Every figure in the negative.

For the first time in 2 years the HSBC Markit Services Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.9 in July from 51.7 in June. Livemint, 5 August. New business shrank for the first time in 2 years and business optimism declined to 47.8 in July from 51.9 in June. Any figure below 50 shows contraction and above 50 shows growth. With retail inflation at 10% and every service being heavily taxed it is not surprising that people are refusing to spend. HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July from 50.3 in June. The sub-index for new orders fell to 49.5 in July from 49.7 in June due to a sharp slowdown in growth of export orders. Normally a depreciation of currency results in increase of exports by making goods cheaper. That is why China keeps its currency, the Renminbi weak against other currencies so that its goods remain cheap and it can continue to grow at 7.5% by exporting to the world. Sadly our businesses are unable to take advantage of a weaker rupee because of the abysmal state of our infrastructure, very high taxes and the additional expense of corruption. If businesses are not doing well it follows that they will be unable to repay their loans to banks. Gross Non Performing Assets of 40 listed banks rose by 36% to Rs 1.8 trillion from Rs 1.3 trillion a year ago. NPAs of Punjab National Bank rose by 4.84% from 3.34%, Union Bank by 3.5% from 2.98% and Bank of Baroda by 2.99% from 1.84%. NPAs of Bank of India rose from Rs 7.86 billion to Rs 12.16 billion. Livemint 2 August. " Deteriorating asset quality and earnings are likely to constrain the credit profiles of Indian banks over the next two years," said S&P credit analyst, Geeta Chugh. " We no longer expect the corporate sector to mildly recover in fiscal 2014, given slower-than-expected GDP growth, heightened currency volatility, and high interest rates," she said. Livemint, 7 August. S&P expects NPAs to increase to 3.9% of total loans in fiscal 2014 and to 4.4% in fiscal 2015, from 3.4% in fiscal 2013. S&P, being an international credit rating agency, has to be cautious in its analysis. The reality is that the Congress will do anything to try and win impending general elections because without power you cannot loot and because it is terrified that if it loses all its crimes could become public. It will sacrifice the economy to try and win.That is why there is a real chance of a recession.