Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Everyone wins.
"A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding after days of conflict between the Middle East's arch rivals." CBS. This was after, "At about 6.40 pm ET, or 2.10 am in Iran, the lead B-2 dropped two 'bunker-buster' bombs known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, on the site at Fordow." "More than 125 US aircraft participated in this mission," 14 MOPs were dropped on Fordow and Natanz and "More than 75 precision-guided weapons were used in the attack." CBS. Each GBU-57 cost $20 million, so 14 bombs work out to a cool $280 million. BT. However, after all this drama, "The US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have only set the country's program back by months, not destroyed it, according to an early Pentagon intelligence review." ET. Even if the sites have been destroyed "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) acknowledged just five days into the conflict its inspectors had lost track of Iran's 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly enriched uranium - enough for 10 nuclear warheads." ET. No matter. US strikes have been an amazing success. Trump can ease sanctions on Iranian oil (NDTV) which he would dearly love to do. Already crude oil has crashed to $66 a barrel from $79 a barrel a few days back. ET. If Iran starts selling oil, prices will fall even further. Lower oil prices will bring down inflation, potentially canceling the price pressure of higher tariffs. Trump has been demanding the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that prices could rise because of tariffs and "the central bank was is no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime." Reuters. If cheaper oil brings down inflation the Fed would have no reason not to cut its policy rate. Lower interest rate in the US may weaken the dollar which is trading at a 3-1/2-year low against the euro (ET) and the dollar index is down 5.7% to 103.72 from 109.96 in mid-January. Mint. Trump wants a weaker dollar to help US manufacturing exports. Outlook. The Iranian regime will gain from the lifting of sanctions. Iran's currency the rial has fallen to over 42,000 to one dollar (xe.com) and its inflation rate is at 43.3% (imf.org). Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) denied reports that Israel is running low on missile interceptors. Times of Israel. But, interception has not been fully successful because 28 Israelis - all but one of them civilians - have been killed and over 3,000 injured by Iranian missiles. Times of Israel. So Israel can claim victory, even if not complete. Pakistan is happy because its Army Chief Asim Munir was invited for lunch with Trump at the White House (NDTV) and may have been entrusted with passing on US plans to Iran which allowed Iran to move all contents from the Fordow nuclear site by trucks (NY Post). It's win-win-win-win for all four. That makes Donald Trump a genius. As for India, we could be facing 500% tariffs if a new bipartisan bill for increased sanctions on Russia is passed. ET. Will we surrender to US bullying and give up Russia which, during the Soviet Union era, staunchly supported us. That will need guts.
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