Saturday, February 08, 2014

Are the pundits willfully blind?

With the advantage of hindsight people are suddenly waking up to the economic mess created by the present government, led by the Congress. The puzzle is where were these people when the Congress was wasting trillions of rupees on social schemes just to win elections. The government has raised Rs 2.3 trillion in 5 years from spectrum auctions and sale of shares in PSUs.  Last week it sold the cancelled 2G spectrum for Rs 500 billion. It has raised taxes, especially taxes on every kind of service, so severely that the sector has been shrinking. The Purchasing Managers' Index for services for January was 48.3 which is higher than the December figure of 46.7. Although anything below 50 denotes contraction this rise is seen as encouraging. Not worth boasting about in Davos is it? Now the Central Statistics Office has announced that the GDP will grow by 4.9% this fiscal. When our most revered Finance Minister and the World Famous Economist were predicting 5.5-6%. However, even this figure maybe suspect because the GDP growth for 2012-13 was revised downwards from 5% to 4.5%. The GDP in 2012-13 was Rs 54.8 trillion and not Rs 55.03 trillion as projected by the CSO in February 2013, thus providing a lower base to calculate this year's growth. How did the Congress manage to destroy the economy? The Congress has spent a total of Rs 2.3 trillion on the MNREGA scheme which pays the rural poor for 100 days of fictitious work every year. This has been whitewashed as a rural employment scheme but in reality is a blatant handout of cash. But surely the scheme has improved the quality of life for the poor and, by increasing their purchasing power, has increased consumer demand, thus helping manufacturing? Initially it did spur an increase in rural wages but by providing a base for wages it increased costs for farmers and resulted in double digit food inflation, harming the poor who spend a greater part of their earnings on food. Real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, has fallen from 11% in 2011 to 3% in 2013. Earnings of consumer goods companies show a marked slowdown in rural areas compared to previous years. Had this money been spent on infrastructure people would have had better access to markets, to education and healthcare. Question is when we have been writing since 2009 why did the pundits not see it? Or did they stay blind to support the Congress?

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