Monday, June 17, 2013

India is sitting on a time bomb.

A UN report says that India will become the most populous country by 2028. What is really shameful is that population growth is the second highest in India after Nigeria. China's population is projected to decline from 2.4 billion today to 1.1 billion in 2100. Due to its one-child policy, started in 1978, China has prevented 400 million births between 1979 and 2011. Fertility rate per woman in China was 5 births per woman in the 1970s, over 3 births per woman in the 1980, around 1.8 births per woman in 2008 and 1.54 in 2011. According a report by the Pew Research Center 76% of Chinese now support the one-child policy in contradiction to western propaganda. Low birth rate allowed millions of women to join the work force, keeping labor costs low, making China the manufacturing center of the world and producing over 10% growth per annum for decades. Fewer children meant better health for women, increased individual savings, less epidemics, less slums, less pressure on the environment, less waste and less abuse of fertile land leading to less stress on the ecosystem. Of course, there are serious problems. Increasing wealth and the Chinese tendency to eat anything that moves has resulted in serious international medical crises, such as SAARS and bird flu, when a virus normally found in animals mutates to infect human beings causing high fatality because we do not have immunity to such viruses. While the falling growth rate caused less pressure on land large factories and unsafe mining practices have caused massive pollution of air, water and land. However, in India we refuse to learn from the Chinese experience. We do not see that population is declining in all rich countries, perhaps expanding slowly in the US because of very high migration of foreigners, and increasing in every poor country. Just a couple of days ago Muhammad Morsi, President of Egypt threatened military attack on Ethiopia if it goes ahead with its plan to build a huge dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt is dependent on the Nile for 90% of its fresh water needs and has to import much of its food. With an exploding population and falling foreign currency reserves it faces the prospect of food shortage. President of Philippines, Benigno Aquino has proposed family planning to reduce population growth, annoying the Catholic church. Yet here politicians are competing with each other to start social schemes to give monetary handouts, free TVs or grain at dirt cheap prices to the poor to get votes. This locks the poor in a state of permanent dependency and causes inflation, ruining the economy. This is unsustainable and when the crisis comes the poor will die in droves from starvation. The present politicians will be directly responsible for a future genocide.

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