Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Can stuttering India slay our vampires?

An article by a former member of the Planning Commission quotes predictions made by the World Economic Forum about India in 2005. Two scenarios were called Bollyworld. In one peacocks roamed in the middle while little birds scrambled around the periphery trying to find some grains. Our millionaires are getting richer because of rising asset prices while 2.3 million applied for 368 posts of peons in UP. The massive agitation for reservations by the Patels in Gujarat was an example of the little birds fighting for scraps. A second scenario which accompanies the first is that of tigers and wolves resorting to violence while smaller animals scamper to safety. An enormous increase in violent crimes fits into this scenario. This would lead to the third scenario, called 'Atakta Bharat' , which means 'stuttering India',  in which growth would rise to 9% and then fall to 6% unless there were institutional reforms. That is exactly what happened from 2005 to 2013. Pity the Congress ministers did not pay attention to the report even as they partied at Davos in Switzerland every year. On taxpayer money, of course. People are not stupid. They are not looking to become billionaires. What they want is opportunities to rise from their present level, for equality in education, for fair returns for hard work and just rewards for innovation and risk taking. Instead of reforms the Congress resorted to massive handouts which gave a false sense of reduction in the number of the poor but the economy lost 5 million precious jobs. Congress ruled states have the worst record of economic reforms. Redistribution has not worked in the past and is never going to. What is needed is inclusive growth in which wealth is created through increased productivity. If the $6.75 billion, earned by the CEOs of the top 500 S&P companies in the US, is distributed to their employees each one will get just $69. People get angry when they see some getting rich through financial wheeling-dealing, which is non-productive, while those at the bottom, who are actually creating wealth, remain where they are. That is why dealers of Wall Street firms are seen as vampires who finance politicians who will reduce regulations so that they can continue to speculate with public money. Goldman Sachs has been described as a " great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells of money." Public policy depends on what narrative is chosen by politicians to get elected. The narrative in India has been a toxic mixture of divide and rule, based on caste, social handouts to the poor, instead of creating wealth through reforms and infrastructure, and crony capitalism, based on a system of looting resources as shown by a multitude of scams. Mr Modi is trying to change that. But is there time?

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