Saved 100 tonnes of gold.

"Chinese companies under investigation by the US government are using shell companies, new names and other legal workarounds to continue doing business in America, according to a recent report." Fox. "As China's big banks withdraw from financing Russia-related transactions, some Chinese companies are turning to small banks on the border and underground financing channels such as money brokers - even banned cryptocurrency - the sources told Reuters." "The US has imposed an array of sanctions on Russia and Russian entities" and "Now the threat of extending these to banks in China - a country Washington blames for 'powering' Moscow's war effort - is chilling the finance that lubricates even non-military trade from China to Russia." CNBC. "India rarely bought Russian oil before 2022 due to high freight costs," but "Russia emerged as India's top oil supplier in 2023. Through term deals and spot market purchases, the South Asian nation imported about 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in 2023 compared to an average 652,000 bpd in 2022." BS. "India in April imported more Russian oil but less from Iraq and Saudi Arabia than it did a month earlier," as "The world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, India raised purchases in April by 13-17% compared to previous months, the data show." Reuters. Given this background, perhaps it is prudent that "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has moved 100 metric tonnes of its gold stored in the UK to domestic vaults in FY24." "As of March 2024, the RBI's gold reserves stand at 822.1 tonnes," of which over 408 tonnes are held at home while 413.79 tonnes are held abroad. "Storing gold internationally comes with risks, particularly during geopolitical tensions. The freezing of Russian assets by Western nations has heightened concerns about the safety of assets held abroad." BT. A good start, but the RBI should move all of our gold to India. That would save a lot of money in fees. But what about foreign currencies and government bonds? As of 12 April the RBI's total Liabilities/Assests amounted to Rs 67.255 trillion, of which foreign currency assets constituted Rs 47.501 trillion. RBI. "As of March 31, 2024, the RBI had invested $240.6 billion in US Treasuries, marking a nearly $20 billion increase between October and March, according to data from the US Department of Treasury." which meant that "with yields rising due to monetary policy tightening - reflecting the higher-for-longer stance of the US Federal Reserve - resulting in substantial interest income for the RBI from foreign assets." rediff.com. "The most notable increase in the central bank's income came from foreign sources, which saw a 71% year-on-year (YoY) rise to Rs 1.03 trillion." This enabled the RBI to pass on an unprecedented Rs 2.1 trillion to the government just before elections. Mint. If sanctions do come, they will not be only on gold, but also on foreign currencies. The RBI may be government property (RBI), but the money is ours. Don't gamble with it.

Market changes are permanent.

"The number of unique investors in Indian equity markets has nearly tripled since 2020 to 90 million." The number of investors in mutual funds "has more than doubled from 21 million as of December 2020 to 45 million as of April 2024." "This shift is being fueled by three interconnected mega trends: An expansion of the middle class, rising incomes within this demographic and the youthful profile of India's population," wrote Dhiraj Relli. Even better, "The notional volume of equity derivative trading in India reached $6 trillion in early February, a six-fold surge since the start of 2022, before easing recently." "The surge has come despite repeated warnings from the country's securities market regulator, whose own studies suggested that 90% of active retail traders lose money trading derivative contracts." ET. To put it in perspective, India's GDP is estimated at around $4.112 trillion in 2024. Forbes. "Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nagesaran has flagged household savings getting invested in futures and options trade, stressing for a rethink on sachetisation of such trades because a different financial literacy is needed. Sachetisation refers to process of making financial products and services available in smaller, more manageable packs." BT.  "India's youth continue to grapple with soaring unemployment rates, with nearly 83% of the jobless population belonging to this demographic, as per India Employment Report 2024 jointly published by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). The report underscores a concerning trend where the proportion of educated young people, possessing at least secondary education, among the total unemployed youth has nearly doubled from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022." Mint. In its annual report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that the Indian economy "expanded at a robust pace in 2023-24 (April 2023 to March 2024 financial year), with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.6% from 7% in the previous year - the third consecutive year of 7% or above growth pace." BS. "However, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2019-20 to 2023-24 was 4.3%, compared with 7.4% in the five-year period ending 2018-19," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Retail investors don't care. Although foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have sold stocks worth Rs 355.27 billion, domestic institutional investors (DII) have invested Rs 417.20 billion, so that both the Nifty and the Sensex have registered record highs during this month. Mint. The markets are pricing in a victory for the BJP. Why do markets love the BJP? Because, from 2018-19 to 2022-23, net sales of the top 5,000 companies went up by 52% while corporate taxes increased by only 36% resulting in profits rising sharply by 187%. Lower corporate tax rates are increasing profits and the share prices, wrote Vivek Kaul. Punters love it. "As favorable government policies are driving growth in many companies, investors have now coined a new category - Modi stocks - to beyond the existing heroes of Dalal Street like Adani, Ambani or Tata." ET. What if Mr Modi loses? Will all this just vanish?

Expensive, but a mirage nonetheless.

"Lauding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that it is under his leadership that the foreign policy of India has given fame to the nation, which has resulted in New Delhi gaining popularity across the globe." TOI. "Due to changes in provincial laws, hundreds of students are facing deportation from Canada. The protesting Indian students have been on a hunger strike for the past four days," and "some students have threatened to go on a dry hunger strike." Mint. It's not as if these students are being bundled off to Yemen or Iran. They are being asked to return to the bosom of their families in India where Mr Modi "introduced the concept of Amrit Kaal or 'The Era of Elixir' to the entire nation on India's 75th Independence Day. Amrit Kaal is the PM's vision 2047 for 'New India', a new dawn for the country which will bring with it the chance to fulfill the nation's aspirations." investindia.gov.in. "The sensitive border state of Manipur completed one year of violence on Friday, May 3," due to which 230 people have died and 60,000 rendered homeless. During this period Mr Modi made "162 official and non-official visits to various other states in the country" as well as 14 official visits abroad. The Wire. No doubt to spread the word about impending Amrit Kaal. But he forgot Manipur. "Confident of an overwhelming BJP victory in the Lok Sabha elections," Mr Modi vowed to attend the G7 meeting in Italy on 13-15 June. TOI. "The government's decision to attend the G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15) and the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland (June 15-16) can only be seen as a cynical act." "The paradox is, while the Indian elite resorts to strident nationalistic rhetoric and jingoistic grandstanding in domestic politics, its psyche longs for a seat the high table of Western democracies. The contradiction is that the elite wants to cherrypick while the US won't settle for anything less than India unequivocally toeing the Western agenda from Ato Z," wrote MK Bhadrakumar. "As India navigates its role in the global intelligence landscape, it faces a myriad of converging and diverging interests with Five Eyes." "Avoiding confrontation between India and the Five Eyes alliance is essential for security, stability, and cooperation in an increasingly complex global environment," wrote Gen MM Naravane. When Mr Jaishankar accuses Canada of giving visas to people linked to organised crime and to terrorism (Mint), perhaps he should not forget that Canada is a member of the G7 (home.treasury.gov) and the Five Eyes group of nations (publicsafety.gc.ca.) and India is not. "A new report called 'Modi Mirage', produced by academics in the US, Netherlands and UK, says Prime Minister Narendra Modi's claim of having dramatically enhanced India's standing in the world is a 'mirage'." TOI. In 9 years, from 2014 to 2023, Mr Modi visited 124 countries in 70 foreign journeys. From May 2014 to November 2019 his foreign visits cost India Rs 359 billion or $43 million. Wion. Foreigners, it seems, are not impressed. 

Forget the past, prevent the future.

"The International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and against humanity over the October 7 attacks in Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza." ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said that "the ICC's prosecution team is also seeking warrants for Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as two other top Hamas leaders - Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades, who is better known as Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas's political leader." CNN. Predictably, "Benjamin Netanyahu responded with fury to the news that he might face an arrest warrant for war crimes and for crimes against humanity." "Mr Khan, he said, was like judges in Nazi Germany who denied Jews basic rights and enabled the Holocaust." BBC. Absolutely. To equate Israeli government and Hamas is an outrage of monstrous proportion when one considers that Hamas can stop the war instantly by releasing the hostages. This is a despicable attempt to allow Hamas to continue to use hostages as human shields. In truth, Khan and the ICC are guilty of crimes against humanity by not demanding immediate release of hostages. In a similar outrage, "The UN's top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), has issued a dramatic ruling, ordering Israel to 'immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah'. It acted in support of a South African application last week which sought a number of measures against Israel, accusing of stepping up what it says is a genocide." BBC. South Africa's anger against Israel dates back to Israel's friendship and cooperation with the apartheid government which helped Israel to develop nuclear weapons. wikipedia. South Africa should be careful supporting Hamas. Africa has its own rebel movements. "Today's rebels seem especially uninterested in winning converts, content instead to steal other people's children, stick Kalashnikovs or axes in their hands, and make them do the killing," wrote Jeffrey Gettleman in 2010. South Africa shares a border with Mozambique. Map. On 11 May 2024, "Islamic State-linked insurgents attacked the town of Mocomia in Mozambique's gas-rich Cabo Delgado province, in what is their boldest target in three years. The government said its army successfully repelled the attack after 45 minutes of fighting." HT. Islamic State is a friend of Hamas. "Ten people have been killed and at least 160 other villagers have been kidnapped from a remote community in Nigeria's central Niger state, officials say. A large number of armed men, suspected from Nigeria's militant Islamist group Boko Haram, invaded Kuchi village on Friday (24 May) night, local official Aminu Abdulhamid Najume told the BBC's World Service." Boko Haram, Islamic State, Hamas, are all different names for the same fetid cancer metastasizing all over the world. The only way to survive is to excise all of them. That's what Israel is trying to do. Some day South Africa may need that expertise.       

Submission and devotion.

"India's economy is estimated to grow at 8-8.3% in the current fiscal, industry body PHDCCI said. The country's GDP will grow at an average of 6.7% over the next 23 years to become a $34.7 trillion economy by 2047, with a per capita income of $21,000, it added." BS. "Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan says if one takes away the 'fluff' from India's growth numbers, its real rate of growth could be around 6-6.5% and not 8-8.5%. To become a developed country by 2047, India would need growth at 9-10% over a sustained period of time, he added." BT. In his quest for a third election victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that "Adani and Ambani were filling the Congress coffers with their black money, transporting tempo loads of them to the party he loves to hate." "Shouldn't Adani and Ambani act against Modi (and Rahul Gandhi) for defamation? And if they don't - and they will not - what does it say about corporate India and its billionaires?" "Indian billionaires have flourished in the last 10 years. Governmental policymaking partly made it happen. In return, these elites confer their silence. Patronage always trumped reputation." DH. "It isn't just the official statistics that Indian CEOs find hard to discuss these days. It's a bigger problem if they talk about policies." "Multinationals have learnt to keep quiet because when they do complain - like when a Toyota Motor Corp. executive spoke up against taxing cars as drugs and alcohol - they only get pressure to walk back their words. Either that or social media trolls are unleashed on them." "Whether they feel the growth or not, companies have to applaud the published GDP figures, praise India's regressive tax system and demonize Modi's opponents as anti-growth," wrote Andy Mukherjee. During Mr Modi's tenure prices of shares of public sector companies have soared. "State firms have done better than India's benchmark Sensex index for three straight years." "The government actively mops up household financial savings and routes all investment through the state sector. As a share of GDP, government expenditure has increased sharply, as has India's debt." But, "New investment plans for the private sector shrunk by over 15% in 2023-24. Manufacturing suffered the biggest hit, as fresh proposals fell by 40% in value terms, from Rs 20 trillion ($240 billion) in 2022-23 to Rs 12 trillion ($144 billion) in 2023-24, "wrote Mihir Sharma. India recorded a trade deficit with nine of its top ten trading partners in 2023-24. "The trade deficit with China rose to $85 billion, Russia to $57.2 billion, Korea to $14.71 billion and Hong Kong to $12.2 billion in 2023-24." "India has a trade surplus of $36.74 billion with the US in 2023-24." "India's total trade deficit in the last fiscal narrowed to $238.3 billion as against $264.9 billion in the precious fiscal." BS. While combined exports of merchandise and services have gone up by a tiny amount imports have fallen by a much greater amount, thus reducing the total trade deficit. India Briefing. That is probably because people do not earn enough to buy imported goods. "Lower class aspirations, colored by digital imagination and mall window shopping, remain framed by the lack of industrial jobs in an economy in which the market produces only low-paid service work for the unskilled and the semi-skilled," wrote Prof Supriya Roy Chowdhury. A repressive government, totally submissive middle and upper classes, an army of brain-dead Bhakts, meaning devoted, (DH) and the struggling masses. It's a wonder they don't revolt. Perhaps, they don't have the energy. 

Alchemy or Midas Touch.

"Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned aggressive sellers in Indian markets ever since reducing their buying momentum with the onset of the new fiscal 2024-25 (FY25)." "From January to May so far, they have net sold around Rs 120,000 crore (Rs 1.2 trillion) in Indian markets. This is the secondary market outflow." Mint. And yet, "Domestic stocks staged a strong upmove in Thursday's (23 May) trade to hit their record highs." "The 30-share BSE Sensex pack rallied 1,279 points to hit an all-time high of 75,500, while the broader NSE Nifty index moved over 396 points to trade at a fresh record peak of 22,994." BT. "The share of domestic institutional investors (DIIs), with net inflows of Rs 1,08,434 crore (Rs 1.084 trillion), increased to 16.05% from 15.96% during the December-March FY24 quarter, according to Prime Database. On the other hand, the share of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) declined to an 11-year low of 17.68% as on March 31, 2024, down by 51 bps (basis points) from 18.19% on December 31, 2023." News18. The combined investment of High Net Worth (HNI) individuals and retail investors fell to 9.50% from 9.64%. Thus, domestic investments in Indian stock markets are well above those of foreign ones. The US dollar has been trading at over 83.30 through April and May (Investing.com), reaching a high of 83.669 INR to one dollar on 16 April 2024. Exchange Rates. The exchange rate is 83.04 INR to one dollar today. xe.com. A stronger rupee means that foreign investors are making handsome profits when converting their sales to dollars. "India's forex reserves jumped USD 4.549 billion to a new all-time high of USD 648.7 billion for the week ended May17, the Reserve Bank (RBI) said." BS. In addition, "From January to April 2024, the RBI added 24 tonnes of gold to its reserves," so that gold holdings rose to 827.69 tonnes as of 26 April. TOI. The RBI has been buying gold despite its price shooting up to over Rs 76,000 per 10 grams of 24 karat gold. Bankbazaar. The RBI has declared a dividend of Rs 2.1 trillion to the government for 2023-24. This has resulted from interest from bonds, from lending money to banks and from the sale of foreign currencies. TOI. The RBI also increased the Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) to 6.5% in FY24. BS. "The contingency risk buffer is a specific provision fund kept by the central bank primarily to be used during any unexpected and unforeseen contingencies." MC. "Rs 2.1 trillion is a phenomenal amount, 0.7% of GDP or something like that," said economist Swaminathan Aiyar. The increase in CRB indicates that "the RBI is aware that there is a chance of some kind of financial storm in markets, which may require RBI intervention on a much larger scale than hitherto." ET. What it boils down to is that the RBI has bought 24 tonnes of gold, allowed FPIs to repatriate dollars, increased its forex holdings to record level, dished out a record amount of cash to the government, increased its CRB and yet the rupee is becoming stronger. The RBI must have the Midas Touch (wikipedia) or knows Alchemy (wikipedia). Other central banks must be green with envy. 

Rs 680 billion for menial jobs.

"In the picturesque Canadian province of Prince Edward Island (PEI), a significant protest is unfolding. A group of former and current students, mostly from India, have taken to the streets, voicing their distress over a policy shift that jeopardizes their future prospects in the country." The PEI government has decided to prioritize healthcare, early childhood education, and construction, leaving students who work in food and retail industries, meaning as waiters and salespeople, in jeopardy. So "they face the stark choice of returning to their home countries or protesting in hopes of a policy reversal." ET. The Government of Canada decided to cap the number of international students. "For 2024, the cap is expected to result in approximately 360,000 approved study permits, a decrease of 35% from 2023." canada.ca. Yet, "Despite Canada's policy changes, the fundamental qualities which made the country attractive" are "Canada continues to offer better chances of settling down post-studies, compared to other countries." TIE. A student visa is an avenue to menial jobs in Canada which offer a decent quality of life and the prestigious tag of Non-Resident Indian (NRI). The same jobs in India are considered shameful and a loss of status. Canadian student visas are very attractive for young Punjabis who spend a total of Rs 680 billion every year in university fees and living costs in Canada. ET. Canada's actions may have resulted from India's response to "accusations by the Canadian government that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar." Mint. "External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said Canada has a 'permissive attitude' towards terrorists and extremists," (India Today), and "People linked to organised crime in Punjab are welcomed in Canada." ET. Naturally, Canada would like to restrict potential terrorists and criminals from Punjab. Without a good income men cannot find brides. "These days, the first preference of potential brides is for men with govt jobs that don't exist, followed by private jobs that are shrinking, and then self-employed youth, backed by farmland; the foremost question being, what's the groom's annual income?" wrote Jaideep Hardikar. "You meet graduates and postgraduates of all hues; they've tried their luck - futilely - in the industrial belt of Mumbai-Pune-Nashik; worked in contractual employment for paltry wages; lived in crowded shared chawls or rooms; tried - or are still trying - their luck at competitive exams to land a job, and failed." Sadly, "There is an entire class, probably in the millions, of Indian graduates and would be graduates who are absolutely subpar in their ability to think, communicate, understand, analyse or problem-solve anything." Because of smartphones. "Somehow, watching videos has become the new cool and books a waste of time," wrote Chetan Bhagat. The rot starts in schools and enforced school closures for two years due to Covid (HT), exacerbated the problem. The Annual School Education Report 2023 found that "nearly 25% of rural youth in the age group of 14-18 cannot read a class 2 level text 'fluently', even if it is in their regional language," and "more than half struggle with division (3-digit divided by 1-digit) problems," and yet, "Close to 90% of youth have a smartphone in the household and know how to use it." The Hindu. If they have to do menial jobs, better to do it in Canada. It might get them a bride. 

A waste of time.

"The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has crossed the majority mark in the first five phases of the Lok Sabha polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the Economic Times in an interview." ET. Mr Shah has no need for the NDA. "Exuding confidence that BJP's Lok Sabha count has surpassed 310 after five phases of elections, Union home minister Amit Shah...his party is headed for victory in more than 400 seats." ET. At present, the Lok Sabha has a total of 543 seats so any party, or an alliance of parties, with 272 seats and over will have a simple majority. wikipedia. A victory with over 362 seats will give the BJP two-thirds, and 408 seats will give it three-quarters of all seats. A two-thirds majority will allow the BJP to change the Constitution. byjus.com. Mr Modi is very keen on the idea of 'One Nation, One Election' which means that all states will hold elections to their assemblies along with the parliamentary elections. This will apparently improve voter turnout and reduce the cost of holding elections. NDTV. When assembly elections are held separately voters focus on local issues, like roads, electricity and water supply, but if combined with national elections Mr Modi can use his popularity rating of 78% (TOI) to make it a referendum on himself and confuse voters with completely fictitious claims of the Congress insulting Lord Ram and intending to shut down the temple in the city of Ayodhya (ET). This will, Mr Modi hopes, enable the BJP to win in over 50% of states because to change the federal structure he needs two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha + support of more than 50% of states (byjus.com). And so, India will become a one-party state with the BJP in power forever. In a public meeting in the Milkipur Assemby constituency, the BJP MP from Ayodhya said the government needs two-thirds majority to change the Constitution.  The Print. With Messrs Modi and Shah claiming victory already what is it they know that we don't? "The Supreme Court on May 24 refused to direct the Election Commission of India (ECI) to disclose booth-wise voter turnout under form 17C. BT. This was in response to "the petition filed by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) flagging 5-6% increase in final voter turnout data as compared to the initial percentages announce on the day of polling by the ECI." This gives rise to the suspicion that the electronic voting machines (EVM), used by the voters, are being replaced by doctored ones. ABP. "Considering that all of India's voting is electronic, this information is readily available. Indeed, it is required to be handed over to the agents of all candidates in each of the country's 1.2 million polling booths after the last ballots are cast," wrote Andy Mkherjee. In November 2023, the Attorney General arguing for the government in the Supreme Court claimed that "the voter does not have any right to know how his vote has been recorded and counted". "The judiciary has never been an obstacle to the ruling party's rampaging depredations of our social, constitutional, legal and institutional landscape." "The Supreme Court never fails to disappoint," wrote Avay Shukla. Why waste time voting? If they are going to change the machines.

Aliens not involved.

"The US has warned of potential sanctions for any country considering business deals with Iran, hours after India signed a 10-year contract to operate a port with Tehran. India had entered an agreement to develop the strategically important Chabahar port, close to Iran's border with Pakistan, in 2016. On Monday (13 May), it signed a long-term deal with Iran to develop it further." BBC. One week later, "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed when his helicopter crashed in poor weather in mountains near the Azerbaijan border, officials and state media said." Reuters. Poor timing. "Social media is abuzz with conspiracy theories about the death" "Occurring amid the Israel-Hamas war in which Iran-backed militant groups Hezbollah and the Houthis are also attacking Israel." "What gives wind to such theories is Israeli spy agency Mossad's extraordinary capability to strike inside Iran." "In a stunning operation in 2020, Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh" "was driving his car when he was killed with a robotically operated machine gun mounted on a truck parked on the roadside. The sniper was sitting at an undisclosed location over 1,000 miles away, controlling the machine gun on a computer screen." "Finally, the truck was packed with explosives so it could be blown to bits after the kill." ET. "Amidst rumors of a conspiracy regarding the circumstances of Raisi's death, claims are being made that a space-based laser weapon may have been deployed to bring down his helicopter." "Turkey added to the rumor mill by asserting that the helicopter's transponder was either missing or turned off." HT. Could be aliens from another planet. "The sighting of two alien creatures in Las Vegas last year has been confirmed. With this, it has been established that the aliens were spotted and the video purportedly made showing them was not doctored, it was genuine." ET. The Americans could have come to a deal with the Aliens to get Raisi to stop the Chabahar deal. Duplicitous Yanks. "The death of Raisi could have significant implications for Iran, Israel, and the wider region, as well as for global markets." ET. Not really. There are plenty such villains where he came from. "Raisi came to power in 2021, claiming that Iran didn't need a by-then-defunct nuclear deal with the West and could prosper by facing its 'resistance economy' squarely to the east. He also quickly imposed a crackdown on female dress codes, in a demonstrative turn to a past where his revolutionary credentials - as 'the Butcher of Tehran', responsible for mass executions of regime opponents in 1988 - were impeccable. By the time of his death..., however, both policies had proved disastrous. There were fireworks in the streets of Tehran," wrote Marc Champion. In April, "For the first time ever, Iran has carried out strikes against Israeli territory." "At least nine countries were involved in the military escalation - with projectiles fired from Iran. Iraq, Syria and Yemen and downed by Israel, the US, the UK and Jordan." BBC. Iran fired 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israel. "All drones and cruise missiles were intercepted successfully." Roughly 50% of ballistic missiles failed to reach their target. NDTV. So that failed as well. Aliens need not bother. The regime will fail by itself.

The reserve currency.

"The board of India's central bank approved a record surplus transfer of 2.11 trillion rupees ($25.3 billion) to the government for the fiscal year that ended in March, sharply above analysts' and government projections." "The government had budgeted a dividend of 1.02 trillion rupees from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), state-run banks and other financial institutions." This will help contain fiscal deficit for 2023-24. "India's benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped five basis points to 6.99% after the announcement, its lowest level in nearly a year." Reuters. The Revised Estimate of fiscal deficit was 5.8% of GDP in 2023-24 and was projected at 5.1% of GDP for 2024-25 in the Interim Budget presented on 1 February 2024. pib.gov.in. The RBI earned such a humongous profit from increased interest payments on $250 billion worth of US Treasuries that it holds, from interest paid on borrowings by banks, which are starved of liquidity, and from the sale of dollars. ET. But the RBI also buys dollars. "India's forex reserves jumped $2.561 billion to $644.151 billion for the week ended May 10, the RBI said." "For the week ended April 5, the reserves had hit an all-time high of $648.562 billion following multiple weeks of rise." Zee. How can the RBI make profits by selling dollars if it is buying back at the same rate of exchange? "Hypothetically, if there is a $5 billion shortage, RBI can either directly sell $5 billion to add to the dollar supply; or, it can sell $25 billion and buy back $20 billion, to generate a net supply (or sale) of $5 billion. It's the latter which the RBI did during the year." ET. The buying rate of the US dollar today is Rs 83.74 while the selling rate is Rs 81.45. Thomas Cook. Which means that we have to pay Rs 2.29 more if we buy dollars than if we sell. So, by selling $25 billion and buying $20 billion the RBI should be incurring a loss, or breaking even at best. Apparently, it is showing that the dollars it is selling were purchased in earlier years when the exchange rate was lower. Thus, if it shows that the dollars were purchased in 2014 when the exchange rate was Rs 60.95 to one dollar (Forbes) it is making a gain of Rs 20.50 for every dollar it sells. The dollars it is buying is added to the reserves and becomes an asset. This is a diabolical sleight of hand just to help the government. Can the RBI go bankrupt or can it easily plug any gap in its assets by printing money? "But there's a danger, exemplified by Venezuela in the 1980s and 1990s. The central bank pushed into insolvency by its support of the Latin American government's industrial policy, leaned too heavily on the power of cheap money-printing to earn profits and repair its balance sheet, and lost control of inflation," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The US Federal Reserve, which can print dollars, did not pay any dividend to the US government. "In 2023, the Reserve Banks increased the deferred asset by $116 billion resulting in a cumulative deferred asset at year-end of $133.0 billion. The deferred asset is the amount of net excess earnings these Reserve Banks will need to realize before their remittances to the US Treasury resume." federalreserve.gov. Not a peep out of the Biden government. Hard to imagine the fury of our government if the RBI paid no dividend. That's why the dollar is the world's reserve currency. Investopedia. And the rupee will never be.  

Unwanted legacy.

On 5 May, "The Centre's decision to repurchase short-term government bonds, maturing within 6-9 months, is expected to lower yields and ease liquidity conditions, said market participants." "The decision came amid observations  that while government spending surged between February and April, there is an anticipation of a slowdown leading up to the June election results." BS. On 17 May, "The RBI repurchased only Rs 2,069 crore (Rs 20.69 billion) of government bonds from a notified amount of Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion) as banks were unwilling to sell at a loss. The central bank's second attempt to infuse liquidity saw a limited success as the securities were purchased by banks at higher prices." BT. "The Government's attempt to infuse liquidity through a bond buyback...failed again - the third time in a row this month - as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rejected most of the bids." "In the three buybacks conducted this month, the RBI has managed to repurchase bonds worth only Rs 178.49 billion, significantly falling short of the Rs 1.6 trillion target." Banks are demanding a higher price for the bonds which was rejected by the RBI. Because, "If it accepted bids at very high prices, short term bond yields would have fallen as if the RBI had cut interest rates. That would represent easier financial conditions. Given that inflation is still above 4%, the RBI would not want markets to start pricing in rate cuts when the central bank is working hard to keep inflation expectations anchored." ET. Banks may run short of liquidity because, "The robust post-pandemic economic recovery has seen a surge  in credit growth, especially in the retail segment." "The CD (credit-to-deposit ratio) is at a decadal high of 80%, CareEdge Ratings state in a March 2024 report." "According to RBI data, bank credit growth exceeded the increase in deposits by Rs 2 trillion in 2023-24. A key contributor to this trend has been the rise in equities as an asset class," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Net household savings have fallen to a low of Rs 14.2 trillion in 2022-23 from a peak of Rs 23.3 trillion in 2020-21. That's a drop of Rs 9 trillion, or almost 40% in a brief period." It's not just a slowdown in the growth of deposits but a fall in absolute numbers. "According to official data, household MF (mutual funds) investments almost trebled to Rs 1.79 trillion from Rs 640.84 billion. in 2020-21; in debentures, they nearly doubled to Rs 2.06 trillion." Mint. "The Indian stock market has achieved a remarkable feat of adding $1 trillion in wealth within a span of 6 months. Yesterday, it entered the prestigious $5 trillion club for the first time, despite facing FII pullout ahead of the Lok Sabha election results on June 4." TOI. Not just equities. "The notional volume of equity derivative trading in India reached $6 trillion in early February, a six-fold surge since the start of 2022, before easing recently." ET. This is higher than India's GDP estimated at $4.112 trillion in Q3 of FY2024  (Forbes). What do all these data mean? Is there a danger of millions of people suddenly losing everything? That would leave banks losing trillions due to default. Mr Modi would perhaps not want such a legacy.    

We don't know.

"Nepal...banned the sale and import of a few spice-mix products made by Indian brands over alleged quality issues. This comes after Singapore and Hong Kong imposed a similar ban on India spices earlier." BT. An officer admitted that adulteration is rampant in India. "In the three years leading up to March 2023, Indian authorities tested 43 million food samples. Turns out, one in four did not conform to domestic food safety laws. Of these, one in six were either 'unsafe' or 'substandard'," wrote Sayantan Bera & Suneera Tandon. "But what they did not do is to alert the consumer." "There was no way for consumers to stay away from food items 'injurious to health'". 'We the people' (Preamble) are disposable. "On 9 May 2021, at the height of the second covid wave in Uttar Pradesh," "two covid patients had taken a turn for the worse after getting their first shots of the antiviral remdesivir." The same happened in another hospital, "And there was a common thread, the patients at both hospitals had received remdesivir from the same, batch coded V100167. It was manufactured by the Gujarat based firm Zydus Cadila." "Yet, the Gujarat regulator ostensibly never collected any of Cadila's implicated samples for testing," wrote Priyanka Pula. "On 5 October 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that four cough medicines, made by the Haryana-based manufacturer, Maiden Pharma, were suspected to have caused the deaths of 66 children in the West African nation, The Gambia." Adults with covid are one thing, children with a simple cough poisoned by medicine is explosive news. So, "In a 6 October press release, the Union ministry of health and family welfare said the Haryana firm had been exporting the adulterated brands only to The Gambia, and that they weren't sold in India," wrote Pula. Gambians don't vote in India so killing their children is alright. A think-tank Global Financial Integrity (GFI) "studied data for 2016 to conclude that India lost $13 billion in revenue, equivalent to 5.5% of the country's total tax collections in the year, to trade mis-invoicing." "Ingenious importers order a consignment from a foreign country at prevailing market rates. next, they forge documents to under-invoice the goods at the port in India to pay lower customs and other duties. Finally, they use hawala channels through shell companies based in Dubai or Hong Kong for payment of the balance amount to sellers overseas," wrote Sumant Banerji. Hawala is an informal system of money transfer outside official channels. Investopedia. "There are over a thousand universities in India, and close to 18,000 colleges," but "The majority of colleges in every discipline provide nothing more then the pretense of social or economic mobility to most of their students." Students end up with worthless pieces of paper. "To make matters worse, their families have each spent a fortune - compared to their limited means - on this." "All of this has left the cycle of un-education more or less in place." DH. So they spend a fortune to get admission in little known colleges in rural Canada to be able to work in restaurants or retail stores. Essentially, as labor. ET. India has been insulting Canada over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar (wikipedia). But Canada is not The Gambia. Adulterated spices, medicines and education. Under-invoicing and hawala. We are not informed.  

Remains to be seen.

"Soon after the opposition shared a video of a youth allegedly voting for BJP candidate several times, the Election Commission of India (ECI), Uttar Pradesh has directed the concerned District Election Officer to take prompt and effective action." However, as a fig leaf (wikipedia), this is totally inadequate. "A month has elapsed since Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi's Banswara speech" in which "the PM blatantly breached the model code of conduct as well as the Representation of People Act," but the ECI has done nothing. "No wonder Ramachandra Guha, one of our highly regarded historians and an astute public commentator, says the present three commissioners have brought 'dishonor and disgrace' to the institution. He adds when the history of the Commission is written, they will be remembered as among the worst," wrote Karan Thapar. On 18 May, "An analysis of turnout numbers put out by ECI late night of the day of polling in each phase and the latest updated numbers show that the difference could be nearly 1.07 crore (10.7 million) votes over the first four phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. That's an average of 28,000 votes per constituency for the 379 that have finished polling." TOI. In 2019, the BJP won at least 27 seats with margins less than 28,000. Mr BP Saroj won by a margin of just 181 votes. The Wire. If the election turns out to be close, these 10.7 million excess votes could decide which group gets to govern India for the next five years. "Supreme Court...sought Election Commission's response to the application of an NGO, Association of Democratic Reforms, expressing apprehension about possible replacement of electronic voting machines citing the big increase in final voting percentage figures days after polling." TOI. The fear is that the actual voting machines might have been replaced by doctored machines to favor a certain party. In 2019, "The petitioners pointed out in the Supreme Court that there were as many as six seats where the discrepancy in votes was higher than the winning margin," "for instance, in Anantnag, votes counted in EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines) exceeded voter turnout by 29,746 votes, while the winning margin was only 6,676 votes." The Wire. "When the election started, the dominant theme of Modi's campaign speeches was '400 paar', which meant that the BJP's goal was to cross 400 seats." By 27 April, "'400 paar' was replaced by 'Muslim' and 'minorities' in Modi's speeches." "In a speech recently, he alleged that the two business tycoons, Adani and Ambani, sent loads of 'black money in a tempo (a small truck)' to the Congress Party," wrote Praveen Chakravarty. This is where the ECI should come in. "Western media's already out to undermine legitimacy of a Modi win," complained Swapan Dasgupta. Western media is only echoing Indians who think the election is being stolen. Successfully or not, remains to be seen. 

Port or ransom?

"India signed a 10-year contract with Iran...to develop and operate the Iranian port of Chabahar, the Narendra Modi-led government said, strengthening relations with a strategic Middle Eastern nation. India has been developing the port in Chabahar on Iran's south-eastern coast along the Gulf of Oman as a way to transport goods to Iran, Afghanistan and central Asian countries, bypassing the port of Karachi and Gwadar  in its rival Pakistan." Reuters. "The US has warned of political sanctions for any country considering business deals with Iran, hours after India signed a 10-year contract to operate a port with Tehran." "India took over the operations of the port at the end of 2018." "So far, 2.5m tonnes of wheat and 2,000 tonnes of pulses have been shipped from India to Afghanistan through Chabahar port, officials say." BBC. Iran desperately needs US dollars. In February, "Iran's rial currency sank to a record low against the US dollar... despite central bank measures aimed at cooling demand for foreign currency from savers worried about inflation and the country's economic prospects. The rial was trading at 575,000 on the unofficial free market against the dollar," "With annual inflation running at more than 50%." Reuters. Interestingly, Delhi is also "negotiating the release of the Indian crew who were on an Israeli ship boarded by personnel of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in April. Six of the crew, including one woman, have been set free" and "Delhi has agreed to invest over $300 million," in the port." DH. So, Iran is holding our sailors to ransom even as in March, "Over 100 people were rescued, including 27 from Pakistan and 30 Iranians, in different anti-piracy operations, the Indian Navy said in a press conference." NDTV. It's hard to imagine a more ungrateful, incivilised barbarian nation. While we are having to pay a ransom to the rogue nation Iran, last month, "Citing sources in the American government and US intelligence agencies, The Washington Post has named a RAW officer, Vikram Yadav, in connection with the alleged plot to assassinate Sikh extremist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, in the US, an operation which it said was sanctioned by then spy chief Samant Goel." The Print. "India reacted sharply," "Describing the report as 'unwarranted and unsubstantiated'." HT. "Australia 'kicked out' Indian spies in 2020, after they were caught attempting to steal secrets about defence projects, airport security and Canberra's trade relationships, and ABC news report said." The Print. Spying is accepted practice, but getting caught is unprofessional. The Five Eyes is an Anglosphere intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. wikipedia. "Intelligence sharing regarding terrorist activities, networks, and potential threats is crucial for pre-emptive measures and joint operations. India's geographical location and historical experiences with terrorism make it a valuable partner in the Five Eyes' efforts to combat extremist organisations." The Print. "India has rejected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's recent remarks regarding the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar." DD News. Slamming Washington Post and Canada while surrendering to outlaw Iran is not clever. After all, Iran is a key supporter of Hamas. wikipedia. They might feel encouraged.     

Forced by JP Morgan Chase.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) to the government in FY25," and "This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year." ET. RBI dividends have been soaring since 2014 when this BJP government first came to power. It was Rs 1.761 trillion in 2019 and Rs 991 billion for a 9-month period in 2021. The Wire. In December 2018, then Governor of the RBI, Urjit Patel resigned and Deputy Governor Viral Acharya issued an ominous warning, "Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution." BBC. "JP Morgan Chase & Co has said it is on track to include India in its emerging market debt index from June." "In September 2023, JP Morgan had announced that it would include India in its emerging market bond index starting in June, where it will have a maximum weight of 10%." "Since the JP Morgan announcement, Indian sovereign bonds have seen about $8 billion of inflows into the so-called Fully Accessible Route securities, Bloomberg reported." Mint. "The government is considering a change in the base year for key economic indices to FY23, as well as revamp of several datasets, to better capture structural changes in the economy," as "The base year provides a reference point for measuring changes in economic variables and comparing relative performances of indicators over time." "For instance, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is currently calculated with reference to FY12 prices." ET. The real rate of growth of GDP is calculated by subtracting a deflator from the nominal growth figure, which is derived from price inflation compared to the base year. Investopedia. The consumer price index (CPI) basket has changed, since consumers are spending less on food (Reuters), while vanaspati (hydrogenated vegetable oils) still plays a large part in the wholesale price index (WPI) even though consumption has halved (ET). Inclusion in the index could lead to inflows of $20-$30 billion into Indian government bonds, which will drive prices up and reduce yields. But, investors will look for much higher yields on Indian bonds than on US Treasuries to earn a profit after accounting for devaluation of the rupee against the US dollar. Also, "foreign money coming into Indian bonds can also leave fast," and "the inclusion will lead to increasing scrutiny of the Indian economy, in particular the public finances of the Centre and state governments," wrote Vivek Kaul. Maybe, for the first time since 2014, we, the citizens of India, will get some real information about our economy and not some illusion. Courtesy of foreigners.

The non-tariff barriers.

"Urban unemployment declined to 6.7% in the last quarter of FY24 compared with 6.8% in Q4 FY23, according to periodic labour force survey (PLFS) data." Surely, this should be statistically insignificant. "The Indian Economy is likely to grow 7.6% in FY24." Female labour force participation rate (LFPR), which is the number of women working or looking for work, rising to its highest level of 25.6% since 2017. The proportion of self-employed, which includes people working without wages, rose to 40.5% from 39.5% last year. This dismal picture is despite "India's economy likely expanded at 8% through fiscal year 2024 (FY24), and growth in the current year is projected at 7%, V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the government said." Mint. "India's total goods exports in FY24 fell 3.1% to $437 billion from $451 billion in the previous fiscal." However, orders for leather goods, footwear and apparel have increased by 10%. ET. "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $19.1 billion in April," with exports increasing marginally to $34.99 billion, an increase of 1.6% over $34.61 billion in April 2023, while imports surged to $54.09 billion, an increase of 10% over $49.06 billion in April 2023. ABP. After Singapore and Hong Kong, Nepal has also banned Indian spices from Everest and MDH because of unacceptable levels of ethylene oxide. NDTV. "Over 400 products were flagged for various other deadly contaminations in EU countries, ranging from heavy metals like lead, mercury and cadmium to pesticides and fungicides being above permissible levels." DH. The European Union is notorious for using non-tariff barriers on imports while allowing exports almost freely. WITS. "If India has to become a developed country, it must push its exports because there is only so much it can consume domestically." But, "Just as India tries to tap a huge export opportunity...it also faces strong challenges ranging from quality and trade restrictions. Two years ago, India-made cough syrups were linked to deaths of children in several countries." Now diamond exports are facing restrictions because of sanctions on Russia. From 1 January 2026, Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will hit exports of steel, cement, fertiliser, aluminium and hydrocarbon products. Exports of coffee, leather hides and paperboard may be hurt by EU deforestation regulations adopted in May 2023. ET. Unfortunately, India needs to export to the EU because its GDP at current prices is $18.98 billion US, GDP per capita is $42.44 and has a population of 447.13 million. imf.org. Trade with EU gives access to 27 member countries (wikipedia) with a fairly sizable combined population with very high buying power. With a captive population of 1,440 million people right here at home (worldometer), Indian businesses are quite happy to earn huge profits by selling offal at high prices. That means our exports are not wanted abroad while Indians prefer to buy cheaper imports with better quality. Increasing exports will take strict rules, effective regulators, respecting Indians and reducing taxes. Will they do it? Unlikely. Very.   

The US has earned our smile.

"External affairs minister S Jaishankar has hit out at the Western media over the 'negative' coverage of Indian elections, saying that countries that 'have to go to court for deciding election results' are giving 'gyan' on conducting polls." "Jaishankar was responding to a question on allegations made against India by Canada and the US of poll interference, and conducting operations on foreign soil." HT. He may have been referring to the 2000 presidential election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, "decided on December 12, 2000, in which the Supreme Court of the United States reversed an order by the Florida Supreme Court for a selective manual recount of that state's presidential election ballots." Britannica. Mr Jaishankar is unaware that we, the citizens of India, are extremely concerned about the fairness of our elections. The Election Commission of India (ECI) in charge of conducting the election "has been criticised for its alleged partisanship and bias in favor of the ruling party and for not taking action on complaints against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior BJP leaders. At the same time, it is issuing warnings to the leader of the largest opposition party." DH. "The ECI clearly turns a blind eye to the egregious violations of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as is evident from the analysis of data on its website." While Congress leaders have received 6 notices the BJP has received only 3. The Wire. The ECI has been delaying information about the turn-out number of voters, is publishing only percentages and has not published absolute numbers of voters so far. In the past, the ECI published absolute numbers within 2 days. "It has been noted that there is a difference of 5-6% between the initial figures and the final figures, and that is unusual." EC. Not just unusual, extremely suspicious. Then there are questions about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM). "There is considerable skepticism about whether people's choices are being recorded fairly, and if they're being counted right," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India is not seen as measuring up to the high standards of liberal Western democracies." "The West's rhetoric of 'democratic backsliding' in India is hypocritical." News18. No high standards necessary. "Ladakhi innovator and activist, who has been at the forefront of the protests...has questioned whether there is a link between all those trolling him and the Union home ministry." The Wire. That's going to the level of the sewer. However, even if we are greater than the West it is better not to rile the US. Not because it is rich and powerful, which it is, but because our exports to the US were $77.5 billion in 2023-24 and imports were $40.8 billion, giving us a surplus of $36.7 billion, while our imports from China were $101.7 billion and exports were just $16.67 billion which means we paid China, our worst enemy, a net $85.03. ET. Isn't it better to smile at the US rather than calling it names? They've paid $36.7 billion to earn it.

No need for hindsight.

"The second disappointment is the high and stubborn inflation during 2010 and 2012 during my tenure. I realized that I should have raised interest rates faster and steeper than I had actually done." "It was only with the benefit of hindsight that we learned that growth was actually faster than we knew in real time," said former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Duvvuri Subbarao. Subbarao was in office as Governor of the RBI from 5 September 2008 to 4 September 2013. wikipedia. His regret about inaction from 2010 to 2012 is actually a cop out. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was rising from 2007. Average CPI inflation rate was 6.39% in 2007, 8.32% in 2008, 10.83% in 2009, 12.11% in 2010, 8.87% in 2011 and 9.30% in 2012. inflation.eu. He should have started taking action as soon as he was appointed in 2008 and definitely in 2009. Instead, he actually reduced interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) on 3 November 2008, by a huge 100 bps on 8 December 2008, by another 100 bps on 5 January 2009, by 50 bps on 5 March 2009 and 25 bps on 21 April 2009. Forbes. He was stoking the already red hot inflation. He only woke up a full one year later on 19 March 2010 when he started increasing rates by a miserly 25 bps at a time. "The CPI inflation for the month of April (2024) eased to 4.83%." "The CPI inflation for the month of March 2024 stood at 4.85%." TOI. The CPI calculation is hopelessly out of date because, according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the CPI is calculated with 2012 as the base year (2012=100). MoSPI. Indians have changed their spending habits since then. "Indians are spending less on food, particularly staples like rice and wheat, and more on discretionary items such as processed food, as well as durables like televisions and fridges, government consumption data showed." Reuters. "Food and fuel pushed wholesale inflation (WPI) to a 13-month high of 1.26% in April compared with 0.53% in the previous month." ET. The WPI is also outdated. "Even today, vanaspati (hydrogenated vegetable oil) has the highest weightage in the basket of cooking oils, whose prices are monitored by the government to calculate the WPI. However, in the past one and a half decades, the consumption of vanaspati has declined - from around 6% of total cooking oil consumption in 2010-11 to about 3% in 2022-23." ET. In April, "The RBI...kept its key lending rate unchanged at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive time." NDTV. That means for a full 12 months from April 2023. ET. The RBI will have no need for hindsight because "India's economy likely expanded at 8% through fiscal year 2024 (FY24), and growth in the current year is projected at 7%, V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the government said." Mint. However, if you don't know consumption, you won't know the gross domestic product (GDP) either. "Asian Paints MD and CEO Amit Syngle has expressed cynicism about GDP numbers and admitted to investors the figures do not correlate to core sectors including steel and cement." Mint. The present RBI is doing nothing despite wrong data. Mr Subbarao did the opposite with glaring data. Don't blame hindsight.

   

Between Hamas and election.

"President Joe Biden said for the first time...he would halt some shipments of American weapons to Israel - which he acknowledged have been used to kill civilians in Gaza - if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orders a major invasion of the city of Rafah." CNN. This was an invitation to Netanyahu. "If we have to stand alone we will stand alone. If we need to, we will fight with our fingernails," he said. TOI. That would look bad, so "Biden is facing backlash from lawmakers in both parties over his ultimatum that a major Israeli offensive in the city of Rafah would result in a shut-off of some US weapons." CNN. The US said "that Israel's use of US-provided weapons in Gaza likely violated international humanitarian law but that wartime conditions prevented US officials from determining that for certain." ABC. The Biden administration has determined, however, that although Israel may have violated international humanitarian law "it hasn't violated terms of US weapons agreements". CNBC. That's alright then. After Biden "gave his ultimatum of withholding offensive weapons to the Jewish state...rocket attacks rained down on Israel," as "Hamas launched rockets from Rafah at the Israeli city of Beersheva on Friday (10 May) for the first time since December, as Iranian proxy Hezbollah sent a barrage of rockets into the northern Israel city of Kiryat Shmona, causing a massive fire." Fox. Hamas and Hezbollah have no restrictions or qualms about killing civilians, children or babies, as proved in photographs shown to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO defence ministers by Israel. Reuters. After all, their control, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, wants to wipe out Israel. jpost.com. "Biden has paused a shipment of some 3,500 bombs, which includes heavy 2,000 pound versions along with the lighter 500-pound munitions. Both have been used to devastating effect in Gaza, swaths of which have been used to rubble." The Hill. These bombs belong to the Pentagon's Mark 80 series of bombs. "In addition to the 2,000-pound Mk-84, they also come in 250-pound, 500-pound and 1,000-pound versions - the MK-81, MK-82 and MK-83." The US has also developed a 21,000-pound bomb called a Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, which was used once in Afghanistan in 2017, and a 30,000-pound bombs called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. NYT. MOAB is jocularly interpreted as 'Mother Of All Bombs'. wikipedia. Students at universities in the US are protesting furiously against Israel (BBC) in their love for Hamas and they are probably progressives. Biden wants their votes in November (wikipedia). If the US turns its back on Israel it will have to find support from others, maybe even Moscow or Beijing, which "Biden ought to have learned when he tried to turn Saudi Arabia into a global pariah, only to learn, to his own humiliation, the kingdom had other strategic options." ET. Biden has been a Senator since the age of 29 years.The White House. He has spent his whole life winning elections. But, does he want to be remembered as a Hamas protector? His choice.  

A must win situation.

"The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is cruising to a third consecutive term despite not doling out populist measures in the interim budget because the country has seen true progress and development and is voting on the basis of the difference in their lives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said.., accusing the opposition of introducing divisive agenda into the poll campaign." HT. NDA is an alliance of 38 parties, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jagran Josh. BJP's manifesto is called "Modi ki Guarantee" (Modi's Guarantee) and is full of giveaways. HT. "Mr Modi says his government has spent more than 34 trillion rupees ($400 billion) in the past decade, delivering direct cash benefits to low-income households reaching over 900 million people. A yearly handout of Rs 6,000 to more than 110 million farmers constitutes one of the world's largest cash transfer programs." BBC. At a campaign rally in April Mr Modi claimed that the Congress Party will take away the Mangal Sutra (sacred thread that married Hindu women wear round their necks) (Sampati) and give all the gold to Muslims. "He described Muslims as 'illegal immigrants' who produce many children." ET. For Mr Modi to claim that he does not resort to populism and that the Opposition is "introducing divisive agenda" is not his usual 'jumla' (bluff) (DH). This is 'pants on fire' (VOA) stuff. Then, "Union home minister Amit Shah said...India would take back Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) if the BJP-led NDA returns to govt at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi." TOI. But, PoK is almost 100% Muslim. As part of India they will produce more children. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had the best of relations with Western leaders in his twin terms so far. Not so with the Western media, who have an assortment of descriptors for him ranging from strongman to autocrat," wrote Prabhu Chawla. Mr Chawla is unaware that there are millions of Indians with worse opinion of this government but are terrified to say so. This government cannot afford to lose. Not just the BJP but also the 25 prominent opposition politicians facing criminal charges who have joined  the BJP, 23 of whom have seen the charges dropped, will do anything to ensure Mr Modi wins. Mint. "The ruling party is likely worried that if it were to leave the government, PM Cares funding details will also be revealed." The Wire. "A Paris-based investigative website Mediapart has reported that the Narendra Modi-led government is refusing to cooperate with French judges in their ongoing investigation into the alleged corruption in the sale of 36 Dassault-built Rafale fighter jets to India in 2016 for 7.8 billion euros. TNIE. There was the Pegasus surveillance software. And "Investigative journalists have found that there is a gap of about Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion) between what the BJP spent in the last ten years and what it officially said it received as donations." Crimes have mounted up in 10 years. Will the BJP win? They have to. Or else.

The real elephant.

"US consumer sentiment sagged to a six-month low in May as households worried about the higher cost of living and unemployment," and "The mood was downbeat among Democrats, independents and Republicans." "The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in May from 3.2% in April," and "Its five-year inflation outlook increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in the prior month." Inflation expectations have been in the 2.9%-3.1% range in 30 of the last 34 months but higher than the pre-pandemic range of 2.2-2.6%. Reuters. "Debates over whether US interest rates are high enough deepened among Federal Reserve officials this week, and may be stoked further after a key survey showed a jump in consumers' inflation expectations." Reuters. "The US Inflation Rate is at 3.48% (in March), compared to 3.15% last month and 4.98% last year." ycharts. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in India decreased to 4.85% in March from 5.09% in February. pib.gov.in. "Households' inflation expectations for both three months and one year ahead moderated by 20 basis points (bps) each to 9.0% and 9.8% respectively, their perception on current inflation, however, remained unchanged at 8.1%." RBI. Perhaps, households know more than the RBI because the CPI is calculated on the prices of a basket of goods and services based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2011-12 and is completely outdated. FE. The US Fed is very serious about inflation but, "The elephant in the room was CPI inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest," joked RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. After the pandemic struck, presidents Trump and Biden unleashed around $10 trillion in new spending, $8 trillion of that after the brief, lockdown-induced recession of early 2020 was over," wrote Ruchir Sharma. In India, the government announced a five-part package claiming to amount to Rs 20.97 trillion, or 10% of GDP, but "Over a dozen banks, brokerages and rating agencies have said the package falls short of 10% of GDP and works out around 1%." TOI. Another elephant in the jungle, perhaps. "One result is that India's public debt is up by about 8 points as a share of GDP - half the increase in US." "US cannot sustain such aggressive stimulus indefinitely," and "it is hard to know when the sugar rush from the past stimulus will wear off. But once it does, the landing may come faster than any conventional model suggests." Sharma. "The US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. BI. In India, rural consumption grew by "only 0.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of FY24." "This is not just a blip of higher food inflation in February 2024 that resulted in 3.3% decline in real wages but has been observed for 25 out of 27 months to February, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy." FE. Stagnation with inflation, that is stagflation. The RBI and the government may deny it but households know better. That's the real elephant.