Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Uneasy mother.

 On 27 January, "India and the European Union have concluded what EU chief described as the 'mother of all deals', amid smiles, even open-mouth guffaw, handshakes and a giant photo op. A comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was finalized "that is expected to significantly boost India's manufacturing and services sectors, deepen market access and strengthen investor confidence." TOI. "Both countries, however, kept sensitive agricultural products out of the FTA." "On a weighted average basis, the tariffs levied by India on products imported from the EU stands at about 9.6%, while the same on Indian goods in EU is around 3.6%. Once the FTA takes effect, India will bring nearly 96% of EU goods to zero tariff, while the EU will end duties on about 98% of Indian goods." Mint. Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or GDP at current prices, of the EU was $19.5 trillion in 2024, while India's nominal GDP was less than one-fourth that of the EU's, at $3.9 trillion in 2024. World Bank. so. who gains more? "The EU plans to levy a surcharge on imports of highly polluting industries like steel, aluminium, cement and fertilizers under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)." "While steel exports are modest compared to domestic production," "The trading bloc accounts for 40% of India's steel exports of 8.6 million tonnes in 2025." Mint. As for fertilisers, "India imported 85% more urea, 46% more DAP and 122% more NPK fertilisers in the first nine months of this fiscal year compared with a year earlier, according to provisional data released by the Fertiliser Association of India." ET. The EU needn't worry. If Indian wine connoisseurs are licking their lips at the prospect of duties falling from 150% to 75% and then to 20% on premium wines, "complex state taxes, registration fees and distribution hurdles continue to constrain foreign labels. As a result, any duty relief is expected to benefit only a narrow band of premium imports." Mint. Any gain from the fall in tariffs could be neutralized by a fall in the exchange value of the rupee. The rupee is trading at 91,909 to one US dollar this morning, having closed at 92.043 yesterday. Investing.com. The rupee could go to 95 or even 100 against the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro has strengthened to just over $1.20, "its highest level since 2021." Reuters. The EU is comprised of 27 nations (wikipedia) who have to ratify the deal through their legislatures. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to all 27 nations by tweeting in all 24 official languages of the EU. Some EU prime ministers responded in Hindi. India Today. But, India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had some sharp words for the Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radoslaw Sikorski's recent visit to Pakistan. "Poland should display zero tolerance for terrorism and not help fuel the terrorist infrastructure in our neighborhood" Mr Sikorski had expressed satisfaction with India's reduction in Russian oil imports "because this is financing the war machine of Putin." Dawn. Another EU nation Croatia also came in for some tongue-lashing. "Members of terrorist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) trespassed and vandalized Indian embassy in Zagreb and tried to replace the Tricolour with a 'Khalistani flag', drawing strong condemnation from Indian govt." TOI. The UK is yet to ratify the FTA with India, signed in July 2025. House of Commons Library. It may be the mother of all deals. But motherhood is never easy. We wait for the baby. 

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