India's economy is likely to remain pear shaped.

"The 'Asian century' might never come," writes A Gary Shilling for Bloomberg. Western nations have a fascination for Asia. The rapid recovery of Japan after the WWII was followed by the rise of the Asian Tigers, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, then by Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and China and so on. With sluggish economic growth in the West many still believe that emerging nations in Asia will take up the slack but that is unlikely to happen. Globalization is nearly complete, export-led growth is not going to work anymore, as exports to developed nations have reached a peak, China's shift to a consumption led economy is progressing too slowly, populations in some countries are aging, but growing in Indonesia and India, and there is a threat of armed conflict. So what about India? Despite demonetization our economy grew at 7% in the last quarter, from December to March, the fastest in the world. So, are we about to become very wealthy? India is a socialist country where everything from mines, to banks to railways are controlled by the government. The recent incident in which a politician hit an Air India, which is controlled by the government, manager with his slipper is a vivid example of the power of politicians. His party, Shiv Sena, said that Air India is behaving like a mafia for blacklisting the politician from flying.  India has the largest population of poor people in the world, so naturally the government pours resources and money for their welfare. To help farmers the new government in UP is to spend in excess of Rs 363 billion in forgiving bank loans of farmers. The farmers in Maharashtra, who have suffered badly from drought, are also demanding waiver of their loans, supported by opposition parties. Meanwhile, the High Court in Madras has ordered the Tamil Nadu government to waive loans of all farmers, including those with farms larger than 2.5 acres. By 2022 the population of India will reach 1.4 billion people, the highest in the world, and most of the increase will be in the poor. Loan waivers do not work and reduce the credit quality of banks, wrote Tamal Bandopadhyay, but the poor constitute a huge 'vote bank' so politicians try to please them. To please the poor the government has given them various rights, such as right to education, right to food and right to employment. Now the talk is of right to internet. Right to Education increased school fees of the middle class by three times. The zero balance accounts for the poor, known as Jan Dhan accounts, have increased our bank charges enormously. To finance its schemes the government raises money from all kinds of taxes. The number of wealthy people maybe increasing elsewhere but is decreasing in India. There will be a small number of billionaires and vast numbers of poor, but no middle class. India will remain pear shaped.