Saturday, June 22, 2013

Country should come before self.

Our most revered Finance Minister is an unhappy man. TOI, 22 June. " We are not happy, we are unhappy ( over ) what's happening. But that's an impact that every currency in the world ( is facing ) because of certain announcements made by the US Federal Reserve," he said. We appreciate the royal " we ". If we are not mistaken the original observation was " We are not amused " but " happy " will do. It is true that the dollar has appreciated against every currency but whereas countries like China, Korea and Taiwan are pleased because it will increase their exports we in India are facing a grim future of rising inflation, rising Current Account Deficit and a plummeting rupee because we have nothing to export. Instead of spending on infrastructure the Congress has misused taxpayer money as bribes to win elections and instead of controlling inflation has been forcing the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates hoping that loose monetary policy will somehow create a mirage of growth till the elections next year. The looming disaster has nothing to do with the Fed because it was expected that the Fed will not go on buying bonds and toxic mortgages forever. This is entirely an act of home grown economic terrorism against the people. " We are watching the situation; RBI will take whatever action it has to take. We will do whatever has to be done...My request is you should not react in panic, it is happening around the world," he assured us. That is a most dangerous statement. The reason why history is said to repeat itself is because no one learns from history. In 1992 the British pound, which was linked to the German Deutsch Mark, came under attack from speculators because inflation in Britain was 3 times that in Germany. Britain tried every trick to support the pound. It borrowed 10 billion pounds from the European Union, frantically bought pounds and raised interest rates to 12 and then to 15% but nothing worked. On 16 September, 1992, still remembered as black Wednesday, the British government was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and devalue it. Britain lost 3.3 billion pounds and George Soros gained 1 billion pounds from short selling the pound in currency markets. We only have a paltry $280 billion, just sufficient for 6 months exports, so the RBI must not try to defend the rupee by selling dollars. Daily currency trades total in trillions of dollars so the RBI has no hope of defending the rupee. Increase interest rates, control inflation, spend on infrastructure instead of bribing the electorate and lower taxes. For once in your life think of the country instead of yourself. Please.

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