Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Going backwards.

 "Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal...said India has achieved a record in exports of goods and services, with total shipments crossing USD 860 billion in 2025-26. Total services and merchandise exports were worth USD 825 billion in 2024-25." ET. "India's trade deficit widened to $119.3 billion in FY 2025-26 from $94.6 billion in the previous financial year, marking the second highest gap in the past 11 years, according to official data." Imports grew 6.4% year-on-year to $979.4 billion, driven by the high gold and silver prices, while exports grew 4.22%. Merchandise exports rose 1% to $441.78 billion. CNBCTV18. "India's nominal GDP ranking has dropped to sixth place in 2025, according to IMF data, mainly due to the rupee's fall against the dollar and updated base year calculations." However, India's economy is still growing strongly, as the real GDP growth has been revised upwards to 8.2% in the second quarter of FY 2025-26. Whalesbook. Foreign investors are selling out of Indian equities. "According to veteran investor Akash Prakash, FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been persistent sellers in Indian equities since October 2024, with outflows exceeding $45 billion over an 18-month period." "In aggregate terms, the selling accounts for nearly 1% of India's total market capitalisation, indicating pressure that surpasses levels seen during the global financial crisis." And yet, "Indian equities continue to trade at a steep premium of 50% compared to emerging market peers." CNBCTV18. It is because of systematic investment plans (SIP) (MFSH) said fund investor Shankar Sharma. "They are exiting because SIP money is entering. Selling equals buying." "Even in utopia, you can't have SIP and FPIs both buying together. Somebody's got to sell for them to buy," he said. "India's foreign exchange restrictions have made it costlier and more complex for overseas investors to hedge against rupee swings, denting the appeal of Indian bonds, while a war-driven hit to earnings prospects is adding fresh pressure on equities." "Steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to steady the rupee - including curbs aimed at limiting arbitrage trade" mean that "One-year hedging costs in the onshore markets have risen by about 30 basis points since the measures were introduced. The increase has been steeper offshore, with NDF (non-deliverable forwards) (Investopedia) hedging costs climbing nearly 70 basis points." Reuters. First the RBI forced banks to sell dollars in excess of $100 million, forcing banks to incur losses (TOI) and then it restricted rupee hedging in the onshore and offshore NDF markets (msn.com). As a result, "Banks are staring at potential losses running into hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Hedging costs have jumped, making it harder for investors to buy protection." "Two senior foreign bankers said clients had questioned the RBI's seemingly arbitrary move." "Some foreign investors said they may stay away from India even after the current uncertainties ease, the bankers added." ET. The RBI had been trying to encourage foreign trade in the Indian rupee which would preserve foreign exchange and protect against sanctions by western countries. rbi.org.in. Now no one will be willing to touch the rupee with a hundred-foot barge pole (wytv.com) after this. Seems that the RBI is contradicting its own actions. A collective Brain Fog (Cleveland Clinic). Indians blame foreigners. Brainwashed. 

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