Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Why do they ask us to invest in froth?

Pundits are puzzled and indignant as to why Indians do not invest in the share market. Less than 1.5% of Indians invest in shares, compared to 10% in China and 18% in the US. Only 2% of our household savings are invested in stocks compared to 45% in the US. Learned articles are written on how markets always give good returns if you hang in there. However, even in the US there are those with contrary views. Our market fell by 8.5% in August last year, when China devalued the yuan by 3.2%, and by 7.7% in January when the yuan was devalued by 1.4%. The S&P 500 in the US also fell both times but has recovered whereas the Sensex is weak because foreign investors have sold $2.4 billion worth our stocks. Foreigners own 70% of our market at $257 billion so we are at their mercy. There is another danger lurking in the background. Emerging markets have borrowed heavily in foreign currencies because of very low interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan and $1.6 trillion will need to be paid back over the next 5 years. If there is any default it will immediately affect all emerging market stocks. Indian companies have external commercial borrowing of $181.9 billion, Rs 4.5 trillion, of which 37% are at risk. Which puts us at the mercy of the US Federal Reserve. If the interest rate in the US goes up and/or the dollar becomes stronger it will immediately increase the debt burden of our companies. Indians think that our market is manipulated by some big players but it seems that the US market is also manipulated because earnings per share have fallen but the market is almost at record level. The Fed raised rate by a timid 25 basis points in December which was criticised by some as being too soon. Like drug addicts markets have become so addicted to near zero borrowing costs that they celebrated when US employment figures came in lower than expected. Since money does not earn any interest from banks investment into risky assets was the only way to generate returns. This has naturally built up bubbles in markets everywhere. The Eurozone, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark have adopted negative interest rate where depositors are charged to keep their money in banks. This is to force people to spend money, in an effort to increase demand, and to devalue the respective currencies. In an assault on basic freedom governments are trying to engineer cashless economies which will prevent people holding their savings in cash and allow banks to make windfall profits from charging customers. Globalisation has made problems so interconnected that constant adjustments are required, which is beyond the scope of central banks. So great is the desperation that serious economists are actually discussing 'helicopter money' where people are just given money to spend. But what if they don't? Take them shopping at the point of a gun? Better to stay away from the stock market, what?

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