Sabre rattling or Russian roulette?

Syria is sliding inexorably towards a civil war. Left to themselves it would probably have settled by now. Either the regime would have won as the Iranian regime did after the stolen elections of 2009 or Assad would have fled as happened in Tunisia when Zine El Abidine Ben Ali scarpered to Saudi Arabia on 14 January 2011 or Assad would have been killed as happened to Nicolae Ceausescu on 25 December 1989 in Romania after a short revolution. However outsiders have been interfering from the very beginning. On one side are the 74% of Syrian people, the Sunnis supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey with the CIA offering tactical advice. On the other side is the ruling party comprising of 12% of the population, the Alawites, who are Shia, supported by Russia and Iran. Terrible atrocities are being committed by both sides as is to be expected from the ancient hatred between Sunni and Shia and between Arabs and Persians. Both sides have a lot to lose but Iran has the most to lose of all. Apart from the Hezbollah in Lebanon, listed as a terrorist organisation by the west, Syria is the only nation friendly to Iran which is under terrible pressure due to sanctions imposed by the US over its nuclear program. Its economy is in terrible shape and the government is finding it impossible to sell its main export, oil as EU sanctions have kicked in since 1 July. Iran has apparently lost $10 billion in revenue this year already. It has reduced oil production by 1 million barrels/day but is still having to pump out 2.8 million barrels/day to protect its wells from damage. It is able to sell only 1.6-1.8 million barrels/day and then at throw away prices. NY Times, 5 July. Tankers are being painted over and given different names to prevent them being recognised as Iranian. About two thirds of Iran's tankers are being used for storage of 40 million barrels of crude while 10 million barrels are stored on land. Crude oil is highly toxic and cannot be dumped without producing enormous environmental damage. Iran has today said that it is thinking of complaining to the International Court of Human Rights, a sign of how desperate and vulnerable it feels. However, Persians are an ancient and proud people so it is hard to predict how Iran will react if pushed against the wall. Attacking any other country's vessel will invite a swift response from the US and Israel which is looking for any excuse to bomb the nuclear sites. But Iran could pour oil into the Gulf and set it on fire claiming it to be an accident. That would produce the mother of all disasters and stop all shipping from the Gulf immediately sending oil prices into the stratosphere. Have the Saudis and Americans considered every eventuality? Very doubtful.