Don't fall for it.

"The world's most populous nation is more poorly endowed with farmland per capita than Greece or Algeria." "India is falling well behind other major auto markets in its shift to electric cars," but "The government is running ahead of its 10% ethanol blending mandate and looks on track to hit a 20% rate as it seeks to trim its oil import bill," wrote David Fickling. "Ethanol's carbon footprint (CF) at 0.295kg CO2 equivalent per liter is lower than that of fossil fuels," but "The production process involves significant emissions," and "the most alarming is the water footprint (WF) of ethanol: 1,344 liters per liter of ethanol produced," wrote Aditya Sinha. "With less land dedicated to food crops, the overall supply of food grains and other essential crops decreases." So, should cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) be banned in India? "Over 51% of electric vehicle owners in India want to return to ICE vehicles." Lack of easily accessible charging stations is causing charging anxiety in 88% of e-car owners, 73% are unhappy with maintenance costs and 33% find the resale value to be too low. ET. Not surprising. E-cars run on batteries and the cost of the battery is about half that of the car. The biggest problem is that Indian companies hide the price of batteries to deceive customers. For example, "the battery of new Nexon EV should cost from Rs 333,000-Rs 443,000. However, Tata has not revealed the cost of its battery. As per reports, the price of Nexon EV's battery is as high as Rs 700,000." ET. Why should a person with even 10 g of brain buy a second-hand battery? The average weight of a man's brain is about 1300-1400 g and that of a woman is about 1200 g. wikipedia. Yet, Indian companies think that they can fool customers at will. Not just that. "British government officials describe the Tata group's decision to build an electric-car battery factory in the UK as a 'major vote of confidence' for the country's auto industry, saying it will create thousands of jobs and help drive economic growth," wrote Matthew Brooker. Charging a battery needs electricity and, "In the Indian case, in 2010-11, 65% of our power generation capacity depended on fossil fuels. In 2020-21, this was down to 61.4%. Further, in 2010-11, the country's generation capacity that depended on coal stood at 54%. It was down to 53% in 2020-21," wrote Vivek Kaul. "At 24 per 1,000 people, India's car penetration ratio, which compares poorly with the world average of 314, in 2022, is the lowest among the top 13 markets." ET. "Biomass burning is the leading cause of PM2.5 emissions in India, with residential fuel and burning of agricultural residue accounting for over half of these emissions." wrote Chandra Bhushan. These people constitute the vote-bank, so politicians target cars to show that they are doing something. "In December 2022, Toyota Motor Corp's President Akio Toyoda caused a stir" when he "argued that a sound strategy should include hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles." pressreader. But, "India's current GST rate on battery run EVs is only 5%, versus 28% on hybrids and ICE vehicles." Fortunately, most people in India are too poor to buy an EV. So they are safe from the fraud. Owners of EVs are regretting. 

Stimulate what?

"A top Indian government adviser's suggestion that policymakers cut out volatile food prices while targeting inflation met with skepticism from many economists, who say it's inappropriate to ignore the costs of everyday items that consumers can't do without. The prescription for inflation-minus-food found mention in the government's pre-budget Economic Survey published last week." ET. This view was echoed by two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its June meeting. They also argued for a change in the policy stance from accommodation to neutral. BS. In the end, the MPC kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.5%. Mint. Just as well, because the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for June jumped to 5.08% from 4.80% in May. pib.gov.in. Food price inflation was 9.36%. In the June meeting the RBI increased its growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7% but kept its inflation forecast at 4.5%. ET. If the economy is to grow at 7.2%, the fastest in the world, and if the RBI is projecting inflation at more than its mandate of 4% (ET), why do members of the MPC want to reduce the policy rate? Because, lower borrowing costs will help businesses to invest in new projects, thus creating more jobs, which will increase demand and further stimulate growth. Since food prices are dependent on supplies they can be safely ignored. But food is transported by trucks and trucks run on diesel. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price and diesel tax is 50% of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. In addition taxes on retail fuel, two years back, the central government increased the special additional excise duty, also known as the Windfall Profit Tax (WPT) on crude oil imports. That is because over 40% of our crude oil is now cheaper import from Russia. In 2022-23, the government raked in Rs 1.47 trillion and is expected to gain Rs 1.52 trillion this fiscal, wrote Venkatesh Nayak. Estimates of the neutral rate of interest have climbed after the pandemic, wrote Herendra Kumar Behera. Neutral rate is the 'real interest rate' after accounting for inflation and has gone up to 1.4-1.9%. ET. With the policy rate at 6.5% and the CPI inflation rate at 5.08%, the real interest rate works out to 1.42% which is at the lower end of the neutral rate range. The Economic Survey warned that retail investors are investing in the stock market rather than in fixed deposits in banks because, even though returns on fixed deposits in banks have increased by 2.44% from May 2022 to May 2024, it is not enough for investors. ET. This is resulting in valuations of shares rising to unsustainable levels while banks are having to borrow. "Banks borrowed a record Rs 1.19 trillion from the market to fund demand for loans" while they could mobilise only Rs 1.02 trillion from deposits in early July. ET. If the market tanks retail investors may be forced into distress sales, making huge losses and may not be able to repay their loans. Reducing borrowing costs may further inflate markets. And this inflation could burst suddenly. Perhaps, the MPC should look at human behavior. Not just to the GDP.   

Stories for believers.

Capital gains taxes were increased in this year's Budget. Long-term capital gains (LTCG) on real estate will not be indexed against inflation but the rate has been reduced from 20% to 12.5%. On shares, short term capital gains jumped from 15% to 20% while LTCG increased from 10% to 12.5%. Securities transaction tax (STT) on options and futures trading were also bumped up. ET. "And as Finance Secretary Somanathan explains, analysis of the tax base shows that capital gains tax doesn't really impact the middle class. 88% of capital gains income is earned by individuals with an income above Rs 1.5 million and 62% with an income greater than Rs 10 million." ET. Who can dare to argue with the exalted Finance Secretary? The problem is that, according to the census of 2011 (the 2021 census was abandoned due to Covid), 86.6% of households own their own homes, with the highest rate of 96.8% in Bihar and the lowest rate of 64.5% in Sikkim. wikipedia. Are all these households earning in excess of Rs 1.5 million a year? When children inherit parental property they often sell it and divide the proceeds and so this will be an enormous inheritance tax. The reason capital gains have gone up is because prices have increased due to high inflation in India, running at an average of about 6.5% since 2000. macrotrends. Also, "The data shows that 74 million people filed income tax returns in 2022-23, of which 51.6 million people, or 70%, had zero tax liability. This means that just 22.4 million people paid income tax in India in 2022-23, which works out to about 1.6% of the total population in India. The Print. The rulers are convinced that a large number of Indians are hiding their income and they terrorise us with excessive demands (ET), perhaps hoping that people will pay just to get some peace in their lives. If a vast number of Indians are hiding enormous incomes why are the same rulers distributing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting from 1 January 2024? pib.gov.in. Another canard tossed around is that Indians earning over Rs 50 million pay 39% in income tax, while in Canada they pay an average of 50.5%, and in Australia, France and Germany the top rate is 45%. moneycontrol.com. They conveniently forget that everyone in those countries get pensions, healthcare and other social services while taxpayers in India are rewarded with threats and harassment. MPs get perks worth tens of millions in addition to their salaries, as well as lifetime pensions. ET. The gold-plated salaries, perks and pensions of IAS officers (Byjus) would make civil servants in Western countries burn with envy. On top of that they get Dearness Allowance at 50% of salary and 13 other allowances at 25% of their salary. ET. As an example, then Prince Charles received a free bus pass in London on his 65th birthday. royalcentral.co. It may have been a joke but serves as a vivid example of how social benefits are available to everyone. Not just to the rulers, as in India. The government is being run by 'Bael Buddhi'. Stories are for believers. 

Money and media.

On 21 July, "President Biden announced...that he would not continue his bid for reelection, saying it is in 'the best interest' of the Democratic Party and the country to withdraw from the race, and he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the nominee." CBS. That is what the Republicans had been demanding but now they have to face a much different opponent. Kamala Devi Harris was born in 1964, which makes her 60 years of age. Her father was Donald Harris from Jamaica and her mother was Shyamala Gopalan from Chennai in India. wikipedia. As a mixture of black and brown she is one shade darker than Barack Obama whose mother Ann Dunham was white. wikipedia. Former President Donald Trump still maintains a slim lead in the opinion polls but it is only 1-3%. politico.com. A study of media bias shows that most of the major news channels are left of the midline. While BBC, AP and ABC are just a shade to the left, NBC, CNN, Vox and Washington Post are further to the left and Fox is to the right. guides.library.harvard.edu. Harris, therefore, starts with an enormous advantage, similar to the advantage enjoyed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi from our 'Godi Media'. wikipedia. At around 11 minutes after 6 pm on 13 July, in Butler Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was shot and injured in his right ear. "As Secret Service agents tried to hustle him into his waiting SUV, Trump defiantly raised his fist several times and seemed to say, 'Fight'." Among the 3 other victims was "50-year-old Corey Comperatore - a firefighter, father and a big fan of Donald Trump. He was shot in the head and killed." CBS. So polarized are Americans that a poll conducted by Morning Consult found that "one-third of Joe Biden's supporters believe the attack may have been staged and was never intended to kill the former president, amounting to just over 33%." TOI. With just two parties in the US, it is not surprising that, of the 14 presidents in the US since 1950, seven were Democrats and seven Republicans. Britannica. What is surprising is that states with the biggest economies - California, Illinois, Massachusettes, New York and Washington - possibly with the largest number of rich people voted  for Joe Biden in 2020. archives.gov. "if you brought back either of the Roosevelts - Teddy or Franklin - from the grave, the most astonishing thing they would find is that the 'malefactors of great wealth' have become the benefactors of today's liberalism, and Democrats have become a party of the rich." "Most of today's rich love Barack Obama so much that Washington D.C. area airports ran out of space to handle all of the private jets flying in the well-heeled for both of his inaugurals." Forbes in 2014. Harris has most of the states with the most electoral college votes (archive.gov), most of the billionaires and most of the media in her pocket. Harris already has $200 million. TOI. Trump needs a big zinger (dictionary). 

Failed the test.

"The Supreme Court on Monday (22 July) gave bail to former Union Minister Ajay Mishra's son Ashish Mishra in the case related to the 2021 Lakhimpur Kheri violence that claimed eight lives, and restricted his movement to Delhi or Lucknow." ET. However, bail was denied to Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia, who has been in prison for over one year (BBC) without any evidence against him, apparently because "an accused may be granted bail if it is established that he is not a flight risk, will not influence witnesses and will not tamper with evidence." HT. So, a man who may have been responsible for extreme violence is not deemed to be capable of tampering with evidence or threatening witnesses and their families but a man who is charged with an unproven financial fraud is thought to be a risk. Since almost all the data is digitally stored they should have got everything by now. If not, they are just obeying orders. "Modi has used one or other of the government's law agencies to terrorise his political opponents. Today, Modi is venting his rage rage upon the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and most viciously upon its founder, Arvind Kejriwal. The Wire. Sisodia is also from AAP. In the recent elections to the Lok Sabha, held from 19 April to 1 June, Mr Modi's party, the BJP secured 240 seats, 32 seats short of a majority. wikipedia. Ashish Mishra may have secured bail but his father Union Minister Ajay Kumar Mishra Teni, of the BJP, lost his seat from Lakhimpur by 33,323 votes. HT. No bail from the people. "On the surface, his (Modi's) Bharatiya Janata Party's dependence on coalition partners hasn't led to much power-sharing." "The same Speaker of Parliament who suspended an unprecedented 100 Opposition lawmakers last December, allowing the government to change the criminal code without debate, has returned to the job." "Dim the projector lights, however, and a larger-than-life Modi starts to look ordinary," wrote Andy Mukherjee. On 3 July, Mr Modi called Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi a 'balak buddhi' (childish mind) "accusing him of associating Hindus with violence and spreading falsehoods in the Lok Sabha. India Today. In response, "The Congress flooded the social media with a barrage of posts and memes labeling PM Modi as 'bael buddhi', a term loosely translated to bull-headed. In a series of pointed messages, they mockingly defined 'bael buddhi' as someone prone to nonsensical rhetoric." TN. "It's not an original insight, but a useful one, that the BJP's spectacular growth has changed its character." "It's still cadre-based, but the disciplinary regime has loosened, while the drive for power at whatever cost and indiscriminate poaching has diluted its ideology." "The BJP is not a party with a difference," wrote Suhit K Sen. You need to be in office to serve the nation but power at any cost weakens the nation and hurts the people. This contradiction is a test for any leader. Mr Modi has failed the test. Very badly.    

Passport status.

"The Henley Passport Index has released its 2024 ranking of the most powerful passports in the world, placing India at 82nd globally. This ranking allows Indian passport holders to travel to 58 countries without the need for a visa." "In 2014, India held the 76th position, granting access to 52 countries." BT. "There are 195 countries in the world. The total comprises 193 countries that are member states of the United Nations and 2 countries that are non-member observer states: the Holy Sea and the state of Palestine." Worldometer. Why is India in such a lowly position when, "India's economy is estimated to have grown by 8.2% in 2023-24, led by a solid expansion in manufacturing and construction sectors, and a strong push from Jan-March quarter growth." TOI. Also, India is now the world's fifth largest economy, above the UK and France  (Forbes), and yet the UK passport is ranked 4th with visa-free travel to 191 destinations (visaindex.com). The French passport is ranked 3rd with visa-free travel to 192 countries. So, why the bias against India? Because, poverty is so extensive that the government announced free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting on 1 January 2024. pib.gov.in. While only 3.2% of Indians were counted as unemployed in 2022-23, only 24% of women and 74% of men over the age of 15 years were either working or seeking employment. In Jan-Mar 2024, 4.3% of employed men and 12.6% of employed women were working as unpaid helpers and counted as employed. ET. No other country in the world counts unpaid work as employment. This has resulted in a large number of Indians seeking work abroad, even under slave-like conditions. In recent months 45 Indians have been burnt to death in Kuwait as they were locked in, two were killed fighting for the Russian Army in Ukraine and a farm laborer, Satnam Singh, who severed one arm in an accident, was left to die by the roadside by his employer in Italy. TNIE. "The reality of Indian joblessness, which has set in motion the huge numbers migrating illegally, is set to collide with the hyped narrative of India as the next economic superpower." There are at least 725,000 Indians living illegally in the US alone. scroll.in. Problems start with birth. While 94% of children are enrolled in primary education, 86% are in lower secondary education and only 51% complete secondary level. TOI. Being enrolled in school does not mean students are learning anything. "A top official of the FPSB India (Financial Planning Standards Board)...said India is facing the issue of unemployability in the financial services sector because there were no takers of nearly 1.8 million jobs last year." ET. Most alarming for foreigners, "Yet another bridge collapsed in Bihar...the 15th in the state within one month." "The bridge was constructed by the rural works department in 2008-09 and last renovated in 2020-21." TOI. Not surprising that Indians are not wanted. India may become the third largest economy with a GDP of $5 trillion by 2027 (Mint). Our rulers will be welcome abroad for trade. They may think they are great. But the Indian passport is the real status.

A grotesque misalliance.

"China's central bank on Thursday (25 July) unexpectedly cut a medium-term interest rate by the most in more than four years, marking the latest move by authorities to boost economic growth." "In a surprise move .., the People's Bank of China slashed the rate for its medium-term lending facility (MLF) - the interest for one-year loans to financial institutions - to 2.3% from 2.5%." The PBoC cut two benchmark interest rates on Monday. ET. "The PBoC issued 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) in one-year loans under its MLF at 2.30%, down 20 basis points from its previous MLF loan," and "The central bank also injected 235.1 billion yuan into markets through seven-day reverse repos at 1.70%." Reuters. This was done to improve month-end liquidity in banks. Why is the world's second largest economy resorting to 'jugaad' (wikipedia)? Because, "China's sputtering economy has prompted a dire, new shorthand online for pessimism about the prospects for any turnaround for jobs, income and opportunity: 'the garbage time of history'." "It was given a more recent boost when state media and commentators lined up to denounce the phrase." "It follows another buzzword China's censors have targeted...: 'lying flat', a call to a slacker life of limited ambition and quiet protest." Reuters. However, life may not remain quiet or peaceful for the Chinese. "Releasing a document during the third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his countrymen to be prepared for 'black swan' and 'grey rhino' risks, reports Xinhua." 'Black swan' meant "an unexpected event with significant consequences, while a 'grey rhino' is a foreseeable risk often overlooked." ET. This could be a warning to the Chinese and to the world. "A telling similarity has been noticed between what Germany was doing before it invaded Poland in September 1939 and what China is doing now - stockpiling resources and raw materials. In the eastern Chinese port of Dongying, the start of 2024 has often seen several tankers docked simultaneously discharging Russian crude oil into a new 31.5 million barrels storage facility completed last year." China's stockpile "reportedly includes aluminium, antimony, cadmium, copper, gallium, germanium, indium, molybdenum, rare earth elements, tantalum, tin, tungsten, zinc, and zirconium." All of China's neighbors are in danger. "Amid escalating tension between China and its breakaway province of Taiwan, the danger of invasion is increasing." ET. "In the last few months, the Philippines and the waters around it have witnessed continuous Chinese aggression. Beijing claims almost all the waters." DH. "Now more than ever, Manila and the international community need to call Beijing's 'grey zone' activities in the contested waters what they are: Illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive." "The moniker, known as ICAD, was first coined by a Filipino general," wrote Karishma Vaswani. China is a grotesque misalliance of a capitalist economy controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CPC). The stresses must be unmanageable. Will it implode by itself or take the world with it? Sadly, India has a long border with this perverse nation. Unlucky.

Panacea or snake oil?

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman believes that most people will benefit from increase in capital gains tax. "Firstly, unlisted companies stand to hugely gain from this 20% with indexation because their returns every year is generally more than 13%-14%-5%." "What people are looking at is that indexation has been removed, not at the reduction in the tax rate from 20% to 12.5%," she said. Up till now the purchase price of a property was inflated by multiplying it with the difference in the inflation indices on the dates of sale and purchase, as announced by the Income Tax Department. Capital gains tax at 20% was then paid on the revised price. Now people cannot adjust the sale price against inflation from the date of purchase of property but the rate has been reduced to 12.5%. "In almost every case people have a lower tax burden under this system," she said. Perhaps, she could enlighten us with some real examples. Actually this is a sly way to impose an inheritance tax. "Inheritance tax, also referred to as the estate duty or death tax, is levied on the estate of a deceased person. It is collected from the estate prior to estate distribution under a will or intestate succession laws." cleartax.in. In India, "the inheritance tax or Estate Tax was abolished with effect from 1985." Since heirs have not spent anything on the purchase of ancestral property they stood to gain significantly from inflation indexation. Now they will pay a much higher amount. Long term capital gains (LTCG) on shares has been increased from 10 to 12.5% and short term capital gains (STCG) from 15% to 20%. cleartax.in. This is apparently to increase long term investment in the market. The Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on futures has been increased from 0.0125% to 0.02% and on options from 0.0625% to 0.1%. ET. This has been done to reduce speculation and help the youth. As per the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE), the informal sector  is the biggest employer in the economy. "The informal sector's contribution to GDP (excluding construction and the public sector) was 9% in 2023-24, down from 14% in 2015-16, even as it employed a greater share of the workforce." Productivity growth in the informal sector has been flat since 2015-16. "What these numbers reveal is an increasing distance between those 20-25% of workers that are employed in 'modern' organized manufacturing or services sector, and the rest of the economy. This has serious implication for overall economic inequality." pressreader. Household savings are moving from banks to mutual funds which is causing a liquidity crunch in banks, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. The increases in capital gains tax rates for all forms of investments, including equities and real estate, will encourage people to invest their savings in term deposits in banks, bankers hope. ET. Savers will lose because interest paid on term deposits may be below the rate of retail inflation and will be taxed as regular income. So, helping the informal sector, no inheritance tax, reduction of speculation, lack of liquidity in banks, whatever the problem there is one solution. Just increase taxes. A panacea or snake oil (wikipedia)? How else would they enjoy?

The pampered and the rest.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Budget 2024 in Parliament yesterday and "laid out nine priority areas with an eye on the future. Additionally, the document stressed on the need to focus on the garib (poor), mahilaye (women), yuva (youth) and annadata (farmers)." ET. The Standard Deduction, which is available only to salaried employees, has been increased and the levels of income, at which higher tax rates kick in, have also been increased. cleartax.in. This will mainly help the pampered central government employees whose Dearness Allowance has been hiked to 50% and 13 other allowances have risen to 25%. ET. The consequence is an enormous tragedy of wasted money, time and precious years of young lives in a futile and frustrating effort to get into 'the gravy train' (vocabulary.com). "Sunil Kumar, a 30-year-old has spent the last 9 years of his life chasing a job in the Indian government." Along with scores of others, Kumar "has spent years cramming for a variety of tests, including the prestigious civil services exam needed to get a job as a federal government bureaucrat. He has also tried for a provincial civil services post and two other tests for lower level government positions." "According to government figures, 220 million people applied for federal jobs between 2014-2022, of whom 722,000 were selected." Reuters. Long term capital gains (LTCG) will rise from 10% to 12.5% and short term capital gains (STCG) will rise to 20% from 15% with immediate effect. From 1 October, the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on options will rise from 0.062% to 0.10% and on futures will rise from 0.0125% to 0.02%. BS. This is, apparently, being done to curb speculative trading, mainly by young people, as chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Madhabi Puri Buch "expressed concern that household savings are now going into speculative bets and added that the youth of the country is losing "tonnes of money' in these trades." ET. The youth of the country are just trying to recover the "tonnes of money" they wasted in gambling on tests for government jobs. Higher taxes on capital gains will apply to mutual funds as well but fund managers feel that the changes are negative only for short term investors and will push more people towards long-term investments. Reuters. Why that should be so when the LTCG tax has also been increased by 2.5% is a mystery. Mutual funds launch more new schemes when markets are already very high. In 2007-08, mutual funds launched 55 new schemes, collecting Rs 430.28 billion, when the BSE Sensex rose by 60% between March 2007 and January 2008. Investors lost money when markets crashed in 2008. "In June 2024, AMCs (asset management companies) launched 11 new schemes, raising Rs 143.70 billion," wrote Vivek Kaul. Will history repeat itself? Most likely. People are losers. Politicians and civil servants on the other hand....

Markets like short sellers.

"Foreign investments in Indian government bonds have climbed more than $1 billion in the two weeks since domestic sovereign debt was included in a JP Morgan index, adding to the $11 billion yield-influencing inflows since the inclusion was announced in September 2023." As a result, "So far in 2024, yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond has fallen 22 basis points to 6.96%." ET. In addition to being included in JP Morgan Chase & Co's index of emerging market bonds on 28 June 2024 (ET), "starting from 31 January 2025, the appropriate Indian government paper will also be added to Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index." What if there is a sell-out? "India's economy is too large, officials think, and these purchases too small to cause a major crisis if they were too reverse." Still, "As former UK Prime Minister Liz Trust's disastrous 2024 budget showed," "The price India's government will pay for lower borrowing costs is being accountable to a new set of critics: bond markets," wrote Mihir Sharma. Foreigners won't care that, "The Madras High Court has expressed displeasure over the manner in which the CBI conducted the investigation into the 2018 Tuticorin police firing against anti-Sterlite protesters in which 13 persons were killed. Observing that the investigation was not done in a fair manner, the court further observed that 'we believe that the police firing was a predetermined act carried out at the behest of an industrialist'." ET. If the brutal Indian government blows away 13, or 130, or 1,300 Indian citizens, foreigners won't care a jot. However, they will care very much if they stand to lose 13 cents, let alone 13 dollars, and will want to know why. Foreigners will want to know the amount of subsidy on second-class AC seats since 2014 as "these fares haven't been adjusted for rising fuel costs." "Transparency often spells trouble for an administration. Questions begin to be asked, accountability goes up, narratives can't easily be divorced from ground reality. Governments don't like answering uncomfortable questions and display an inherent weakness for opacity," wrote Puja Mehra. For instance, "While we know how much crude oil is imported every month and what it costs us per barrel/tonne, sadly the government's response to queries about the WPT (Windfall Profit Tax) it collects from our oil companies is a long expected lines - delay, dodge and delude," wrote Venkatesh Nayak. In 2022-23, it was Rs 1.47 trillion and expected to rise to Rs 1.52 trillion in this fiscal. Indian businesses follow government cues. In 2019, "India lost a staggering USD 13 billion, over Rs 900 billion, to trade misinvoicing, equivalent to 5.5% of the country's revenue collections in 2016, according to a report by a US-based think tank Global Financial Integrity." ET. Which means, "Indian companies with global operations need to have crisis management plans in place given the rise in the number of short sellers, said William J Stellmach. Similarly, bond markets can short sell the government. The solution is simple. Don't cheat the people, don't hide facts and don't tell lies. But, it's habit. Instinctive.     

Gambling or slavery.

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch...said the surge in futures and options trading volume has become a macro issue, according to a report." Mint. Because household savings are going into speculative trading rather than into capital formation. 'Capital formation' is the net accumulation of capital goods, such as equipment, tools, transportation assets, and electricity, during an accounting period for a particular country. Generally, the higher the capital formation of an economy, the faster the economy can grow its aggregate income. Investopedia. So, if people buy shares of a company, that money can be used for new investment or, if they buy fridges, cars or TVs, the increased sales lead to higher production and more jobs. Those scared of gambling are investing in the comparative safety of mutual funds. "Households are increasingly choosing capital markets over traditional banks for their savings, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said." "Governor Das indicated that banks must explore new methods to manage the gap between credit and deposits." While Indian banks have been struggling to attract deposits, customers have been borrowing heavily to buy homes and for other purposes. The credit-deposit ratio in the banking system is at its highest in at least 20 years." Mint. "Speaking at an SBI Mutual Fund event, Ms Buch expressed a concern that household savings are now going into speculative bets and added that the youth of the country is losing 'tonnes of money' in these (F&O) trades." ET. Why are people taking such risks? Because the RBI held its interest rate at 4% from 22 May 2020 to 4 May 2022 (Forbes) while the consumer price index (CPI) inflation was running at over 6%, reaching highs of 7.6% in October 2020 and 7.8% in April 2022 (RI). Even the inadequate increase of 40 basis points on 4 May 2022 was a panic reaction to the expected hike in US interest rates at the US Federal Reserve meeting on 5 May 2022 when it increased the Funds Rate by 50 basis points (Forbes). This means that the real interest rate, which is the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation (Investopedia) was severely negative. So, why allow prices to increase unchecked which hurts poor people? Because, high inflation increases tax collections as wages rise to compensate. Also, higher prices mean the value of the currency depreciates, thus reducing the value of debt. Since the government is the biggest borrower it is the biggest gainer from high inflation. Economics Help. A negative real interest rate hurts savers because the value of their capital is falling but is a bonanza for borrowers. Economics Help. Thus, the RBI was actively transferring savings of savers such as pensioners to the government. The RBI has found that 47 million new jobs were created in 2023-24. TOI. That would mean low real interest rates encouraged companies to increase investment from higher borrowing. 14 Indians rescused from cyber-slavery in Cambodia (NDTV), dozens of Indians rescued from farm slavery in Italy (BBC) and 20 Indians rescued from slave labor in Myanmar (TOI) in recent weeks. Who knows how many Indians are working as slaves all over the world. If our regulators justified their humongous salaries and served their country, Indians would not be reduced to gambling or slavery. Instead, they lecture us.

Puppet master and instigator.

On 18 July, an average of opinion polls in the US, gives a tiny 2% advantage to former President Donald Trump. 270towin.com. "If Joe Biden loses November's election, history will record that it took just 10 minutes to destroy a presidency." "It was clear a political disaster was about to unfold as the 81-year-old commander in chief stiffly shuffled on stage in Atlanta," so that, "Minutes into the showdown, hosted by CNN, a full-blown Democratic panic was underway at the idea of heading into the election with such a diminished figure at the top of the ticket." "Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll." AP. If 66% of Democrats want Biden to stand down, why is Trump's lead only 2%? Because of about 10 states out of 50, which are dumps of hardcore left-wing fanatics. "Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the future of his 2024 campaign." But, "Neither is quite sure what to do." CNN. "I'm running and we're going to win," Biden told a rally. "I'm the nominee. I'm not going anywhere." Reuters. While all this is going on Biden has contracted Covid-19. "Sick with Covid and abandoned by allies, President Biden has been fuming at his Delaware beach house," and "He considers Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House Speaker, the main instigator, but is irritated at Mr Obama as well, seeing him as a puppet master behind the scenes." NYT. During the Covid pandemic in 2020, Biden ran his campaign from the basement of his house in Wilmington, Delaware, (AP) probably sure that his team would engineer his victory anyhow. "For the bosses of the Democrat family, ending Biden's political career is a three-step process. First they ask him to leave, then they tell him to leave, and finally they threaten to destroy him if he won't wise up." "Perhaps the tape of his interview with special counsel Robert Hur will be released." There could be something on his son Hunter. "Finally, there is the 25th amendment, the ultimate play, in which Democrats could remove Biden from his office, his legacy in tatters." However, "Biden could also flip and turn state's evidence, spilling tea on the Democrat's family secrets, essentially burning down the party trying to throw him under the bus." Fox. In April 2023, Reuters predicted, "It won't be a campaign from the basement this time." "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." Abraham Lincoln. He was a Republican. Democrats have 10 states permanently in the bag. They will try to fool the rest.       

Tomorrow, or never?

"The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in India rose 5.9% in May on an annual basis as against 5% in April, revealed the data provided by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." The growth rate of "Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity in May 2024 stood at 6.6%, 4.6% and 13.7% year-on-year respectively." The increase in electricity production may be explained by the severe heat wave in India in May, with the temperature in Churu in Rajasthan recorded at 50.5 degree celsius. wikipedia. "Riding on the growth of the manufacturing sector, job roles like computer numerical control operators (CNC), production supervisors and machine operators are seeing an exponential demand, according to Indeed, a global hiring and matching platform. Between June 2022 and June 2024, the jobs in the manufacturing industry in India grew by 40%." ET. "India is likely to speed up processing visas for Chinese technicians, three government officials said, as it looks to overcome delays at manufacturing units that have hindered investments worth billions of dollars," and "led to production losses of $15 billion for the electronics manufacturing sector in the last four years." Reuters. "The epic bust-up between China and India could be ending," reported the Economist. As "India realises its ailing manufacturing sector, which is behind a lack of quality jobs and the BJP's recent electoral setback, requires Chinese technology, investment and expertise." The Print. Why do we need the Chinese when, "India's youth continue to grapple with soaring unemployment rates, with nearly 83% of the jobless population belonging to this demographic," and "the proportion of educated young people, possessing at least secondary education, among the total unemployed youth has nearly doubled from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022?" Mint. Possibly because, "Only 57.44% of B.E. and B.Tech. graduates in India are employable in the automotive industry, according to a study by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)." "Indian automotive industry will need up to 200,000 skilled people by 2030 to meet the government's vision of 30% electric vehicle adoption." ET. On the other hand, "India's largest listed companies were able to generate steady cash flows from their operations in 2023-24, with the aggregate figure for a sample of 416 BSE 500 firms surging 26.4% and crossing Rs 10 trillion," but "While cash is flowing in, the investment spigot is still shut tight." Mint. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India fell to a five-year low of $44.4 billion in 2023-24 from $59.6 billion on 2020-21. "The fact that FDI inflows shrank, even as global businesses were trying to adopt a China-plus-one strategy and reduce their dependence on the People's Republic, suggests that India is not yet seen as the definitive alternative to it as the world's factory." Pressreader. So, India's manufacturing is growing but investment is not, there are lots of jobs but youth unemployment is very high, and there are lots of graduates but they cannot be employed. It's definitely not jam today. Will there be jam tomorrow (wikipedia)? Or, never?

The signs are there.

"The United States has raised concerns about the recent arrests of Venezuelan democratic opposition figures ahead of the country's elections this month, as authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro told his supporters he must win at the polls to avoid a possible 'bloodbath'." "Maduro's remarks come as his government attempts to cling on to power for another six years while facing a credible challenge from opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia." CNN. Hugo Chavez was the president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013 and Nicolas Maduro has been since then. "Their socialist PSUV party has over the past two decades gained control of key institutions, including much of the judiciary, the electoral council and the Supreme Court." BBC. "In 2020, the US Justice Department charged Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and high-ranking officials of his regime for leading the Cartel of the Suns to traffic cocaine to the United States." "The Venezuelan Army facilitates drug trafficking on land,sea, and air by allowing the passage and protection of shipments, manipulating radars for illegal flights, receiving payments to avoid searches, and authorizing the departure of shipments from facilities guarded by military and government agents, Grey Dynamics indicated." Dialogo Americas. These people are heavily armed and will fight if a new government tries to bring them to justice. So, Maduro is saying that people will be safe only if he is reelected and criminals are allowed to continue. "Dictators are not evil by definition," but "might harbor fantasies of unlimited power, beauty, glory, honor and domination, paired with a lack of empathy." Dictators depend on a set of cronies and if "he wants to remain at the top of the heap doesn't work on behalf of the larger population, but for the benefit of the handful of people he - historically, it always is a he - depends on for maintaining control." BBC. "When my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God has sent me." "That's why, whenever I do anything, I believe God is guiding me," said Mr Modi. The Wire. "Lord Jagannath is bhakt (devotee) of Modi," claimed BJP member Sambit Patra. TOI. Of course, when you are 'divine' and worshiped by a coterie of sycophants you can do no wrong. Like imposing a total lockdown on the whole nation when there were only 469 active cases of Covid-19 and just 10 deaths. CNBC. This caused, "All along the 800 km, Pune-to Bhopal stretch of the Mumbai-Agra NH, thousands of migrant workers, children in arms, stumbling along, are stretched out in unending lines." "Exhausted people sleep by the roadside. Children cry in hunger. Mothers cast anguished glances at vehicles that won't stop." TOI. Meanwhile, Mr Modi is always resplendent in an unending supply of costumes. Getty Images. The signs are there but, fortunately, India is too diverse. Still, we can't be complacent.      

A natural Ponzi scheme.

"Foreign investments in Indian government bonds have climbed more than $1 billion in the two weeks since domestic sovereign debt was included in a JP Morgan index, adding to the $11 billion yield-influencing inflows since the inclusion was announced in September 2023." Since the number of bonds available for sale is finite, increased buying leads to a rise in prices and a fall in yields. That lowers the borrowing costs for the government. Yields closed at 6.966% on the benchmark 10-year India government bonds on 16 July, still flirting with the 7% mark. Investing.com. In June, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the eighth successive time. Mint. "Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of a country (RBI in India's case) lends money to commercial banks in the event of any shortfall of funds." ET. It is surprising that yields on sovereign bonds are higher than that of commercial banks when the chances of default should be non-existent on government bonds. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries closed at 4.173% yesterday (CNBC), when "The US Federal Reserve (US Fed), on 12 June, maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% for the seventh straight meeting (BS). In addition to dollar inflows into G-Secs, "According to the data with the depositories, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have made a net inflow of Rs 153.52 billion in equities this month (till July 12). This came following an inflow of Rs 265.65 billion in equities in June." BS. With so much foreign money coming into Indian markets, the rupee should have hardened against the dollar, but it has not budged. One dollar buys Rs 83.58 this morning. xe.com. Both the stock markets in India are trading at record highs, with the Nifty 50 index closing 26 points higher at 24,613 and the BSE Sensex gaining 51 points to close at 80,716 yesterday. Mint. Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Schiller calls this a "naturally occurring" Ponzi scheme, in which there is no fraud but "Investors, their confidence and expectations buoyed by past price increases, bid up speculative prices further, there by enticing more investors to do the same, so that the cycle repeats again and again." Wrote Vivek Kaul. "Basically, the sharp rise in Indian stock prices is currently the strongest attraction for new retail investors." "Promoters are the ultimate insiders," and "in the first six months of 2024, promoters or owners of businesses have sold stocks worth Rs 620 billion" because "they feel that their share prices are overvalued and that they don't expect the future earnings of their companies to rise at a pace that justifies the rise in share prices, and so there is money to be taken off the table," wrote Kaul. So 'irrational exuberance' (Investopedia) on the one hand and a shrug of the shoulders on the other. "There's a sucker born every minute," say Americans. wikipedia. In our case, it is in millions.

Nutrition, not opium.

"The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday (yesterday) raised India's growth forecast for 2024-25 to 7% from 6.8% on the back of improving private consumption, particularly in rural India. The IMF left unchanged its estimate for a 6.5% growth in Asia's third largest economy's gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2025-26 financial year, it said in the World Economic Outlook." Reuters. An analysis of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data shows that "56% of the population had three meals a day while 43% had just two. A break-up by location and gender shows that while rural areas do better, there is not much difference between men and women when it comes to the number of meals." HT. "The majority of Indians cannot afford a healthy meal and millions die every year due to diseases that are directly linked to poor diet, a recent survey showed." The report said that "a healthy meal becomes unaffordable if it exceeds 63% of a person's income." Mint. "India has the second highest number of kids who did not receive any vaccine at all in 2023, 1.6 million, just after Nigeria with 2.1 million 'zero dose children', according to Unicef." "The number of completely unvaccinated children (zero dose) is slightly up from last year (by 600,000 from 13.9 million to 14.5 million) and is still 1.7 million higher than in 2019." TOI. That could be a precursor for a lot of mortality, morbidity and expense for poor people in case of a preventable epidemic. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased by 5.08% in June over 4.87% increase last year. Food inflation jumped by 9.36%. ET. Wholesale prices (WPI) rose by 3.4% in June while wholesale prices of food jumped 10.9%. Vegetables rose by 38.8% and pulses by 21.6% in June. TOI. "A survey carried out by LocalCircles, a community social media platform shows that six out of 10 are spending 50% or more every week on vegetables as compared to previous months." ET. We are so proud that India is the world's fifth largest economy with a GDP of $3.942 trillion, above the UK in sixth with $3.502 trillion and France in seventh with $3.132 trillion, but the GDP per capita of UK is $51.07 thousand and that of France is $47.36 thousand compared to our miserable $2.73 thousand. Forbes. "The cumulative impact of the GST roll-out, note-ban along with the pandemic on informal sector has been 4.3% of FY23 GDP or about Rs 11.5 trillion, shows an analysis." TNIE. "Modi has presided over the highest level of unemployment in 45 year," and labor economist Santosh Mehrotra said that "youth unemployment (15-29 years) has doubled to 12% in 2022-23 compared to 2011-12. He reckons the actual figure of youth unemployment is much higher as India treats a very large number of people (about 90 million) as employed when they are actually unpaid workers in family owned enterprises with low productivity. No other country follows this methodology and even the ILO does not treat unpaid family workers as employed," wrote MK Venu. The BJP lost in the temple seat of Ayodhya where Mr Modi had inaugurated the new Ram Temple. Mint. Ten years of drugging people with the opium of religion (Marquette University) while they are dying of diseases due to malnutrition and lack of vaccination. Some Indians at least are refusing to swallow opium. Demanding jobs instead.  

Just a pawn.

"India's relationship with Russia is based on 'mutual trust and mutual respect,' Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Moscow on Tuesday (9 July), where he also said he appreciated President Vladimir Putin's leadership." "His two-day visit coincides with a NATO summit in Washington expected to be dominated by the Ukraine war, although a senior Indian foreign ministry official said there was no significance in the timing." Reuters. Oh yeah? "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized his Indian counterpart's visit to Moscow as a 'huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts,' on the same day that a Russian missile smashed into a children's hospital in Kyiv." As usual, "India on Monday (15 July) raised with the Ukrainian Ambassador to India the remarks made by his President Volodymyr Zelenskyy against PM Modi during his Russia visit." "India-Ukraine ties remain lukewarm over Kyiv's military ties with Pakistan, Kyiv's criticism of 1998 nuclear tests by India and opposition against India's position on Kashmir in the UN." ET. No use fuming against Zelenskyy. He is being used as a pawn by the US, and the EU, to weaken, if not destroy, Russia, with the sacrifice of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives. "US and NATO officials used Ukraine as a strategic pawn against Russia and are now fuming with outrage at Moscow's decision to go to war." "The Ukrainian people, unfortunately, are the ones paying a high price in blood for the gullibility of their country's leaders and the shocking arrogance of US leaders." Cato Institute. As a proof, "Just days after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia and hugged President Vladimir Putin, the United States...warned that relations were still 'not yet deep enough' to be taken for granted and emphasized that 'there is no such thing as strategic autonomy' during a conflict." The Wire. "The West has to understand that now, time has changed. India has become stronger both economically and strategically." "Today, despite America's threats, it is adopting an independent foreign policy, buying oil in large quantities from Russia, and making payment in rupees." " Due to the digitalization of payments, today, India is not afraid of American sanctions like exclusion from SWIFT," wrote Prof Ashwani Mahajan. The professor seems to have forgotten that former PM Jawaharlal Nehru was one of the five heads of government to set up the Non-Aligned Movement. wikipedia. Can't be more independent than that. "By 2022, SWIFT had expanded to more than 11,000 institutional members from more than 200 countries and territories." "Success may be attributed to the platform's security." Investopedia. The United Payments Interface (UPI) is India's app-based payment system. npci.org.in. "In May, UPI recorded 14 billion transactions, up from nine billion the year before. But the popularity and ease of use has made it a rich feeding ground scammers." BBC. Will foreigners trust UPI or SWIFT? After sacrificing Ukraine and billions of dollars, the US and Europe cannot afford to lose this war. Zelenskyy is just a pawn. No use abusing him.

Rise of 50% and 25%.

"India's net direct tax collection recorded a significant growth of 19.54% in FY25, amounting to Rs 5.74 lakh crore (Rs 5.74 trillion) as of July 11, according to the data released by the Income Tax Department." Corporate tax collections grew by 20.44%, personal income tax was up 22.76% and securities tax collection doubled. ET. Is this a sign of high earnings because of a booming economy or a result of 'tax terrorism'? In 2023, Manipal Group Chairperson Mohandas Pai said that "6,500 high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) will leave India in 2023, calling the trend 'very worrisome' and attributing it to 'tax tarrorism'." On the other hand, "Central government employees have been granted a 4% raise in their Dearness Allowance (DA), bringing it up to 50%." This means that 13 other allowances, which these pampered Indians are showered with, will also rise. "When the Dearness Allowance (DA) payable on the revised pay structure goes up by 50%, other allowance rates will increase by 25%." ET. 'Dearness Allowance' is "a bonus or pay increase to meet a rise in the cost of living." Merriam Webster. While our rulers were assured of the highest standard of living for Indians, "India's June retail inflation rose to a four-month high of 5.08%, faster than expected, from 4.8% in May, with food inflation flaring to a six-month high of 9.36%, data showed." Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 4.87% in June 2023. ET. High prices lead to higher goods and services collections, and so "Central and state governments collected Rs 1.74 trillion in Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts in June, 7.74% more than the proceeds from the indirect tax a year ago." Mint. Apparently, this indirect tax terrorism is causing resentment in people so, "This July, for the first time since the rollout of GST in July 2017 - excluding the first few lockdown-affected months in 2020 - the Ministry of Finance did not issue an official press release regarding the collections and breakup of revenue under GST." The Print. Not only do soaring food prices directly hurt the poor but taxes on processed agricultural products condemn poor people to inhuman living conditions. For instance, palm oil is used in a range of cosmetic products, like soap, toothpaste and detergents, essential for basic cleanliness and hygiene. Treehugger. Import tax on crude palm oil is 5.5% and on refined palmolein is 13.75%. dfpd.gov.in. On top of this, soap, toothpaste and toiletries attract GST at 18%. cleartax. "High tariffs on input parts and barriers to entry for leading firms in the global value chains has hindered further growth in increasing India's share of smartphone exports with the help of production-linked incentive scheme." ET. No wonder, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported, "India's trade dependence on the EU and China increased 1% and 1.2%, respectively while that on Saudi Arabia fell 0.5% in the (first) quarter." ET. Giving incentives with one hand and snatching it back with taxes on the other is senseless. Terrorizing citizens is immoral. But then, how else can they get 50% more DA? 

Running, but not going anywhere.

Former President Donald Trump was shot in his right ear at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. "According to a White House spokesperson, the suspect and at least one attendee were killed, while two others were injured." The FBI has apparently taken over the investigation. This is the same FBI which, "Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook restricting a story about Joe Biden's son during the 2020 election was based on FBI misinformation warnings. The New York Post alleged leaked emails from Hunter Biden's laptop showed the then vice-president was helping his son's business dealings in Ukraine." BBC. The FBI also influenced Twitter (now known as X). According to a letter from chairman Jim Jordan (R, Ohio) to FBI director Christopher Wray, "Put simply, after the FBI conditioned social media companies to believe that the laptop was the product of a hack-and-dump operation, the Bureau stopped its information sharing, allowing social media companies to conclude that the New York Post story was Russian disinformation." NR. Thus, the FBI actively influenced the election of 2020 in Joe Biden's favor and proved that the Deep State  (wikipedia) is real. At the very least, Joe Biden was guilty of rent seeking (CFI). Now, "A growing number of Democrats are calling on Joe Biden to end his presidential re-election bid and step aside for a younger contender. Concerns over his poor debate performance have spread over the past fortnight among politicians, donors and others within the party." BBC. "US election has taken a very shocking turn with new claims being made that former President Barack Obama is secretly working to ensure Joe Biden drops out of the race to the White House. And this 'resentful treatment' is making Biden dig in further." HT. Enjoying the confusion among the Democrats, "Trump remained uncharacteristically quiet, letting Democrats argue among themselves. Republican strategists claim the relative silence is down to Tromp's new-found discipline - a change from his 2016 and 2020 campaigns." BBC. Biden is determined to stay in the race. At a rally in Detroit he said. "I am running and we are going to win." "I'm the nominee. I'm not going anywhere." Reuters. Going into their August convention, most Democrats are "terrified by nearly every scenario: Going forward with Biden, a Kamala Harris nomination, a nomination of someone else who would in that case have beaten the first black female vice-president,...even just revelations of embarrassing details about people who have never been vetted by a national campaign." CNN. Or it may be that Biden, and Democrats, do not want Trump to investigate the 2020 election. "Two-thirds of Republican voters (and nearly 3 in 10 Americans) continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from him (Trump), and that Biden was not lawfully elected." Conversation. Biden is ratcheting up the pressure on Democrats by refusing to stand down. "President Joe Biden's resistance to pressure to end his reelection bid appears to be a strategy aimed at running out the clock, a play to leave his party so little time to come up with another candidate that his opponents stand down." National Herald. In the NFL, taking a knee to run out the clock is done to preserve a winning lead. sportslingo.com. But, Biden is refusing to bend. Trump got a bullet in his ear. Biden is shooting his own side. Extremely weird.

Political babies.

"Thirty-one out of 36 states and Union Territories in India have achieved the replacement level of fertility rate of 2.1. However, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Jharkhand, Meghalaya, an Manipur continue to have higher than desired fertility rates." About 65% of India's population is within the reproductive age group. ET. "The single most important factor in population growth is the total fertility rate (TFR). If, on average, women give birth to 2.1 children and these children survive to the age of 15, any given woman will have replaced herself and her partner upon death. A TFR of 2.1 is known as the replacement rate." Britannica. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, Gujarat, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh also had a TFR slightly higher than 2.1. wikipedia.  TFR also depends on rates of immigration and emigration, as well as child mortality rates. In 2022, mortality rates for children under the age of 5 years varied from a low 2 per 1,000 live births in Finland, Japan, Norway and Singapore to a high of 117 in Niger, 107 in Nigeria, 106 in Somalia and 103 in Chad. World Bank. Clearly, those with high child mortality rates will need a TFR over 2.1 to keep their population stable. India's under-5 child mortality rate was 29 per 1,000 live births in 2022. However, it is not enough to keep children alive, they need proper nutrition for healthy growth and quality education for economic growth. A study using data from the NHFS 2019-21 found that the prevalence of "zero-food" children in India - that is children who have consumed no food at all in a span of 24 hours - is at 19.3%, the third highest after Guinea's 21.8% and Mali's 20.5%. The Wire. As per the NHFS-5, the rate of malnutrition has come down in India. For children under 5 years of age, stunting has reduced from 38.4% to 35.5%, wasting from 21.0% to 19.3% and underweight from 35.8% to 32.1%. "Malnutrition among women aged 15-49 years has also reduced from 22.9% to 18.7%." pib.gov.in. However, detailed information can come only from a census. wikipedia. Starting in 1881, "For the next 130 years, after independence and through wars and other crises, India kept its date with the census - once a decade, hundreds of thousands of enumerators visited every household in the country to gather information about people's jobs, families, economic conditions, migration status and socio-cultural characteristics, among other parameters." BBC. The 2021 census was postponed because of Covid-19. The next census could result in delimitation, which is redrawing of boundaries of parliamentary constituencies. If such an exercise is carried out, the number of members of parliament from UP will rise from 80 to 143 and those of Bihar would nearly double from 40 to 79. Conversely, "southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu would lose 16 seats". CNBC. It is grossly unfair that UP and Bihar should be rewarded for higher fertility rates. Fertility rates are not just about babies and children. It's about politics. Could get dirty.  

Bank transfers.

"India added nearly 4.7 crore (47 million) jobs in the 2023-24 fiscal year, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report showed,..higher than several other estimates." TOI. This was in response to "India will struggle to create enough jobs for its growing workforce over the next decade even if the economy grows at a rapid pace of 7%, Citigroup Inc. said," as "India will need to create about 12 million jobs a year over the next  decade to absorb the number of new entrants to the labor market." BS. Much, much better, "India has created more than 80 million employment opportunities in the five-year period from 2017-18 to 2021-22, translating to an average of over 20 million jobs or employment per year, the Ministry of Labour and Employment said." ET. Careful, we may run out of people and have to import workers from the US and Europe. On cue, "The recent KLEMS [capital (K), labor (L), energy (E), material (M) and services (S)] data by the RBI and the ASUSE (Annual Survey of Unincorporated Enterprises) employment numbers of the government broadly match, SBI Research said." ET. That is hilarious. The State Bank of India (SBI) is a public sector bank meaning it is owned by the government. wikipedia. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the government of India." RBI. The present Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das used to be a Secretary in the Ministry of Finance before he retired. wikipedia. Every year the RBI transfers profits earned from seigniorage, which is the difference between the face value of currency notes and the cost of printing it (Investopedia), from interest on money it lends to banks and from notional gains on buying and selling foreign exchange (ICICI). Since 2014-15 the RBI has been transferring increasing sums of money to the government, except in 2016-17 because of the ill-conceived demonetisation (wikipedia) and in 2021-22, when at least 4.7 million died of Covid-19 in India, according to the WHO (BBC). In 2017-18, the RBI paid over Rs 1.76 trillion, in 2020-21 it paid over Rs 991 billion and in 2022-23, just after Covid, it paid over Rs 874 billion. IIFL Securities. In 2020-21 the RBI changed its accounting year from July-June to April-March to align it with India's fiscal year. So the RBI paid out Rs 991 billion in just 9 months from July 2020 to 31 March 2021. This year the RBI went ballistic and paid out a humongous Rs 2.11 trillion to the government. News18. In 2018, then Deputy Governor of the RBI Viral Acharya said in his resignation speech that the RBI could face the same consequences as Argentina's central bank when then President Cristina Fernandez forced a transfer of $6 billion from its reserves. BT. Argentina has foreign debts of $400 billion and its central bank's reserves are in the red by $10 billion. Reuters. Meanwhile, desperate young men from India are dying in Ukraine while fighting for the Russian army. The Wire. We can only hope the RBI does not break the bank (dictionary). Literally.