Thursday, October 31, 2013

Why worry when we have full employment.

The RBI expects the economy to grow by 4.8% in this financial year which is down from its previous forecast of 5.7%. Some foreign experts reckon that growth will be below 4% but the government is still very optimistic, insisting that it will be 5.5%. They never explain what these growth figures mean. Have they taken account of inflation? This growth could be based on higher corporate earnings which have been caused solely by rising prices and not by higher sales. In which case the economy is shrinking and we are in a recession. On the other hand according to the National Sample Survey Organisation urban unemployment in India is lower than that in the US of A. In 2009-10 unemployment among women was 5.6% while it was just 3.4% in men. In other countries an unemployment rate of around 4% is considered full employment because there will always be some people in between jobs. While unemployment in Patna was 13% among men and 24% among women, unemployment among men had fallen to 1% in Bhopal and 1.4% in Howrah. These are very strange figures indeed because manufacturing industries lost 5 million jobs between 2004 and 2010.  Even stranger is the fact that companies are unable to find suitable candidates to recruit. The reason is that our education system churns out tens of millions of poorly educated graduates who are unemployable. The artificial scarcity of trained labor results in very high wages which means that our industries cannot compete globally and our exports amounted to a paltry $300 billion in the whole of 2012-13, an amount that China exports every month. Naturally our trade deficit was a massive $190 billion last year. However, since the Congress thinks that our economy is booming it is piling on tax after tax on the people. The Department of Telecom has decided that telecom companies have to pay a separate license fee of 8% of revenues for cell phone towers, never mind that they have paid billions of rupees for licensing spectrum. Since CEOs of theses companies cannot go around with a dish clamped to their heads saying, " Beep, beep " it is assumed that towers are part of the business, just as offices are. And tolls on " expressways " will increase. These would be considered normal roads in civilised countries. Predatory taxes will kill off growth. We can only hope that they kill off the Congress as well. Forever.

No comments: