Friday, September 22, 2017

Who wins in economics versus politics?

"Ten years ago, in August 2007, the French investment bank BNP Paribas SA, which had taken money from investors to buy subprime mortgages in the US, told those investors that it was suspending redemptions because the bank's fund managers were no longer sure what those mortgages were worth," wrote P Bhattacharya. The panic spread, Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, and the global economy was suddenly facing a crisis. Since the Great Recession of 2008 economists have been engaged in self examination, even self flagellation, of their profession. Economists are questioning even the basic theory of Economics 101, which taught that increasing minimum wage increases unemployment as businesses cut their workforce to reduce expenses. Milton Friedman's idea of Permanent Income Hypothesis, in which how people spend depends on expectation of future income but not on windfall profits, is correct in only half the number of people, wrote Prof N Smith. Bhattacharya recounts "The seven sins of economics." He accuses economists of expecting rational behavior, of using defective models, of intellectual capture, of obsession with science, of unconditionally accepting textbook Econ 101, of ignoring society and of ignoring history. World Bank economist, Paul Romer has coined the word 'mathiness' to describe mathematical models which are inconsistent with theory. But perhaps, economists are being too hard on themselves. It is not just a question of collecting accurate data and then calculating the policies that will produce maximum benefit for the economy, because policies are in the hands of politicians who have to win elections and will do anything, however harmful it maybe, to stay in power. Despite warnings from the Reserve Bank against demonetization, the government went ahead anyway because the Prime Minister desperately wanted to win assembly elections in UP, which he did with two-third majority. Previous governments signed a series of free trade agreements, hoping to increase exports, but this has only doubled our trade deficit with these countries because, while we have reduced taxes on goods, they have not reduced impediments against services. Naturally, our current account deficit is always under upward pressure. With the highest oil reserves in the world and a minuscule population of 31.57 million, Venezuela is facing total collapse of its economy and its people are facing starvation. No economic theory or calculation can stop a villain from destroying his nation to hang on to power. The US Congress may impose fresh tougher sanctions on Russia because of internal politics but this is infuriating European countries because their energy bills may soar. Politics is extremely dirty. Science tries to be pure.

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