Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Make the citizens rich.

"Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in October, in gross terms, were Rs 1.87 trillion, an 8.9% increase from the previous year, according to data from the finance ministry." "In April 2024, GST collections reached a record high of Rs 2.10 trillion. The total gross GST for the fiscal year 2023-24 was Rs 20.18 trillion, an increase of 11.7% from the previous fiscal year." ET. "India's manufacturing growth gained momentum in October after decelerating for three months as demand improved significantly, helping in job creation and leading to better business outlook, according to a business survey." The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in October from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September." ET. "E-commerce platforms recorded total sales of nearly Rs 1 trillion (about $11.9) during the month-long festive season that ended last week," as "Demand from non-metro consumers, and increased purchases of luxury brands boosted transactions." The highest demand was for smartphones. ET. "A rise in defaults by over-leveraged small borrowers is hitting India's top lenders, with bank executives and analysts expecting higher levels of stress in personal loans and micro-credit segments over the last year." Bad loans had dropped to a low of 2.8% of all assets as of end-March, according to the RBI. "In the September quarter, however, five of the eight largest private sector banks have reported an increase in bad loans." "Most banks have also increased provisions, or funds set aside to cover bad loans, in anticipation of a rise in defaults." Reuters. Also, "Rising delinquencies in credit card receivables have made banks wary of ramping up subscriber additions in the festive season. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that the pace of new card additions slowed to 620,000 from 920,000 in August," and "New card issuances have fallen by more than 64% from the year earlier." The delinquencies in private loans and credit cards may be because private spending was being financed by borrowing. "Private consumption, historically the backbone of India's GDP, shows troubling signs of deceleration,dropping from 58.1% of GDP in FY22 to 55.8% in FY24." "As we are in the Diwali season - a time traditionally characterised by increased consumer spending - there are signs of a lull." Even "the FMCG sector, generally resilient even in slowdowns, reports a shift toward essential items as inflation dampens demand." DH. How is the GST collection rising when consumption is falling and defaults are rising? A very large reason must be an uncontrolled rise in prices along with a rise in sales of high value goods and services. "The US-based Pew Research Center projected the pre-Covid strength of the Indian middle-class - defined as those earning between USD 10_USD 20 or Rs 25,000 - Rs 50,000 a month - at about 99 million." TNIE. That is a very small number defined by paltry earnings. Squeezing them relentlessly will only make them poorer. Only rich citizens make a rich nations.         

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