Emerging markets may never emerge.

A report from the International Monetary Fund warns that the the golden age is over for emerging markets, wrote Manas Chakravarty. "Together with a risk of protectionism in advanced economies and tighter financial conditions as US monetary policy normalizes, these changes make for a more challenging external environment for emerging market and developing economies going forward," said the report. The IMF gives two charts which show "how the contribution of emerging markets (EMs) to world growth increased from 18.2% during 1976-79 to 69.82% during 2010-15. The contribution of developing countries to world consumption rose even more markedly -- from 13.9% during 1976-79 to 72% in 2010-15." However, the share of EMs to both growth and consumption is going to fall slightly by 2021. Western people have been predicting an 'Asian Century' for years but that will probably never come, wrote A Gary Shilling. The benefits of globalization have reached maximum, export-led growth is no longer possible, population is contracting in Japan, while increasing in other countries, governance is poor and there is a risk of armed conflict. So what about India? Growth in India is mainly dependent on domestic demand but, following liberalization, exports of goods and services have risen from 6.8% of GDP in 1990-91 to 25% of GDP in 2013-14. In addition to problems similar to other emerging market countries the factor markets is distorted in India, wrote Ejaz Ghani. Factor market refers to goods and services bought and sold for production. "Firms in India differ enormously in performance compared to the US. The productivity of a US firm in the top decile is usually twice as high as that of a firm in the bottom decile in a typical manufacturing industry. This increase is five times more so in India. This suggests considerable factor market misallocation within India." The biggest problem is land. Land is not only essential to set up factories but also acts as collateral for borrowing capital. India has benefited enormously from globalization. Our share of the global GDP has doubled from 3.65% in 1990 to 7.32% in 2016. So, we have to take the IMF warning seriously. Private investment was falling, which meant a shortage of new jobs. On being elected prime minister, Narendra Modi decided to increase government spending in the hope that it would stimulate private investment, but that was not working, wrote Mihir Sharma. The Reserve Bank warned that increased government spending might increase fiscal deficit, in effect borrowing from future generations. Government spending, fiscal deficit and government debt are high compared to our peers. There seems to be a glimmer of hope that private investment may pick up, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Any glimmer is welcome.