Sunday, June 09, 2013

So who will be the losers?

After heavy fighting for about 2 weeks the town of Qusayr in Syria fell to Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon. This opens up supply routes to Damascus from the port cities of Tartous and Latakia. This is the first time that Hezbollah openly declared its presence in Syria and its intention of protecting fellow Shiite Alawis of Assad's regime. At the same time Russia announced its intention to station a dozen naval vessels in the Mediterranean on a permanent basis. This maybe to withdraw Russian citizens quickly in case the regime falls or it maybe to protect the 2 port cities in case Israel tries to mount a sneak naval attack on them. Israel has already bombed alleged weapons convoys from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon thrice, once on 31 January and twice on 3 and 5 May. The Syrian government has vowed to retaliate to further Israeli attacks. Israel is desperate to stop Hezbollah from acquiring advanced anti aircraft weapons systems which will add a sense of hesitation and seriously weaken its power to bomb any target in Lebanon at will. Israel would probably like the status quo to continue indefinitely where the regime, backed by Hezbollah, continues to fight the rebels, backed by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia thereby weakening both so much that they would not be a threat to Israel. A quick victory by the Sunni rebels, especially the Al Qaeda linked Al Nusra front, who will then gain control of Syria's arms, chemical weapons and heavy artillery will be extremely dangerous for Israel. A couple of days back the rebels seized the Quneitra crossing on the Golan Heights, very close to Israeli territory. The regime won it back after serious fighting involving tanks. Israel maybe the reason why Barack Obama refuses to get involved despite mounting evidence of the use of the nerve gas, Sarin. France has claimed that it has evidence of the regime forces using Sarin and Britain has supported it. However, there are reports that 2 rebel fighters were arrested in Turkey with a 2 kg canister of Sarin gas and Carla Del Ponte, member of the UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria, said last month," Our investigators have been in neighboring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong concrete suspicions, but not incontrovertible proof of the use of Sarin gas, from the way victims were treated. This was use on the part of the rebels, not by the government authorities." David Cameron of Britain and Francois Hollande of France are itching to bomb Syria to improve their sagging poll ratings. They may be the first to end up as losers. Delicious irony. 

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