Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Friend or foe, does Obama know?

Obama was elected on the promise of withdrawing all troops from Iraq, which he did in 2011, and won reelection in 2012 by boasting about it. Now he has sent 1,500 troops back to Iraq, not to fight but only to advise and train Iraqi soldiers. Whether he was wrong or right we do not know but it seems neither does he. He supported the NATO bombing of Libya, killing 30,000 Libyans, to get rid of Gaddafi in 2011 and in 2012 Ambassador Christopher Stevens and 3 bodyguards were killed in Benghazi. By 2014 the US had to close its embassy and withdraw all staff from Libya. The US was using drones to bomb Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen, with the support of the then President Ali Abdullah Saleh who belongs to the Zaidi sect of Shia Muslims. Saleh was deposed by a coup and Abdrabbouh Mansour Hadi, a Sunni, became President in 2012. Now Shia rebels from the north, called Houthis have occupied the capital Sanaa and are closing in on the port city of Aden. The US has withdrawn all personnel from Yemen. Worse, US intelligence files have fallen into the hands of the Houthis which could mean death for all those who collaborated with the US. The judge who sentenced Saddam Hussein to death was captured, as he tried to escape in a dancer's costume, tortured and killed. Wisely, President Hadi has fled Yemen by sea. Since yesterday Saudi Arabia and its allies have been bombing the Houthis in Yemen because they are Shia and supported by Iran. On the other hand the US is helping Iran backed Shia militia in Iraq by bombing the Islamic State in Tikrit. If Tikrit is won the militia will  try to win Mosul. The US seems helpless. Sending in ground troops against the IS could result in huge casualties. It is having to depend on Iran to fight the IS while trying to negotiate an end to the Iranian nuclear program. To beat the IS it has to be defeated in Syria which could help the Assad regime to regain power. Assad belongs to the Alawi sect of Shia Muslims and is supported by the Hezbollah from Lebanon, which is a Shia proxy for Iran. Meanwhile Obama has agreed to keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through this year to support the new president. The Afghans are more afraid of US trained militia than the Taliban so what happens when the US leaves is anyone's guess. The tunnel vision of western politicians is clearly shown by an article by Carl Bildt, the former Prime Minister of Sweden who writes that a grand bargain with Iran," ...based on consultations with Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries " offers the best solution. Do they really think so? Do they not see how Netanyahu thinks that Israel is being betrayed by Obama by negotiating with Iran? If it comes to Iran versus Israel plus Saudi Arabia wonder which side the US will take. So many possibilities.

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