The Deutsche Bank predicts that the rupee will settle at 58 to the dollar after predicting that it will fall to 70 to the dollar only one week back. HT, 27 August. How can they say that when inflation is racing out of control, there is a humongous property price bubble, government expenditure is set to zoom because of irresponsible social spending, just to win elections and energy prices will rise, reducing consumer spending still further. However, it makes business sense for the bank to be irrational. If it can talk the rupee up it will get more euros when it repatriates its profits from India which will make its parent's balance sheet in Germany look healthier. Public sector banks want lower interest rates because they are sitting on vast piles of bad loans or Non Performing Assets. State Bank of India, the largest public sector bank has seen its bad assets rise to Rs 608.91 billion from Rs 471.56 billion a year ago. Profits fell 13.6% in the April-June quarter. After setting money aside NPAs are Rs 299.70 billion, the worst for 35 quarters. Livemint, 12 August.The bank cannot provide more money to cover its bad loans because then its profits will fall even more and it will not be able to pay any dividends. The government being the largest shareholder of the bank is hungry for money to waste and will not allow that. If interest rates fall then the bank can ask companies to restructure their loans at a lower rate and wipe them off its books. Companies want lower rates for much the same reasons although it seems stupid that they are not worried about the soaring inflation which is suppressing demand and reducing sales growth. Indian companies are not really interested in manufacturing. It is just too difficult. Land prices are too high, there is a severe dearth of skilled labor and there are too many restrictive laws requiring greasing of too many palms. If you want to buy a fridge, an air conditioner or a mobile phone you will not find even one retailer selling Indian products in your neighborhood. It will be LG or Samsung or Apple. Why bother when you can multiply your money by a factor of 10 in 3 years by buying up some land and building flats on them. That is where the black money is. What about politicians? Surely being elected representatives of the people they should tell the truth. Trouble is that their sole interest is in getting reelected because that gives them the chance to loot. It is everyone for himself or herself and no one for India. How sad is that?
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