Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Seems that multinational Indian companies are going to need government bailout to the tune of some $ 10 billion. Hindalco needs Rs. 154 billion, Reliance needs Rs. 67 billion, Tata Steel Rs. 55 billion and Bharti Telecom Rs. 20 billion and so on. Nice mixture of metal, manufacturing and service companies. Commercial vehicle sales are down. In september Tata's sales are down 22%, Ashok Leyland down 26% while Eicher is down 38%. In october Eicher sales are down 55%. Auto sector sales are down 14% and auto companies are delaying payments to their parts suppliers by upto 100 days. Event the festival season of Diwali failed to perk up sales of cars and two wheelers. This will have a knock effect on suppliers of parts down to steel and plastics industries. Assocham reckons that 25% of jobs may be lost but had to withdraw that claim after severe mauling from politicians and civil servants. Inflation continues at around 12% and the rupee is flirting around 50 to the dollar and may sink if the RBI reduces interest rates further. The only silver lining is that oil has fallen to $ 56 per barrel because of fears of global recession which is not good. In desperation to win the coming general elections the criminal politicians may try for some very risky short term measure which may damage the economy still further. We can only pray that they fail.

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