Is Annan the man?

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, in his new avatar as UN-Arab League Envoy, has returned from Damascus with a " disappointing response so far ". Syrian President, Basher al Assad does not have a choice. In fact, he never had any. If he had agreed to a democratic process of elections his minority Alawite party would have lost all the power they have enjoyed for decades with all the status and wealth that can bring. No one wants to give up a position of privilege. That is why the shadowy Koch brothers are pouring hundreds of millions to defeat Obama in November's election. The army in Egypt sacrificed Mubarak so that it can cling on to its privileges as the Pakistani army continues to do. If Assad had tried to negotiate he would have been killed by his own people. So he used force hoping to frighten demonstrators into submission. However, once the first person was killed it enraged protesters into more protests and so a cycle of force, deaths and more protests ensued. Now it is too late. Assad cannot relinquish power under any circumstance. He would not want an end like that of Gaddafi. If the opposition gain power they will surely hang him like Saddam was. Tunisia has offered asylum but he knows once out of Syria he will never be safe. Charles Taylor was given safe refuge in Nigeria but was handed over to the International Criminal Court where he now sits in a cell. Fujimori tried to avoid prison by hiding in Japan but had to return to Peru and is now in prison. Assad is not without friends. Russia and China's veto of the UN Security Council resolution was helpful but his main support is local. He has the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Most of Iraq's leaders are Shia who were protected by Iran during Saddam's time. And there is Iran which is already said to be involved in the killings of protesters. Initially Turkey was very loud in its condemnation of the Assad regime but has now toned down its rhetoric. Turkey has recognised that if it supplies arms to Syrian rebels Assad can easily supply arms to Kurds. The Arab League, led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are desperate to see a regime change in Syria not because Syria is any threat to the Arabs but because it is the only friend that Iran has. The Sunni Arabs will not tolerate a Shia Persian Iran with nuclear weapons. They are hoping that if the Assad regime falls Iran will feel weak, friendless and surrounded and may be forced to negotiate an end to its nuclear program. Meanwhile Iran is desperately speeding up its enrichment activities, while playing the usual delaying games with the IAEA, because it feels any nuclear bomb will make it safe from attack. It is a game of nerves which could suddenly explode if any one party snaps. We can only hope that we are a safe distance away to enjoy the fireworks without getting singed.