Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Rich countries always control inflation.

Since 2009 we have been writing that inflation was the biggest danger to the economy and that the Reserve Bank was woefully slow to increase interest rates. In fact the blunder was committed in 2007 when inflation was just above 4%, oil was around $65 per barrel and the rupee was 39 to the dollar. That was when the RBI should have increased interest rates above the rate of inflation which would have brought inflation down to below 3% and encouraged savings by giving positive returns on bank deposits. That would have reduced the Current Account Deficit or CAD and increased genuine investment, as banks would be flush with funds to lend, while discouraging a debt boom which is causing Non Productive Assets of banks to rise to uncomfortable levels. The RBI should have bought dollars, building up reserves of over a $1 trillion, which would have protected the rupee today when the Federal Reserve is reducing its bond buying program. The lower value of the rupee would have made exports cheaper, earning more foreign currency, and imports more expensive, curtailing consumption, thus  reducing both inflation and CAD. Instead the RBI acted as an agent of the Congress using the strong rupee to control inflation by keeping imports, especially oil and gold, relatively cheaper. At last someone has had the courage to speak up. Maybe because he is a Managing Director ( Research ) at Morgan Stanley and could be living abroad. He has made the same point that the RBI was too slow in raising interest rates and has advised adoption of the Urjit Patel committee report which recommends controlling the Consumer Price Index which is around 10% rather than the Wholesale Price Index which is much lower at around 6%. The Congress would like interest rates to be brought down to make consumer loans cheaper, to encourage sales, and cheaper housing loans, to increase black money, and create a false feelgood factor before the coming elections. Inevitably a stooge writes that the Bank of England is concentrating on growth rather than on inflation. Absolute lie. The CPI in Britain is at 2%, food inflation at 1.5% and shop prices have actually fallen by 2.7% in January creating deflation fears. It maybe amazing for us that there are people still willing to lie for the Congress when it has betrayed the country so spectacularly. It is people like this that has made India weak.

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