Growth is not growing.

"India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $2.119 billion to $723.608 billion for the week ending 20 February, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. Having touched a record high of $723.608 billion the previous week. ET. Driven largely by valuation gains, reserves rose by $19.4 billion in nominal terms during the nine months period from April-December 2025. ET. Despite adequate reserves, the rupee fell to an all time low of 92.17 against the dollar yesterday, "as an intensifying war in the Middle East drove oil prices sharply higher, heightened the risk of portfolio outflows and raised concerns about remittance flows from diaspora in the region. ET. In the last two sessions in March 2026 (markets closed on Sunday, 1 March and Tuesday, 3 March for Holi) "foreign funds have net withdrawn funds worth a little over Rs 120 billion translating to about $1.3 billion," while "domestic funds were net buyers of stocks worth Rs 120.68 billion". TOI. "Several Indian companies have restricted the domestic supply of natural gas, including to the important fertiliser sector, under a force majeure clause due to an escalating conflict in the Middle East." "India imported 27 million tonnes of LNG in 2024/25, about half of its overall gas consumption, according to government data." Reuters. "India's vulnerability is the exchange rate," with the rupee weaker by 9% in the last two years against the dollar. "While weak domestic demand and soft commodity prices have kept inflation in check," "Were the rupee to edge closer to the psychological cliff of 100 to the dollar while oil races to $100 a barrel, the RBI may have to raise interest rates," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Meanwhile, to curb people's love of gold the government has sold sovereign gold bonds (SGB). "SGBs are government securities denominated in grams of gold. They are substitutes for holding physical gold. Investors have to pay the issue price in cash and the bonds will be redeemed on maturity." rbi.org.in. Unfortunately, the price of gold in Indian rupees has risen from Rs 28006.50 per 10 grams in 2014 to Rs 1,57,40 till today. Bank Bazaar. But, "the mandarins in the finance ministry never bothered to hedge their naked short position - which has gone parabolic. The treasury remains on the hook for roughly 124 tons - a Rs 2 trillion ($22 billion) liability - with the last bonds retiring in 2032." ET. In addition, "New GDP estimates released on 27 February based on an updated methodology and base year have reduced the country's nominal ouput by over Rs 11 trillion ($133 billion)." This could cause the fiscal deficit to rise to 4.51% from 4.36% of GDP unless the government saves an extra Rs 510 billion, wrote Pragya Srivastave & Payal Bhattacharya. That is because "Nominal GDP is the base on which tax revenues, spending plans and borrowing needs are calculated.If nominal GDP grows slower than expected, government revenues fall short." vajiramandravi. com. With the benchmark 10-year bond yield already at 6.661% (in.investing.com), higher borrowing will further push up borrowing costs and interest payments, while reduced expenditure could further constrict nominal GDP. In January 2026, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman boasted, "Our macroeconomic fundamentals are stronger than ever, We have successfully navigated global headwinds to place India on a high-growth trajectory." ET.  Corrected figures are out and headwinds are a storm. Only GDP is not enough. Need to increase wealth. For the people. Not hot air for the party. Will be exposed..        

Win the peace.

In retaliation to Israel/US attacks, "Iran's response has been a barrage of missiles and drones, targeting military bases and installations across several Gulf countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates." India Today. Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February (wikipedia), the regime is trying to survive, whatever the cost. They have calculated that if they can increase the economic and casualty cost to the US, the Trump-hating biased media and opposition  (Chicago Tribune) will cheer every injury to the US and may even offer advice on how to increase the pain. To win this war just bombing the infrastructure is not enough - any remnant of the old regime must not be allowed to survive. After the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunni officers of the disbanded Iraqi army joined ISIS as fighters and commanders, contributing much to their success. Time. After World War II, "a series of trials held in Nuremberg, Germany, in 1945-46, in which former Nazi leaders were indicted and tried as war criminals by the International Military Tribunals." Four defendants were sentenced to 10-20 years in prison, three were sentenced to life imprisonment and 12 defendants were sentenced to death, of which 10 were hanged. Hermann Goring committed suicide by swallowing a cyanide capsule. Britannica. This was followed by a group of Nazi hunters who sought former Nazi officials hiding in exile and brought them to justice. wikipedia. "Simon Wiesenthal was an Austrian Holocaust survivor who dedicated his life to ensuring that the crimes of the Nazi regime were not forgotten and that those responsible were brought to justice. wiesenthal.org. But winning the war and punishing Nazi criminals was not enough. The US won the peace when "On June 5, 1947, in an address at Harvard University, Secretary of State George C Marshall advanced the idea of a European self-help program to be financed by the United States." A law was passed on 3 April 1948 and over the next four years the US distributed $13 billion to 17 States of Western Europe including former enemies, Italy and West Germany. Britannica. Today, both Italy and Germany are members of NATO (nato. int) and Holocaust denial is a criminal offense in Germany (DW). Iranian people should be helped to bring former regime members to trial. President Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania was tried by a special military tribunal on charges of mass murder and immediately shot to death by a firing squad. Britannica. Today, Romania is a member of both the European Union and NATO. BBC. Peace will only come to Iran if people see the benefits of war. Sanctions must be lifted quickly, food and medicine supplies ensured and the economy stabilized. Iran could then become an example for other terrorist states like Pakistan. And, just maybe, Trump-haters will praise him. Or, maybe not.           

Bear attack.

""Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Sanjay Malhotra said corporates, banks, central and state governments and the private sector are in robust shape, evidence that the economy is 'healthy and robust'." So the "Goldilocks phase can be sustained." ET. "Describing 2025 as a 'defining year for Indian growth,' the government also defined it as the country's 'Goldilocks moment,' with high growth and low inflation." As "India has benefited from surging service revenues (from India's booming IT services firms) and exports of made-in-India Apple iPhone (estimated at $23 billion in the first half of 2025 alone). Both sectors are exempt from Trump tariffs." Forbes. Then, three days ago, "President Donald Trump...said that US had begun a major combat operation against Iran, after Israel said it has launched 'preventive strikes' against Tehran." NDTV. Crude oil and natural gas prices jumped, with Brent crude briefly hitting $82 per barrel." BBC. "The rupee fell to its weakest in a month," As "The RBI likely stepped into the market, traders said, while dollar sales by foreign banks also helped curb losses in the rupee, which fell 0.5% to close at 91.47 per dollar in its steepest drop in more than a month." Reuters. It is trading at 91.80 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. The rise in the price of oil may take some time to reflect in our cost of purchase, as "The price of the Indian crude oil basket, which represents the cost of oil imported into the country, has averaged $59.92 per barrel in January, down from $62.2 in December, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell." Mint. So, "International oil prices rose about 9% following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran," but "retail prices are not expected to be raised immediately, as the government continues to follow a calibrated policy of allowing companies to build margins when international prices are low and cushioning consumers when rates rise." ET. As the price of crude oil fell the government increased taxes on petrol and diesel so that the retail price of petrol stayed steady at around Rs 95 per liter in Delhi (goodreturns.in). In 2024, the Congress alleged that the Centre had collected over Rs 36 trillion from taxes on petroleum products in 5 years. ET. That figure may have crossed Rs 50 trillion by now, an enormous revenue for the government. If the government increases the cost of fuel it will immediately feed into the cost of transport and raise prices of all goods in India. A weak rupee will immediately raise the cost of imports and further add to inflation. "For India, each $1 increase in crude adds roughly $2 billion to the annual import bill, putting pressure on the trade balance, JM Financial noted." "Fertiliser prices could rise sharply if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, potentially increasing India's subsidy burden." ET. Already, "India's current account deficit (CAD) rose to USD $13.2 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, in the December quarter from USD 11.3 billion in the years ago period,..according to RBI data." PTI. Trouble with Goldilocks is that the bears come. And she runs away.       

El Mencho, the novice.

One week ago, "Mexico's most wanted man and the leader of the feared Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) drug cartel has been killed during a security operation to arrest him, the defence ministry has said." "Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as 'El Mencho', died...as he was being taken to the capital Mexico City, after being seriously injured in clashes between his supporters and the army." BBC. One week later, another brutal, mass-murdering lowlife thug, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed, Iran's state media confirmed, after the United States and Israel launched the most ambitious attack on Iranian targets in decades." NDTV. Mencho was born on 17 July 1966, which would make him 59 years old the day he died on 22 February 2026 (wikipedia), while Khamenei was born on 19 April 39, which would make him 87 years old the day he died on 28 February 2026 (wikipedia). Mencho was despised as a criminal drug lord and carried a bounty of $10 million US dollars on his head, while Khamenei cloaked himself in the safety of religion as an Ayatollah, which is a title for a high-ranking Twelver Shia clergy" (wikipedia). As a religious leader one would have expected Khamenei to prostrate himself to "Allahu Akbar" or "Allah - He is -The Greatest," (yasmeeninstitute. blog), but since 3 December 1979, for a total of almost 57 years, Khamenei was announced the Supreme Leader of Iran  (wikipedia), whose every word was unchallenged. Akin to God. While Mencho was hunted by the Mexican army and US drug enforcement, Khamenei was securely protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) , which "Originating as an ideological militia, the IRGC has taken on a growing role in nearly every aspect of Iranian politics, economics (including energy and food industries) and society." wikipedia. Its supporters refer to it as "Sepah-e-Pasdaran (Army of the Guardians), Pasdaran-e-Enghelab (Guardians of the Revolution), or simply Pasdaran (Guardians). To enforce its total control of the Iranian society, "Basij branch of the IRGC in Iran enlists civilian volunteers who are motivated by zealotry and devotion to the Islamic Republic." "The Basij consists primarily of young working-class men (or boys under 18) who have yet to begin a career, marry or have children." Britannica. These goons shot 26-year old Neda- Agha Soltani in cold blood on 20 June 2009 wikipedia) following blatant hijack of the 2009 general elections by conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad  (wikipedia) leading to widespread protests. Khamenei supported this shameless theft. The widely presumed winner Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife are still under house arrest. Britannica. In recent protests, "As many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on January 8 and 9 (2026) alone, two senior officials of the country's Ministry of Health told TIME - indicating a dramatic surge in death toll." time.com. Terrified of losing their privileged positions and of facing justice, the religious coterie, the IRGC and the Basij thugs are trying to consolidate. BBC. El Mencho's followers have reacted ferociously to his killing (BBC) while the maddened savage followers of Khamenei are firing missiles indiscriminately at Arab nations who had no part in his killing (Reuters). Mencho was a novice in villainy compared to this pervert. Chopping the head is not enough. Uproot the entire rot. Free the people.             

Aew series of good news.

 India's gross domestic product (GDP) has been estimated with a new base year 2022-23, from 2011-12, to reflect the changing nature of the economy. Years 2019-21 were distorted by the Covid epidemic. The growth rate of the real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, is estimated at 7.6%, while the growth rate of the nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is projected at 8.6% for the financial year 2025-26. pib.gov.in. "The new series will compute demand directly using the consumption expenditure survey," and "will use data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS)," to track the vast informal sector. TOI. The changes in the base year and the methodology have reduced India's nominal output by Rs 11 trillion ($133 billion), which means that "India's nominal GDP in 2025-26 at Rs 345.47 trillion ($3.93 trillion), 3.26% smaller than the Rs 357.14 trillion given in January based on the 2011-12 series." Mint. In 2024, Japan's nominal GDP was at $4.028 trillion. World Bank. The revised estimate (RE) for the fiscal deficit from April 2025-January 2026 (FY26) was Rs 9.81 trillion, or 63% of the annual target, compared to 74.5% in the same period last year. Revenue receipts stood at Rs 27.09 trillion, or 79.5% of total receipts, with net tax revenue at Rs 20.94 trillion (79.3% of RE) and non-tax revenue of Rs 5.57 trillion (78.3%). Mint. The manufacturing sector grew at 13.3% while services grew 9.5% in the third quarter of FY26 (September-December 2025), investment increased 7.8% and the current account deficit (CAD) will remain at a comfortable 1% of GDP. "Both central and aggregate state capex have grown by around 15% in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with last year," Loss of jobs in the IT sector due to AI adoption is a concern, wrote Rajani Sinha. Good news all round. Further good news is that oil prices have barely budged after, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office on Saturday morning during US-Israeli air strikes, state media confirms." BBC. Brent crude is up 2.03% at $72.87 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up just 1.81% at $67.02 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. If the conflict concludes swiftly with a regime change in Iran, the US could withdraw sanctions on the country, leading to a jump in oil supply and a fall in crude prices, which would be good for India. "Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran...raised the growth forecast for the next financial year to 7-7.4% as against 6.8-7.2% projected in last month's Economic Survey," and "He said that the Indian economy was likely to cross $4 trillion next year." TOI. A deluge of good news. Not too good to be true. Is it? 

A need for undergarments.

"Describing BSNL's lavish arrangements for director Vivek Banzal's now called-off trip to Prayagraj 'improper and absurd', communications minister Jyotiriditya Scindia...said that 'appropriate action' will be taken against the senior executive of the state-run company." His "lavish four-page instructions detailing snan (bathing) kits, personal toiletries, undergarments and other comforts, including a retinue of nearly 50 officials to attend to Banzal and a chief general manager, has sparked concerns over misuse of official resources." TOI. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) is a public sector company which made a net loss of Rs 22.47 billion of taxpayer money in 2025. wikipedia. BSNL "has survived the past six years on massive government support funded by taxpayers. Despite revival packages of over Rs 3 trillion the company only reported its first quarterly profits in nearly two decades last year - and has since then slipped back into losses." man.com. Totally shameless entitlement. According to a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), 383 (18%), public sector units owned by state and Central governments are 'inactive'. And "Rs 57 billion at least, is tied up in inactive govt firms as investments across 18 state/UTs for which this CAG audit report is available," wrote Chandrima Banerjee. Use them for personal comfort. These entitled people have to fly. So, "India added 89 new airports in 11 years, opening one every 45 days on average." 15 Udan airports cost Rs 8.8 billion to build and "At least 48 airports saw less than five flights a day." MInt. Mr Narendra Modi was first elected prime minister 12 years ago, in 2014. wikipedia. As per "a recent communication from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) to the Lok Sabha Secretariat," "questions about PM CARES Fund, Prime Minister's National Relief Fund (PMNRF), and the National Defence Fund (NDF), which the PMO administers are not admissible under the House business rules." And not answerable to the Right to Information (RTI) Act, wrote Venkatesh Nayak. "The Prime Minister's Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund (PM CARES Fund) was created on 27 March 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic in India." wikipedia. After having denied an estimated excess deaths  of over 4 million from Covid, with a derisory figure of just 414,000 (BBC), the government has now admitted to two million excess deaths in 2021, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). HT. "Despite collecting a cess specifically for health, the Centre's spending on health is now lower than it was before the cess was imposed, both as a share of the total budget and as a proportion of the GDP." TOI. "The political class has written one set of laws for India and lives by another." "India does not need better politicians. It needs citizens angry enough to make them afraid," wrote Sachi Satpathy. Those who are naked in their greed won't care. They have reduced themselves to moral beggary. They need the dignity of undergarments first.       

Just another blockchain.

 "Digital Rupee or eRe, is India's Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)" "offering features similar to physical cash like convenience of use, guarantee of RBI, finality of settlement etc. eRe is stored in the user's digital wallet and can be used to receive / send money, and / or make payment for transactions, just like any physical Re note." rbi.org.in. Digital currency saves the cost of printing currency notes and is easy to trace, thereby allowing tax officials to stamp down on tax avoidance. "The financial outlay for security printing surged by almost 25% in the fiscal year 2024-25, reaching Rs 63.728 billion, compared to Rs 51.014 billion the previous year." ET. "CBDC operates on a secure, transparent blockchain network, and it uses an immutable record of all transactions. This means that all transactions are recorded on a decentralized ledger, making it impossible to modify or tamper with data." ibm.com. Transparent it may be, but safe it is not. Hackers got into the cloud storage of a UK couple "where they kept information about their crypto wallets (also based on blockchain), and how to access them. In February 2024, after a small test transfer, the criminals sent all the couple's coins to their own digital wallets in a swift and silent attack." "2025 was a bumper year for crypto criminals, with total thefts standing at more than $3.4bn, according to investigators at Blockchain analysis firms Chainalysis." BBC. If North Korean hackers attack CBDC wallets of Indian citizens can the RBI block or reverse the transactions? What if they attack the RBI itself? In February 2026, "Government of India launches CBDC-based Digital Food Currency pilot for Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Puducherry." pib.gov.in. The National Payments Corporation of India has created a Unified Payments Interface (UPI) instant payment transfers, which "facilitates inter-bank peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers and person-to- merchant transactions (P2M). wikipedia. However, India's currency in circulation (CiC) climbed to Rs 40 trillion in late 2025 and early 2026. Simultaneously, UPI payments have also reached a record high of Rs 28 trillion - 70% of CiC. This may be because people are spending more after reductions in income tax and GST rates, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Tapa Parida. Perhaps, not so simple. First, small traders have shifted to cash after receiving notices from tax authorities who traced UPI transactions. Second an "explosive growth of unconditional cash transfers, estimated at 2% of GDP across 15 states." Third, distribution of cash to bribe voters before state and national elections. And fourth, people use UPI for small transactions but cash for privacy of use, wrote Ajit Ranade. Since politicians are using cash for elections people follow their example. At least UPI are small transactions, CBDC could wipe out entire bank accounts. It's just a cryptocurrency in another name. Just as risky. Cash is in hand.              

Bond market whispers.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India's Real GDP grew at 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26 and by 8.0% in the first half of the current financial year. pib.gov.in. According to the First Advanced Estimates by MoSPI, Real GDP grew 7.4%, and Nominal GDP at 8.0% in Financial Year 2024-25. mospi.gov.in. And despite this scorching economic growth, India's net foreign direct investment (NFDI) "has actually been negative in the in the last 4 mths (-$2.40 bn in September 2025; -$0.167 bn in October; -$0.446 bn in November ; -$1.61 bn in December)." Because Indian companies are investing abroad, though modestly, and foreign investors are repatriating dollars by paring down their investments in Indian companies whose equities have been pushed sky high by domestic investors. "This is what dynamic capitalism should look like," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Is India really a capitalist country? Last week, the Supreme Court observed "That the seemingly endless freebies... at both the Union and state levels with no heed paid to who can or cannot pay amounts to 'appeasement'." "The 2024 poll results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are surmised to have been influenced by freebie schemes, as also last year's Bihar polls, whose freebie bill was was estimated to exceed Rs 300 billion." Mint. Axis Bank's research estimates that "nearly one-fifth of India's women are receiving cash payments. Total payments this year will be 0.5% of GDP, and in some states exceed 5% of the government's expenditure," wrote Ajit Ranade. Naturally, governments will need to borrow more from the markets? Last week, yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds spiked to 6.7214% on fears of US-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices. ET. Yesterday, yields fell to 6.6726% on strong buying investors in the 'others category', which includes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), who net bought bonds worth Rs 74.84 billion ($823.12 million). ET. Since February 2025, the RBI has cut its policy rates by 125 basis points (bps) and yet yields on GOI bonds rose 7 bps over the one year period. Because the government has increased its borrowing program to Rs 17.2 trillion and net borrowing to Rs 11.7 trillion in 2026-27. "In FY25, the RBI conducted net OMO (open market operations) purchases  totaling Rs 6.8 trillion and buy-sell swaps of $25 billion." Mint. India's merchandise trade deficit rose to $34.68 billion in January from $25.04 billion in December. ET. And yet, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $8.66 billion from a week earlier to hit an all-time high of $725.727 billion in the week ending 7 February." ET. So, the RBI is directly financing government borrowing as well as injecting liquidity by borrowing dollars. It may seem like a game but playing with currencies is not a good idea. According to the Bank of International Settlements foreign exchange trading and over the counter (OTC) derivatives trading reached $96 trillion per day in April 2-25, with the US dollar figuring in 89% of all forex trades. This is more than 10 times the entire RBI reserves - in just one day. A sudden spike in inflation or a fall in the rupee could seriously upset RBI's clever tricks. The bond market is whispering. Listen carefully. 

A stranglehold on a pillory.

 "US President Donald Trump in his State of the Union address to a joint session of the Congress...said that he prefers to solve the confrontation with Iran diplomatically," but "dubbed it 'world's no 1 sponsor of terrorism', adding that...he cannot let them have nuclear weapons." HT. Fresh protests have erupted in Iran as Trump's "special envoy Steve Witkoff has said that Trump is 'curious' as to why Iran has not 'capitulated' and agreed to curb its nuclear program, as rallies have taken place at universities in the Iranian capital, Tehran." CNN. The Iranian regime cannot compromise, not because it is a matter of principle, as according to Supreme Leader Ayatoallah Khamenei, "its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, nuclear enrichment is a right." DH. It is the classic dictator's 'pillory' (wikipedia), wherein any loss of power could result in swift retribution and even death. In the January protests the regime issued orders to kill. "The new thing I have seen in these protests, something we have not seen before, is that starting on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, the Basij and the riot police, authorizing direct fire," said journalist Fatemeh Jamalpur. As of 25 January, the Human Rights Activists News Agency claimed 5,848 confirmed killed. Fox. According to the Iran International, up to 12,000 civilians were killed and the massacre was conducted by the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and members of the Basij militia. wikipedia. These people would be terrified of trials and executions and may rise up in revolt if the regime shows any sign of weakness. The regime is in a straitjacket. On the one hand it cannot be seen to be weak and, on the other, its economy will continue its collapse if it does not reach some sort of compromise with the US. On 19 February, the market rate for the Iranian rial was between 1, 637,000 and 1,646,500 to one dollar. The government rate is at 1.28-1.29 million rials to one dollar. A worthless currency means an inflation rate of 50%-60%, with families struggling for food, fuel and medicines. ET. In 2024, the ministry of social affairs reported 57% of Iranians suffering from some form of malnutrition and unemployment at 50%  among males between 25 and 40 years of age. wikipedia. However, it is not just the US, the regime is directly responsible for the collapse. "Late last year, Ayandeh Bank, run by regime cronies and saddled with nearly $5 billion in losses on a pile of bad loans, went bust. The government folded the carcass into a state bank and printed massive amount of money to paper over the red ink." The currency collapsed and, with it, the economy. So, what are the options for the US? Any attack would give justification for the regime to resist, either directly or by using its proxies. In 2022, Houthis in Yemen hit Saudi Aramco's oil storage facility in Jeddah (Reuters) and in 2019, Houthi drones attacked oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia (wikipedia). Any major attack on Arab oil facilities, avoiding direct attack on US or Israeli forces and inviting reprisals, could send crude prices soaring, hitting the global economy. Alternatively, the US could continue its stranglehold, almost completely cutting Iran off from the world and wait for it to implode. It would cost a lot of money but could be safer. A stranglehold on a pillory. Probably impossible for the regime.    

A lawless bubble, or a human village?

"India AI Impact Summit 2026 concludes at Bharat Mandapam in Delhi...with strong Global Endorsement of India's responsible AI vision." "Electronics and IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said the Simmit has been a grand success on many fronts," and "investment pledges have crossed $250 billion for the infra-related investments and about $20 billion for the VC deep tech investments which have been committed by investors." newsonair.gov.in. In this year's Union Budget the government has set aside Rs 10 billion, or about $120 million for its AI mission. But, "One Nvidia H100 GPU, which is essential for modern AI costs about $30,000 to $40,000." The US CHIPS Act provides $52 billion while the EU support is 1 billion euros. "Running a 100-megawatt AI facility will cost Rs 6 billion to Rs 8 billion a year just for electricity." Almost the entire AI budget, wrote Arindam Goswami. Google has just released its artificial general intelligence (AGI), Gemini, to rival OpenAI, as well as its latest Ironwood Tensor Processing Unit, capable of 4,614 T flops of peak computing power and 192GB of high-bandwith memory, wrote Nilesh Jasani. AI is a major bubble "going back to gold in the 1970s and the internet boom of the late 1990s." US "households hold 52% of their wealth in stocks, which is higher than the peak in 2000 and far above levels in EU (30%) Japan (20%) and UK (15%)." "This time, the debts are building on the govt ledger, thanks to record deficits - a major risk." "The result is a strange new animal: a fully invested bear," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "The kind of software presently called AI, more technically referred to as 'machine learning'," "is making unscrupulous use of vast troves of human behavior collected by 'social media' and equally lawless appropriation of copyrighted cultural material." The Chinese are using AI for "social control intended to make Chinese Communist Party authoritarianism absolute and permanent." Instead, "We need fully open, user-enabling AI applications that serve humans rather than replace them," wrote Mishi Choudhary & Eben Moglen. "Humans reason morally within shared systems of values shaped by history, culture and social interaction. Machines, by contrast, simulate responses based on patterns in training data." "However you look at it - it takes a village," soothed Celeste Rodriguez Louro. The real danger is that, "In 2024, India's data centers consumed an estimated 150 billion liters of water. By 2030, that figure will more than double," wrote Arunabha Ghosh. India's population is expected to be around 1.477 billion in 2026 (worldometer) and to rise to nearly 1.7 billion in 2050. With 17% of the world's population, "India has access to only 4% of global freshwater resources." TOI. "Excessive groundwater extraction in India, over 25% of world's total, has thrown the planet off balance, literally shifting it from its axis, says a new study." News18. AI may be safe but a human village needs freshwater. Who wins?  

Need to borrow their god.

"In a swift reversal of fortunes, countries that had been hardest hit by US President Donald Trump's tariffs have emerged as the biggest winners from the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his emergency levies." ET. On 2 February, "India and the US agreed on an interim trade deal under which US tariffs on Indian goods were reduced to 18% from 25%." On 21 February, Trump announced the rate would be raised to 15% (from 10%), subject to the 150-day statutory limit." ET. Still it is a 3% advantage for India. But, "Nothing changes. They'll (India) be paying tariffs, and we will not be paying tariffs." "I also stopped the war between India and Pakistan. As you know 10 planes were shot down," said Trump. This is a little jibe against India where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed a great victory against Pakistan in Operation Sindoor (pib.gov.in). He then said "I think Prime Minister Modi is a great gentleman, a great man actually." Whether this was intended as a balm, or tongue in cheek, is left to our imagination. However, other pressure points seem to have been activated. "The US Securities and and Exchange Commission has asked a US court for helping in serving summonses upon Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and group executive Sagar Adani over alleged fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme, filings show." Reuters. In addition, "Adani Enterprises said...that a US agency is conducting a civil investigation into the company's transactions that may have involved Iran or parties subject to US sanctions." Reuters. This is following "allegations cited in a Wall Street Journal report published in June last year," which "had claimed that Billionaire Adani was attempting to persuade officials in the administration of US President Donald Trump to drop bribery charges against him." ET. Mr Modi's friendship with Mr Adani is common knowledge, with Congress leader Jairam Ramesh claiming that "the real equation to consider is "Modi+Adani=Modani". TOI. "As early as 2015, a prominent Indian newspaper reported that everywhere Modi went 'Adani was sure to go'. This support has not always helped India. On the contrary, by brazenly promoting the oligarch's ambitions, Modi has sometimes hurt his country's relations with her neighbors as well as other countries." Adani Watch. Meanwhile, Nikhil Gupta has confessed to a conspiracy to assassinate Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and named former India's intelligence officer Vikash Yadav as his handler in a New York court. There is a US arrest warrant for Yadav. The Wire. The Indian government cannot hand over an intelligence operative to another nation, so what happens now? More sanctions? As long as voters don't know, who cares. So, the government's "User Manual for Sahyog (meaning 'collaboration') Portal (IT intermediaries)" "makes it clear that orders are unilateral, and a direct correspondence between government agencies and intermediate platforms like social media and telecom providers. The content excludes journalists or content creators from the definition of 'stakeholders'." The Wire. Fascism works at home. Not in other countries. However, as long as there is an army of deluded Bhakts, with heads full of dung, the vote bank is rock solid. Perhaps, we should borrow America's God in whom they trust.           

Don't hold your breath.

 "India's year-on -year retail inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), based on the revised base year 2024, stood at 2.75% in January 2026, compared to January 2025, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." "The CPI base year has been revised from 2012 to 2024 using data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES)." The new series starts at 100 from 2024 and ensures that "the index remains representative of current household consumption patterns, price structures and the evolving nature of the Indian economy." ddnews.gov.in. The percentage of different items in the CPI basket has been adjusted to reflect the differences in spending by households between 2012 and 2024. Weight of food and beverages have been reduced from 42.62% to 36.75%, because of lower spending on food, while spending on Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, Health, Transport, Education Services and Restaurants and accommodation services have exploded. Yet their weights have been increased only slightly. Finshots. While spending on restaurants and entertainment may be optional, housing, energy, health, transport and education are obligatory. Shouldn't they have higher weights? This government first came to power in 2014, with 282 seats (272 required for majority) in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. Since then average inflation per calendar year has run at over 4% annually. rateinflation,com, CPI inflation is a comparison with the previous year's prices. This is the 'base effect'. Investopedia. CPI inflation was 4.98% last year and has fallen to 2.75% this year. This does not mean that prices have fallen but that they have risen 2.75% on last year's prices. So, inflation compounds over time. Core inflation leaves out volatile food and energy prices and perhaps gives a truer picture of the burden of rising costs on people. Investopedia. The government does not release the core CPI data but according to CEIC, core CPI inflation was at 3.375% in January 2026 over 4.98% in December 2025 and has averaged 5.362% from Jan 2012 to Jan 2026. CEIC. Which means that anything which cost Rs 1,000 in Jan 2012 would cost Rs 2,077 now. investor. gov. It would be helpful to be told the CPI inflation using the new basket of consumption as well as the old one so that we can compare, without the circus in 2019 when the government was suspected of massaging GDP back series data to show a higher growth rate compared to the previous Congress-led government. Acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), PC Mohanan and member of NSC, J Meenakshi resigned in protest. Reuters. Prof Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, has recently visited various schools in Purulia in Bengal, Bangalore and in Pune and was impressed that "The discussions were rigorous and unsparing." His last visit was to Delhi. "There pouring over the latest economic data and listening to political leaders respond to mounting challenges with familiar slogans, my optimism began to fade. India's promise is undeniable and its talent abundant, yet politics and empty rhetoric continue to undermine prospects." Mint. It's not about base year, consumption basket or household spending but about whether the figures will be actual, or just for chest thumping, which no one will believe. Better not to hold our breaths.  

A humble request.

 Delhi proposes "the rollout of an AI-powered Integrated Traffic Management System (ITMS) that will use automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras, smart traffic signals and automated challans." ET. A 'challan' is a traffic citation with a hefty fine (wikipedia) to collect as much ransom from long-suffering drivers as possible. Ironically, "While global tech titans and world leaders have gathered for India AI Impact  Summit 2026 at Bharat Mandapam in Delhi to discuss the future of artificial intelligence and seamless connectivity," several people, including delegates, "were forced to walk for kilometers after the event to find a cab as the entry of vehicles on the roads outside Bharat Mandapam was barred for VVIP movement and entry to the nearest metro station was closed." DH. While people outside were badly treated, "I was sort of confused and didn't know what I was supposed to do," Open AI CEO Sam Altman said, hours after his 'no handshake' moment with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Amodei founded Open AI with Altman but left to found its competitor Anthropic. "Modi grabbed my hand and put it up, and I wasn't sure what we were doing," he said. Don't worry, Sir, the whole thing was just a photo-op to showcase the Great Man at great cost, part of which may be financed by challans on people whose daily lives were being completely upset. A VVIP, or a Very, Very Important Person, (wikpedia) is a very, very special subgroup of homo sapiens whose habitat is only in India, and is higher than the more common VIP, or Very Important Person, and who can do anything with total impunity, guarded by the police and special forces, ready to shoot if any citizen should dare to protest. While a VIP can shut a stadium to walk his dog, or demand superiority over our Gods, a VVIP can, and does, halt ambulances carrying critical patients to hospital, resulting in their deaths. News18. So why is Delhi Traffic Police unable to manage traffic? Because, "Against a sanctioned strength of 6,102  personnel. only 4,901 are currently in position." Of these, "on any given day, nearly 500 personnel are on leave, another 500 are diverted for special duties and VIP deployment," and the rest are gainfully employed catching anyone without a Pollution Under Control Certificate (PUC) which every vehicle must carry,to be renewed every year for new vehicles to every three months for older ones, upon payment of a fee to augment Delhi government's coffers. ddnews.gov.in. "The India AI Impact Summit 2026 has attracted investment commitments  of over $250 billion related to infrastructure, Union IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said. Humble request to Messrs Pichai, Altman and Amodei: Please stay away from India. AI will only be used to increase the powers of the VVIP coterie and enslave us, the unlucky citizens of India. We will be most grateful. Thank you. 

Friendly, but for how long?

"Washington blinks, New Delhi benefits," "giving Indian exporters an edge over competitors from Bangladesh (20% tariffs), Vietnam (20%), Indonesia (19%) and China (37%), one can visualise a surge that will speed up India's fast-moving economic engine," wrote Sreeram S Chaulia. Critics are saying that India has lost its strategic autonomy by pledging to give up Russian oil, but, "The reality is that access to US markets, capital, know-how and technology is far more important for the Indian economy (and job creation) than any savings from Russian crude oil discounts," wrote Tanvi Madan. That is the long-term wish, but what happens to short-term revenue for the government. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. In January, "India's average crude oil imports cost fell below $60 a barrel,..among the lowest it has been in five years despite...sanctions against three major crude oil suppliers - Iran, Russia and Venezuela." HT. The government may levy a windfall tax on "The three state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)...which "posted a combined net profit of Rs 340.67 billion in the first half of 2025-26, a 269.4% year-on-year jump that exceeded their full-year profit of Rs 336.02 billion in 2024-25." HT. The government of course squeezes enormous dividends out of the public sector enterprises (PSE) it controls. It has already received Rs 526.67 billion out of PSEs in the financial year 2025-26, which ends on 31 March. dipam.gov.in. "Geopolitics and geo-economics both suggest that our choice in the new G-2 world is to partner either with the US (with which we have a lot in common, starting with democracy) or with China-Russia," and "China's expansionist and mercantilist tendencies should be both contained and reduced," wrote Surjit S Bhalla. Hence, a partnership with the US will protect us. Or, will it? In 2010, during Barack Obama, "In the last three years, the US has provided 14 F-16s, five fast petrol boats, 115 self-propelled howitzer field artillery canons," ostensibly to fight the Taliban. India Today. In 2019, Imran Khan, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, said that the Inter-Servicea Intelligence (ISI) helped the CIA to kill Osama bin Laden in 2011. DH. In 2012, Obama won re-election for his second term in office. wikipedia. In the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, which led to East Pakistan becoming independent Bangladesh, President Richard Nixon discussed asking the Chinese to attack India and, possibly, use nuclear weapons to stop Indian advance. Dhaka Tribune. Russian submarines and ships put the US, UK and Austrlian navies to flight. India Times. Besides, the deal was necessary only because Trump had imposed a reciprocal tariff of 25% unilaterally and a penal tariff of 25% for buying Russian oil. There is no guarantee that Trump won't increase the tariff if he is dissatisfied with India's pace of reforms, as he did to South Korea, wrote Swaminathan Aiyer. China is our existential enemy, the US is fickle but Russia has been our proven friend. We are paying the US for its deal. Let's deal with Russia as well. A friend in need, a friend forever. 

Flow of liquidity.

In its December 2025 meeting, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.5% to 5.25%, but in the latest meeting in February, "The RBI has kept its key lending rate, known as the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25% in the first monetary policy decision since the budget." NDTV. "Given the impending revision in two key macroeconomic numbers - gross domestic product (GDP) estimates where the base year is to be brought forward to 2022-23 from 2011-12 at present and consumer price inflation (CPI), where the base is to be moved forward to 2024 from 2011-12 now - any other decision would have risked rocking the boat," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. In 2025, the RBI cut its policy rate by a total of 125 bps, from 6.5% to 5.25%, bringing the interest rate down by 105 bps on fresh bank loans and interest paid on fresh term deposits by 95 bps. ET. In addition, the RBI announced a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps from 4% to 3% in tranches of 25 bps. This was expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system. ET. CRR is the money commercial banks must deposit with the RBI without interest and cannot be used for lending or investment. (Kotak Bank). "According to the Economic Survey, average surplus liquidity in the system was a mind boggling 117 times that of the previous year." "What is left unsaid is that, as the government's debt manager, it will manage liquidity so that the government's borrowing goes through successfully and at a low cost." In its efforts to release more money into the system, the RBI has been buying government bonds. "The RBI has already stepped in aggressively this financial year, purchasing nearly Rs 7 trillion worth of bonds, a move that helped cap yields." Mint. By taking the government's debt on to itself the RBI is monetizing the fiscal deficit (BS). Creating fresh money to finance government spending is supposed to be inflationary but the RBI is probably reassured by the CPI inflation falling to an annualised rate of 1.33% in December 2025 (mospi.gov.in). In addition, "The Centre is budgeting a record Rs 3.16 trillion in dividend receipts from the RBI and public sector banks (PSBs) in 2026-27,..helping to keep the fiscal deficit under check. TOI. Last year, the RBI dished out a record Rs 2.68 trillion (newsonair.gov.in) and in 2023-24 it was another record Rs 2.11 trillion (Grip Investment). The bond market seems unimpressed with the RBI's liquidity flood. The benchmark 10-year bond yield is at 6.754%, down a tad from 6.769% on 02 February. investing.com. India's foreign exchange reserves may have been at a record $723.77 billion on 30 January (BS), but even this may not be enough if foreign investors take fright and the government runs up a big deficit because of loss of revenue from free trade agreements. The RBI was nationalised in 1949 (rbi.org.in), so it is paying the government. It is creating a flood of money but can it control the flood? Liquidity is liquid. It may flow out..      

Better to be monkey. Than hostile.

 Three days back, "A pit six meters long four meters wide and deep, dug by the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) on a service road in Janakpuri in West Delhi," resulted in the death of 25-year-old Kamal Dhayani, He was found next morning at the bottom of the pit, still wearing his helmet, with his motorcycle lying next to him. While, "Delhi Police officials said the bike could have fallen while trying to ride over the dug-up mounds of earth," "the DJB said that there was green mesh and safe barricading at the site." TIE. So, he must have committed suicide. Case closed. Many people saw the accident and the victim lying at the bottom of the pit but no one informed the police until a woman, Shivani, came on the scene. HT. It may be because most people feel that no one will be held responsible and they would be forced to turn into 'hostile witnesses'. "In India, in most cases involving the rich and the influential people or corrupt politicians, witnesses turn hostile, making the rule of law a mockery. Very often witnesses become untraceable. Sometimes they are just eliminated." Law Teacher. "While the sub-contractor, identified as Rajesh Kumar Prajapati, 47, was arrested...and booked for culpable homicide, the main contractor and the laborer, identified by his single name Yogesh, were absconding." HT. Delaying arrest gives time to contact influential friends, pay off key individuals and appoint a lawyer adept at seeking adjournments from polite judges. Criminal cases take and average of 5-20 years to resolve (jsrohilla.in) and this gives ample time for the accused to intimidate witnesses into turning hostile. In 2008, 13 year-old girl Aarushi Talwar and 45 year-old man Yam Prasad 'Hemraj' Benjade were murdered inside Aarushi's home, with doors locked from the inside, but no one was found responsible. wikipedia. In 2021, a 19 year-old lower caste woman was found in a field by her family "battered and bruised, barely conscious and naked from the waist downwards. Her spine was broken, she was bleeding and vomiting blood." "In her 'dying declaration', the 19-year-old told a magistrate that she had been gang raped and strangled and named four of her neighbors as the perpetrators." BBC. Three of the four men have been found innocent and one found guilty of a lesser charge. wikipedia. In 2006-07, bodies of 17 children were dug up in Nithari, a village in Uttar Pradesh. One Surinder Koli was found guilty of murder in 10 of the children and his employer Maninder Singh Pandher was found guilty of two, Both were sentenced to death by Allahabad High Court in 2023. wikipedia. In 2025, the Supreme Court found both men not guilty. BBC. In India, people are murdered by no one. It follows, therefore, no one is responsible for children dying by drowning in manholes which have been left open. "The National Crimes Bureau (NCRB) reveals a sobering reality: In India, one person dies every 12 hours from falls into open pits and manholes, with a staggering 5393 such deaths recorded since 2015." Inventiva. If you see nothing and hear nothing you will have to say nothing, or else, you will face serious hostility from goons. Could be labeled 'hostile'. Or end up in a pit. Better to be one of the monkeys. And alive.  

It's only Interim.

The India-US Joint Statement on a trade deal has been announced which brings down reciprocal tariffs on a range of Indian goods exported to the US to 18%. Reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of goods could be removed "subject to the successful conclusion of the interim agreement." "India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and cooking coal over the next 5 years." pib.gov.in. A reciprocal tariff of 26% was imposed on India in the Executive Order 14257, published on 4 April 2025, which complained that "the United States has among the lowest simple average MFN (most favored nation) tariff rates in the world at 3.3%," India was charging a rate of 17%. - a rate of 70% on passenger vehicles, 80% for rice in the husk, 50% for apples and 10% for network switches and routers. Seems to have a point. At 18%, India will have an advantage over Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%), wrote Arpita Mukherjee. "The deal comes at a time when exporters of labor-intensive products like garments, footwear and leather items were feeling the pinch of high tariffs imposed in 2025." "Under the agreement, India will remove or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a broad basket of agricultural products, including dried distillers' grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, soybean oil, wine and spirits." India Today. Red sorghum, or Lal Jowar, is already grown in India (gonefarmers.com), so why do we need to import it free of tariffs? While most goods sold in India come under the goods and services tax (GST) collected by the Union government, states levy their own taxes on alcoholic drinks. "It's estimated that taxes on liquor and beer fetch the state governments nearly Rs 900 billion annually." cleartax.in. Will states be free to levy their own taxes on American wine and spirits, which will raise their prices, and if not, will they have to reduce taxes on Indian wine and spirits so that they can compete? Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal "asserted that India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products sectors will continue to be shielded. He also clarified that no genetically modified products from the US will be allowed in India as part of the trade deal." TOI. "The joint statement says both sides have agreed to strengthen economic security alignment to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation through 'complementary actions'," which, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava "suggests that India's security and economic policies may increasingly need to align with those of the United States." TNIE. Reassuringly, "Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani have hired prominent attorneys in the US - including one of Donald Trump's lawyers and a former Mafia prosecutor - to represent them in their defence against allegations of securities fraud leveled by the Securities and Exchange Commission." Mint. The Mafia and the Don, they should be safe. India is paying only $500 billion for the trade deal. Seems like a bargain. 

Expecting the unexpected.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its latest meeting yesterday. The forecast for economic growth was raised from 7.3% to 7.4% and that for consumer price index (CPI) inflation was raised from 2.0% to 2.1%. Mint. Earlier, the US Federal Reserve had voted to hold its lending rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, "citing still-elevated inflation alongside solid economic growth, ad giving little indication in its latest policy statement of when borrowing costs may fall again." Reuters. The hawkish outlook from the Fed meant that "The US dollar hit a two-week high...as fresh volatility gripped stocks and the pound tumbled after the Bank of England voted by a razor-thin margin to leave UK rates unchanged." Reuters.The rupee has strengthened by almost Rs 2 against the dollar, from 92.043 on 28 January to 90.596 to one dollar yesterday. Investing.com. Perhaps the RBI does not want any pressure on the rupee as traders look for risk-off investments. In good news, India's foreign currency reserves jumped to $723.8 billion in the week ending 30 January, "providing a robust merchandise imports cover of more than 11 months." Foreign currency reserves fell by $493 million but the value of gold reserves jumped by $14.59 billion as the price of gold soared on the spot market. ET. Since then the price of gold has crashed from  a high of $5,400.25 per ounce to $4,961.15 yesterday. Investing,com. India and the RBI have not forgotten the crisis of 1991 when our forex reserves fell to just $1.2 billion, barely enough to cover 3 weeks of essential imports. India had to airlift 47 tons of gold to the Bank of England and another 20 tons to the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million and avert the crisis. wikipedia. When asked, former RBI Governor Prof Raghuram Rajan "reportedly said there was no point at which a country could feel safe, unless it had accumulated trillions of dollars like China." We gain foreign exchange from exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), overseas loans and remittances by Indian expatriates. "The Indian diaspora sent home $135.46 billion in the last fiscal year, the highest on record." And the highest in the world. ET. The concern is that remittances are much higher than FDI. Between 2014-15, FDI, which is expected to be long term has been steady at around $30 billion annually, while foreign portfolio investment (FPI), which is short term, has been volatile. However, repatriation of FDI "jumped from $18 billion pre-pandemic to $44 billion and $51 billion in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively." And, outward investment by Indian entities doubled from $13 billion in 2019-20 to $28 billion in 2024-25. Mint. The RBI has played safe. Which is good because the world seems unpredictable. We could face the unexpected. Suddenly.   

Don to the rescue.

"A robust economy forms the foundation of a strong foreign policy and India must grow faster and increase its share of global trade to gain respect on the world stage, economist and NITI Aayog's former vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar has said." "India's share of global merchandise has remained below 2% for the last three decades," and "In the services sector, India's global share stands at around 4%." ET. On Friday, 03 February, "Shares of Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and Wipro dropped sharply, falling by as much as 6% by 9.30 am," US artificial intelligence firm (AI) Anthropic released new tools "designed to handle routine legal work such as contract checks, non-disclosure agreement reviews, legal summaries and standard drafting tasks." NDTV. It has been coming. "In the 12 months leading up to August 2025, Accenture pulled in $4.78 billion in new business - a figure that surpasses the combined incremental revenue ($3.92 billion) generated by India's 15 largest IT services firms in 2024-25." 'Over half ($2.7 billion) of Accenture's new revenue came from advanced AI solutions," wrote Jas Bardia & Varun Sood." "According to Stanford's AI Index Report 2025, in 2024 the US led with 40 notable AI models, followed by China with 15. With these regions controlling nearly all LLMs that have achieved a global footprint, India faces a formidable challenge." "Bain & Co (2025) warned that India could face a shortfall of over a million skilled professionals by 2027." "R&D spending is also low, at 0.6% of GDP in 2024, versus 2.68% in China and roughly 3.5% in the USA." ET. As per the IMF, projected nominal GDP of the US was $30.62 trillion, China's was $19.4 trillion and India's was $4.13 trillion in 2025. Worldometer. It means that, in absolute numbers, the US spent $1.07 trillion while India spent an almost negligible $24,7 billion on R&D in 2024. "Recently, India's most valuable company paused its lithium-ion battery plant because it could not get Chinese technology." "The company could have funded a big research project. Instead it waited for technology from China." Why try to innovate when you can buy, wrote Arindam Goswami. Indians are afraid of failure. "Only the USA stands out as a country that has socially accepted the idea of failure as a legitimate option, worthy of praise." ET. "Patent filings by DPIIT recognized startups have crossed 13,000, since 2021, trademark filings have exceeded 44,000." Filing a patent "can help a founder make a pitch to investors." But, once the funding round closes, no actual patent is achieved, wrote Pravin Kaushal. Similarly, patent filings by educational institutions have risen from 20% to 42% of all filings. But the lack of revenue from licensing patents show that they are merely to improve their rankings, wrote Mihir Mahajan & Arindam Goswami. Artificial intelligence is created by human intelligence. Over one hundred years ago, American Robber Barons established universities and encouraged innovation. Edsurge. Protected by high tariffs our lot has been filing fake patents and begging from China. Perhaps the zero tariff on US goods forced on Mr Modi by Donald Trump (HT) may force them to start investing in R&D, to survive. We may yet hail the Don as our savior. Don of all people! Who would have thought that?        

An oily conundrum.

"In early September, after meeting Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Narendra Modi "dispatched his National Security Adviser (NSA) to Washington to help over fraying ties." Mr Ajit Doval told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, "India wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal," and that "New Delhi wanted Trump and his aides to dial down their public criticism of India." HT. Or else what? Give more money to China? As per Chinese Customs, India's exports to China increased by $5.5 billion to $19.75 billion in 2025, while imports from China jumped 12.8% to $135.87 billion, giving us a record trade deficit of $116.12. TOI. "Russia faces a steep drop in oil income if Trump successfully pressures India to stop importing Russian crude," which has already "dropped 22% to 1.38 million barrels per day in December from November, their lowest since January 2023, reducing Russia's share in Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC's share rose to 53.2%." Reuters. Seems unlikely that Rubio was quaking with fear at threats from Mr Doval. Meanwhile, "China's trade with Russia in 2025 pulled back from a record level in 2024," to 1.63 trillion yuan ($234 billion). Since February 2022, China has been "buying Russian oil, coal and gas and selling goods from cars to electronics to its northern neighbor." Reuters. However, oil could yet have an enormous influence on what happens to our economy, as "aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided missile destroyers have crossed into the Middle East, which comes under the US Central Command." "Trump had repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters, but the countrywide demonstrations have since abated." Reuters. "For nearly half a century, Iran has prepared for a war with the United States." "Iran is believed to have thousands of missiles and drones within range of US troops based in a number of countries in the Middle East and has threatened to strike them, as well as Israel." CNN. Obviously, the US will need to be guided by Israel, as Israel has repeatedly revealed its intelligence network in Iran. In June 2025, "Israeli Air Force jets, guided by precise intelligence, targeted nuclear facilities, military commanders and soldiers, destroying dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers, according to a statement by the country's War Room." NDTV. Israel could have been supplying intelligence already as, "The top US and Israeli generals held talks at the Pentagon on Friday (30 January) amid soaring tensions with Iran." Reuters. "Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the US on Friday (tomorrow) in Oman, Iranian media reported." ET. Iran's threat against the US and Israel could be a bluff because it knows that any attack will invite severe reprisals. Instead, it could choose to target oil installations just across the Gulf in Saudi Arabia and the UAE which would send the price of oil shooting up like a missile. What would India do if that happens? Scaring Rubio won't work. Go back to Russia? Trump notwithstanding.   

The budget may need some help.

"Indian stock markets witnessed a historic surge on Tuesday, 3 February," so that, "The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies increased to Rs 467.35 trillion from Rs 455 trillion in the previous session, translating into a gain of more than Rs 12.5 trillion in a single day." The reason for the euphoria was that "After prolonged negotiations, US President Donald Trump confirmed that reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods would be reduced to 18%, a steep cut from the earlier 50%." Mint. The rupee which had sunk to a record low of 92.043 against the US dollar on 28 January, joined in the celebrations, appreciating over 1% to close at 90.423 on 03 February. Investing.com. "After months of tariff threats...New Delhi has finally sealed a trade deal with the United States - not by yielding early but by waiting out the noise." "Even as talks dragged on, New Delhi quietly accelerated trade engagement elsewhere, signing five trade agreements over the past year - including a landmark pact with the European Union." ET. On the other hand, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai hailed the deal as "Another historic victory for American workers, farmers and industries." ET. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer claimed that Indian tariffs on US industrial goods will fall from 13.5% to zero and also tariffs "for a variety of things...tree nuts, wine, spirits, fruits, vegetables, etc, they're going down to zero." ET. After two decades of negotiations, India and the European Union clinched a free trade deal last month. In it, "Tariffs on premium European wines will also be cut in stages, falling from 150% to as low as 20% over seven years, while lower priced wines are excluded." TT. In the trade deal between India and the United Kingdom customs duty on Scotch whiskey will come down from 150% to 75% and thereafter gradually to 40% over the next decade. ET. If India is to cut duties on US wines and spirits to zero in one fell swoop, both the EU and the UK may demand the same concessions and, since both agreements are yet to be ratified by their respective parliaments, they could be sent back for re-negotiations. "Replacing Russian crude with market-priced oil could see India's import bill rise by as much as $4 billion (Rs 362 billion at today's exchange rate of 90.50) (MC) but a report by State Bank of India (SBI) Research claimed that switching to Venezuelan heavy crude could cut our impost bill by $3 billion. "It noted that a discount of USD 10-12 per barrel on Venezuelan crude would be sufficient to make the choice economically neutral for Indian importers." ANI. Why should Venezuela give a discount when we have already agreed to Trump's demand? Some sectors like leather and textiles may see some benefits but the nation could incur a large deficit. That brings us to the Budget. But, that's another story. 

18% + $500 billion to go, for zero return.

Celebrating an abject surrender, "US President Donald Trump announced that he agreed to a trade deal with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where the US will lower tariffs on goods from India to 18% from 25%." The 25% penalty for buying Russian oil will also be dropped. Instead India will buy more US oil and $500 billion worth of American goods and possibly also more Venezuelan oil. BBC. In 2024, a full year of trade before 26% reciprocal tariffs were imposed in April 2025 (Reuters), "US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $212.3 in 2024." The US exported goods worth $41.5 billion to India and imported $87.3 billion worth of goods from India, incurring a trade deficit of $45.8 billion. In services, the US exported $41.8 billion and imported $41.6 billion for a surplus of $102 million. ustr.gov. "Russia has sharply increased the discount on its Urals crude oil sold to India. In several cases, the discount compared to global oil prices exceeded $25 per barrel. For some individual cargoes, discounts approached $40 per barrel." man.com. "India imported about 144 billion euros' ($170.09 billion) worth of crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said." NDTV. Now we have to buy US oil at market prices. Seems that our losses will be far more than any potential gains. In another standoff with the US, in January 2026, "After India challenged its authority to issue summonses, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has moved a federal court to bypass diplomatic channels and allow service on Gautam and Sagar Adani via their US counsel and email." "The move marks a shift in the agency's 14-month effort," following, "On December 14, 2025, the SEC received letters from the Indian Ministry of Law and Justice, date November 4, citing a new and unexpected objection." This was the second time, the first rejection was in April 2025. The Wire. In addition, "The US SEC has arranged to serve Gautam Adani with a civil fraud lawsuit, allowing the regulator's case against India's second-richest person to proceed." CNBC. On 01 February 2026, "Billionaire Gautam Adani and his nephew, Sagar Adani, have agreed to receive a legal notice from US SEC in a civil fraud lawsuit alleging they misled investors about a bribery scheme, according to the court filing." TOI. The civil case is in addition to a criminal charge of bribery by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn. Mr Adani's lawyers have not accepted the jurisdiction of the Eastern District of New York. The trade deal will be hailed as a huge achievement, but a group of more than 800 small businesses in the US noted that effective tariffs on Indian imports were 2-3% but are at 18% now (Reuters) and could rise any time if any Russian oil is imported. Trump also announced that India has agreed to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers on American goods potentially to zero. India Today. We give away everything and get some small change in return. They said stand and deliver and we did. Why?