Optimistic Dr Doom.

"The US economy may be headed for something more dangerous than a typical downturn," as economist Torsten Slok "has warned that America is on the verge of a critical inflection point for stagflation, a situation where inflation remains elevated while growth decelerates - something that is particularly challenging to address." ET. Senator Elizabeth Warren thinks that as "The tariffs drive up prices on consumers at the same time businesses hold off on new investments and credit tightens. Consumer debt, which is already rising, soars as regulators dramatically ease crisis-era rules and enforcement priorities. The soaring US debt, exacerbated by Trump's massive agenda bill, leaves economic ability in question." CNN. "Inflation is rising while the dollar is falling, and Trump's just-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act is projected to add a whopping $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit." "The result, says economist Robert Shapiro, is that the United States economy has become dangerously unstable and vulnerable to financial shocks." Washington Monthly. However, "JP Morgan Research has reduced the probability of a US and global recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%." "Small US companies, the source of more than half of the country's jobs creation in recent years, are struggling to comply with President Donald Trump's new tariffs and cope with growing financial strains...from higher imports costs. Bloomberg. "Economists estimated that every percentage point increase in the tariff rate would shave 0.1% off US growth and add 0.1% to inflation." "The bigger mystery is why the stagflationary impact of tariffs has yet to materialise." Could be because, "foreign exporters are indeed absorbing 20% of costs" and "estimates of what big tech companies will spend this year on building out AI infra have risen $60 billion to $350 billion." wrote Ruchir Sharma. Even 'Doctor Doom' is optimistic. "Wall Street has been calling him 'Dr Doom' for 17 years, but Nouriel Roubini - the economist famous for his persistently bearish and frequently dystopian takes on the world economy - is sounding surprisingly positive lately." BI. Prof Roubini thinks that as Trump's "most damaging economic policies take a milder form," "the positive effects of technology will always trump the negative effects of tariffs" and the "potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of this decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s." "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%. The reason: America is the world leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech," wrote Dr Roubini. Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India. BBC. How should India respond? "This is an opportunity for the industry and the government to work together to accelerate economic reforms and make India truly competitive," wrote President of the Confederation of Indian industry (CII) Rajiv Memani. From factor market, labor laws, taxes, energy distribution to mining, all need to be reformed. But, true competition will only happen when tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports are reduced or dropped. That will compel Indian industry to innovate and improve quality to world-class levels at competitive prices instead of gouging excess profits out of a helpless captive Indian market. Are our fat cats ready for that? Or just one-way reforms?