Monday, October 19, 2015

The numbers are sky high but isn't that a great distance to fall?

Lu Yucheng, China's Ambassador to India has written a glowing article about how China is modifying its economy from investment led growth to consumption and how it intends to benefit all its neighbors as it becomes more wealthy. He cites a bunch of figures to support his thesis. Market valuation of Xiaomi has soared to $45 billion in just 5 years. Market capitalisation of Smartisan, which wants to create new ideas for smart phones, has risen to $400 million within 3 years. Alibaba is a world renowned company , valued at $150 billion. Impressive. But in May Alibaba was sued in the US for selling counterfeit products on its site. Apparently Gucci bags, which sell for $795, were being offered for $2-5 on its site, provided the customer bought at least 2000 pieces. Alibaba is lobbying hard not to be blacklisted in the US. " China attaches importance to strengthening cooperation with neighbouring countries, and India is among our largest development partners," writes Mr Yu. And again," China is known as the 'world factory', and India the 'world office'. We can better align our development strategies and work together to make the Chinese phoenix and the Indian peacock fly higher." Of course, as ambassador, it is his job to dish out bromides and we wish we could believe him. Even as he was writing this article China commissioned a huge dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet to divert its waters to its territory. China is the main protector of the Pakistani government's policy of supporting terrorist groups which mount attacks against India. The Cultural Revolution under Mao Zedong killed around 45 million people. While other countries would revile such a monster Mao is still revered in China and his body is still preserved in a mausoleum in Beijing, an idol of a god for the Party, which does not believe in religion. One of the men who suffered in that revolution, Xi Jinping is today's president. One would expect that having suffered under a dictator Xi would move towards more democracy and transparency but he has become more powerful by using corruption trials to put opponents in prison and treating leaders of other countries with contempt. Xi is visiting Britain today where he will be treated as royalty as he stays at Buckingham Palace. Our Prime Minister is to visit Britain next month and he must be careful not to fall into any British trap as it struggles to stay relevant in the world. China's growth rate has slowed to 6.9% which would be considered fantastic in any other country but as it adjusts its economy away from investment unemployment may rise. Xi has made a lot of enemies and as the pressure builds there may be a coup and a civil war. That would benefit everyone.

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