Thursday, February 27, 2014

Is Ukraine the new Libya?

Using a UN Security Council resolution allowing the use of force to protect civilians Britain and France, with the help of NATO and Qatar, bombed Gaddafi's forces, killing 30,000 civilians. Today Libya is ruled by armed gangs who owe allegiance only to their tribes and refuse any attempt at control by the government. Last year over 7,000 were killed in Iraq in sectarian violence although even now the killers, George Bush and his poodle, Tony Blair, argue that they were kind to the Iraqi people by getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Syria has been different. While Russia and China vetoed any suggestion of force to help the rebels, Iran, through the Hezbollah, has been actively helping Assad to gain an upper hand in the civil war. So on to Ukraine. In November 2004 Viktor Yanukovych beat Viktor Yushchenko in presidential elections but was thought to have used unfair means. This precipitated street protests in Kiev, financed and instigated by US and European agencies, called the Orange Revolution. Elections were held again, Yushchenko won and appointed Yuila Tymoshenko as his Prime Minister. In 2009 Russia turned off gas supplies to Ukraine in January, at the height of winter, in a dispute over unpaid bills. Since a fifth of Europe's gas went through Ukraine this cause shortage of heating gas in Europe as well. Under pressure Tymoshenko signed a gas deal with Moscow for which she was tried and sentenced to 7 years in prison in 2011 after Yanukovych came to power in elections held in 2010. Ukraine's economy is in dire condition and will need $35 billion over the next 2 years. Bonds worth $6.5 billion will need to be redeemed this year. Last November, in a major blunder, Yanukovych broke off talks with the EU and opted for a Russian aid package worth $15 billion. With the winter Olympics scheduled to be held at Sochi in Russia at the end of January he should have feigned illness. Western powers took advantage of Russia's handicap and instigated another revolution. Yanukovych fled to Russia. The eastern part of the country, especially Crimea, is Russian speaking and voted heavily for Yanukovych. Now armed men have taken over government buildings in Simferopol in Crimea. If the EU offers money to Ukraine then Greece and Spain will be incensed. If they do not the Russians will happily step in. For now Putin can afford to wait. He can always turn off the gas to the western part. Why do they keep doing it? Will the west never learn?

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