Sunday, October 18, 2015

Would it not be worse without bubbles?

We should be worried. If pundits are to be believed the world is witnessing the largest financial bubbles forming everywhere but central banks are unwilling, or unable, to control them. The source of the greatest concern today are known as 'unicorns', which are start-up companies valued at more than $1 billion. In Silicon Valley there are more than 100 such companies, some of which are making money, but most are running huge losses. Uber is valued at $50 billion but is running losses every quarter. Amazon was valued at $247 in July, having reported a loss of $57 million in April on sales of over $22 billion. India is no exception. Here too valuations of companies are rising to ridiculous levels, based in some cases on fictitious sales figures. Venture funds pour money into dodgy start-ups on the theory that if one is successful among dozens the returns will be enormous. One of the reasons for such valuations is that central banks, especially in rich countries, have pumped trillions of dollars into the global economy through bond buying programs, known as quantitative easing. Interest rates have been reduced to near zero levels which means that borrowing has never been cheaper than now. Stock markets are reaching record levels. When US non-farm payroll figures came in at 140,000, lower than expected, markets celebrated, because this may force the Federal Reserve to postpone any rise in interest rate to 2016. The Fed kept interest rate on hold in its meeting in September, citing a poor outlook for the global economy, especially China. Central banks are now talking about negative interest rates, where people have to pay to keep money in banks, and of helicopter money, wherein the government borrows money from the bank to hand out cash to the people. India is well ahead in this game, called targeted subsidy, in which the government transfers cash to accounts of people, deemed to be poor. No wonder retail inflation rose to 4.41% in September from 3.69% in July. Cheap cash leads to soaring asset prices which means that the richest 1% now own 50% of all the wealth in the world. Such is the gap in wealth that possessing $3,210 will put one in the top 50% of people in the world, where more than a billion people live on less that $1.25 a day. In India, the top 1% now own 53% of the nation's wealth and the top 10% own 76.3%. The top 1% owned just 36.8% of the nation's wealth in 2000. Shows what 10 years of socialism and crony capitalism by the Congress has accomplished. Professor Roubini has calculated risk profiles of 174 countries using 200 quantitative variables which can predict countries at risk of financial problems. Trouble is politicians will do anything to win elections. The US is again talking about government shutdown because Congress may refuse to raise the debt limit. Just as the Congress has vowed not to pass any bill in the Rajya Sabha. Central banks have to blow bubbles because politicians are a drag.

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