making vast sums of money from oil smuggling. In February the NATO warned Erdogan that it will not participate in a war with Russia. Like all dictators Erdogan, and wife, spend the nation's wealth on personal enrichment and luxuries. So, what happens now? No doubt Erdogan will consolidate his power and his ecstatic supporters will beat up anyone they do not like. He can convert schools to madrassas like Zia-ul-Haq did in Pakistan but at some point he will realise that once you let the Islamist genie out of the bottle you cannot put it back in. Will Obama have the spine throw Turkey out of NATO, which is the only action which will bring some sense to this thug? So far Obama has no evidence of a spine. We wait.

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