Friday, October 08, 2010

The World Bank President, Robert Zoellick thinks that near zero interest rates in developed countries is creating huge liquidity and money is flowing into developing economies creating asset price bubbles and increasing the value of their currencies. He thinks that these countries should take steps to curtail inflow of foreign money. The problem is that rich countries have no clue as to what they should do having never faced such a situation before. For over a century rich countries have been growing by exploiting poor ones. The GATT round of trade talks allowed rich countries to subsidise their farmers and industries while forcing poor countries to open their markets causing devastation especially in Africa. They bought raw materials dirt cheap and sold finished products at exorbitant prices. This enabled European countries to spend lavishly on free healthcare, early retirement, enormous pensions, long maternity leaves and other benefits. No longer. With Asia, especially China, growing at a fast pace commodity prices have jumped denying rich countries cheap raw materials. Having learnt from the GATT rip off developing countries are refusing to be bludgeoned into signing the WTO accord. Cheap imports have decimated manufacturing industries in rich countries. To favor its exports China keeps its currency, the Yuan artificially low by buying US and EU securities. It has $ 2.5 trillion worth of foreign exchange. What happens when its reserves are more than the US GDP? Seems to me that the only way is to devalue the dollar and the Euro against the Yuan. This is what the IMF used to prescribe for poor countries. So will they swallow the bitter pill or will pride stop them until it is too late?

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