Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Should we learn from China?

World attention is focused on the National People's Congress in China. China has been growing at 10%+ for decades and is now the second largest economy in the world. In the early 90s China enforced a one child policy on its people which curtailed the rate of growth of the population and suddenly freed millions of women who could join the workforce. The abundance of labor depressed wages and China quickly became the manufacturing hub of the world. Cheap goods from China depressed prices in western countries keeping inflation in check and allowing central banks to keep interest rates at very low levels leading to an explosion of debt which led to asset price bubbles and then to the subprime crisis and economic collapse in Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Cheap money from abroad resulted in a building boom in India increasing property prices by 800% resulting in an explosion of black money and inflation over 10%. China was starting from a very low base, commodity prices were low and low wages kept inflation in check. However, commodity prices have trebled increasing costs leading to rising prices and increasing expectations of the people have led to a demand for higher wages. China has announced a budget of $1 trillion with inflation at 4%, deficit at 1.5% and growth expected at 7.5%. Defence expenditure is set to rise by 11.2% to $106.4 billion which is causing anxiety in neighboring countries. A nation of uncivilised barbarians China's behavior is rough, aggressive and impolite which leads other countries to fear and loath it. Unfortunately, the size of its economy means that everyone needs it for business. Domestic security budget has been increase by 11.5% to $111 billion showing that its own people, and not just outsiders, are opposed to the government. To keep its people happy Chinese leaders will try their utmost to maintain a high economic growth which will lead to reduction of poverty and rising quality of life. In India politicians are happy with an exploding population of illiterate poor who can be bribed at elections times and misled with lies. Perhaps the most important lesson from China is the way leaders are changed regularly. Recent Presidents have been Mao Zedong 1954-1959, Liu Shaoqi 1959-1968, Yang Shangkun 1988-1993, Jiang Zemin 1993-2003 and Hu Jintao 2003 to date. Deng Xiao Ping, the architect of the present growth model, never held any post. Their children are unknown. In India the same ugly old faces deface our TV screens for decades, refusing to die or handover gracefully. Political parties are gangs, ruled by families, passing power and looted wealth from one generation to the next. They will not allow anyone new; someone with new ideas, someone who puts his loyalty to the country above personal gain, someone who has sharam and izzat. There is no escape for us.

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