Today is the anniversary of 'demonetization', when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the withdrawal of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes from circulation, without any warning, precipitating enormous queues in front of banks. Jayant Sinha, a minister in Modi government, thinks it was a "resounding success". He conflates Goods and Services Tax, or GST, with demonetization as "massive reforms". GST is a permanent change in indirect taxes and is indeed a reform, while demonetization was a one off, followed by new notes in circulation. He says that it reduced use of cash, increased digital transactions, widened the tax base and lots of notices have been sent out by tax officials. "One year after note ban cash is still king," wrote R Kishore. Use of cash is almost back to normal and digital payments have plummeted, but point of sale terminals and credit card use have increased. E-commerce customers are expected to cross 100 million this year, according to a study by ASSOCHAM, so that may explain the rise in use of cards. Former Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh called it an "organised loot and legalised plunder". He said that it increased imports from China by Rs 450 billion. Black money is a menace but demonetization was harmful because it hurt the poor and interfered with the authority of the Reserve Bank, wrote Dr Singh. But, since he is credited with presiding over a list of massive scams that multiplied the volume of black money many times over, his credibility is severely limited. A survey by Economictimes.com showed that 38% of people thought demonetisation to be a success, as opposed to 30% who thought it a failure. Not a ringing endorsement. 42% thought it made economy more transparent, 45% thought that jobs were lost in the short term, 56% thought it hit black money and 55% thought it enhanced the image of the government. This was emphasised by Sinha when he pointed to electoral victories in UP and Uttarakhand as evidence. Fooling 'the great unwashed' is no big deal, as Hugo Chavez showed in Venezuela. A British politician, G Morris was astonished to see Chavez's popularity during his fourth electoral victory, when he trounced his opponent, getting 55% of votes and winning 22 out of 24 states. Today Venezuela is an economic basket case, with its people reduced to penury. Arun Shourie of the BJP called demonetization the "largest money-laundering scheme", but then he maybe sore because Modi has ignored him for posts. While it definitely harmed economic growth and the rural economy its benefits are doubtful, P Bhattacharya demonstrated in 10 charts. Whatever its pros and cons, no one should have the right to debase our currency, just as it is criminal to insult the flag or the national anthem. Must be punished.
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