We are all bottom experts now.

The great sage of India, Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission is the latest expert to expound on the bottom. " I think the economy has bottomed out and will now move up, though one has to be cautious on the pace of recovery," he said in a recent interview. When asked about the IMF projection of growth at 4.3%, it has since been reduced to 3.75%, he said," The IMF forecast is based largely on recent performance. They are not factoring in the possibility that the positive features I have listed may have a significant effect in the next six months." What he actually means is that the IMF has been consistently wrong in the past and his wild guesses could actually come true because no one really has a clue. Surely, if any of them had a clue they would not be swanking about in the millionaire Swiss resort of Davos while we, with no knowledge in economics, could see the economy teetering on the edge. In its forecast the Planning Commission predicted an average growth rate of 8% between 2012 and 2017. The IMF was totally wrong about the Argentinian and Russian debt crises. They started to grow only after defaulting on their debt and stimulating their economies. The IMF said that austerity will make the Greek economy contract by 5.5% between 2009 and 2012. In fact, it contracted by 17% which has devastated the country. The IMF forecast that the British economy would be plunged into recession by the policy of austerity being pursued by the Tory government. It has just revised its growth forecast of the British economy from 0.9% to 1.4%. The present Governor of the Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan was the Chief Economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2007.  Thing is that it is very difficult to make macroeconomic forecasts because of so many variables. From the weather to earthquakes to internal politics to external economic shocks it is almost impossible to calculate the combined effect of all of them. However, while the others are unpredictable politicians should always behave in the national interest. " The food inflation is because of high inflation in cereals, and a short term spike in onion prices. The government is working on ways to offload substantial volumes of stocks of food-grains,..." said Mr Ahluwalia. In short the Congress has generated food inflation and will bring it down before next year's elections to gain credit. Is that the bottom he means.