India's gross domestic product (GDP) has been estimated with a new base year 2022-23, from 2011-12, to reflect the changing nature of the economy. Years 2019-21 were distorted by the Covid epidemic. The growth rate of the real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, is estimated at 7.6%, while the growth rate of the nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is projected at 8.6% for the financial year 2025-26. pib.gov.in. "The new series will compute demand directly using the consumption expenditure survey," and "will use data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS)," to track the vast informal sector. TOI. The changes in the base year and the methodology have reduced India's nominal output by Rs 11 trillion ($133 billion), which means that "India's nominal GDP in 2025-26 at Rs 345.47 trillion ($3.93 trillion), 3.26% smaller than the Rs 357.14 trillion given in January based on the 2011-12 series." Mint. In 2024, Japan's nominal GDP was at $4.028 trillion. World Bank. The revised estimate (RE) for the fiscal deficit from April 2025-January 2026 (FY26) was Rs 9.81 trillion, or 63% of the annual target, compared to 74.5% in the same period last year. Revenue receipts stood at Rs 27.09 trillion, or 79.5% of total receipts, with net tax revenue at Rs 20.94 trillion (79.3% of RE) and non-tax revenue of Rs 5.57 trillion (78.3%). Mint. The manufacturing sector grew at 13.3% while services grew 9.5% in the third quarter of FY26 (September-December 2025), investment increased 7.8% and the current account deficit (CAD) will remain at a comfortable 1% of GDP. "Both central and aggregate state capex have grown by around 15% in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with last year," Loss of jobs in the IT sector due to AI adoption is a concern, wrote Rajani Sinha. Good news all round. Further good news is that oil prices have barely budged after, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office on Saturday morning during US-Israeli air strikes, state media confirms." BBC. Brent crude is up 2.03% at $72.87 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up just 1.81% at $67.02 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. If the conflict concludes swiftly with a regime change in Iran, the US could withdraw sanctions on the country, leading to a jump in oil supply and a fall in crude prices, which would be good for India. "Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran...raised the growth forecast for the next financial year to 7-7.4% as against 6.8-7.2% projected in last month's Economic Survey," and "He said that the Indian economy was likely to cross $4 trillion next year." TOI. A deluge of good news. Not too good to be true. Is it?
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