Monday, November 06, 2017

Why this constant nudging to make us take risks?

"There are some who brand the markets as a casino for gamblers," wrote A Hattangadi about the reluctance of investing in shares in India. "Clearly, the aversion to loss i.e., the fear of losing your principal, is a factor that keeps individuals away from investing in equities. The pain from a loss, according to behavioural economist, is almost two times the pleasure derived from similar gain." Are Indians wrong? "Of course the public market which operates every day with transactions, is an ideal casino," said Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's assistant. "When I interact with some of the best investors in the Indian equity markets, who manage their own wealth, what comes across as striking is not their intellect, but rather their emotional quotient. Their ability to take losses in their stride and continue to take new bets distinguishes them from the crowd. And of course, knowing when to scale up the bet on a winning horse is what makes all the difference," wrote Hattangadi, using gambling analogy. Gamblers take risk, believe in their odds and indulge in herd behavior, wrote RE Riggio. Exactly what punters do on the share market. As for investing in shares through professional fund managers, here is what the guru of investing, Warren Buffet had to say, "There's been far, far, far more money made by people in Wall Street through salesmanship abilities than through investment abilities." "Now we have a vast gambling culture, and people have made it respectable. Instead of betting on prizefights, we can bet on the price of securities or price of derivatives relating to securities..." said Munger. While shunning stock markets Indians have no problems voting for criminal politicians. Are we stupid? Apparently, being irrational makes us better decision makers, wrote O Goldhill. According to financial models created by experts, the crisis in 2007 should have been impossible. Behavioural economics is very hot now. Many of the experts on television are talking rubbish. "Many of their predictions are no better than random guesses," wrote Tetlock and Gardner. Share prices are based on expectations of future earnings. The Indian market is already the most expensive in the world with a price-earnings ratio of 24.53. This year's Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Richard Thaler for his 'nudge theory', but it is already being used for dark purposes. Perhaps, Hattangadi is indulging in some dark nudging when he writes so invitingly about investing in shares. In experiments people improve when they are told they are being prescribed placebos, or inert pills. The human mind is complex. Perhaps it is right in avoiding risks.

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