Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Should not start a fight you cannot finish.

What a change a new year makes. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas Americans would have felt invincible. The price of oil was going down, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was rising ever higher, despite the discontinuation of the bond buying program by the Federal Reserve, consumer confidence was up, leading to higher consumer spending,  US troops were coming home from Afghanistan and the Russian bear was out for the count, knocked out by western sanctions and the falling price of oil. Could it be the end of Vladimir Putin? One week into the new year things look completely different. The slide in the price of oil shows no signs of stopping, the Dow is down 2.54% and the US oil industry, along with industries supplying rigs and equipment, is shedding jobs. And wicked Putin, vilified by the western press as a thug, a kleptomaniac, a killer and a wife beater, is still there. Not just that, Russia, along with Iraq, has actually increased production of oil, making the glut worse, and putting further downward pressure on prices. But what about Obama, the gasbag? His popularity rating will surely see a boost as low pump price of petrol puts an additional $100 into the wallets of US consumers and brings down inflation, by bringing down transport costs, and adds another $100 billion stimulus into the economy. He should be feeling pretty pleased with himself. After all it was western governments who engineered and supported the armed coup in Ukraine that deposed an elected president with the help of extreme right wing nationalist Svoboda and the neo-Nazi Right Sector thugs. When Russian speakers in the eastern half of the country revolted against the fascist government in Kiev they blamed Russia and imposed sanctions on it, trashing its economy. Trouble is, having started the mayhem they cannot control it. Stock markets are falling because investors fear that the global economy is going to slow down. The Eurozone economy grew by a mere 0.1% in the last 3 months, inflation in Germany was down to 0.2% in December, leading to a fear of deflation, and yields on bonds are down to almost zero. Fresh elections in Greece threaten to elect the Syriza Party which is against austerity and has promised to renegotiate the terms of its loans with the ECB and the IMF. Others, led by Germany, are threatening dire consequences if Greece refuses to abide by its commitments. The ECB is almost certain to resort to quantitative easing of its own very soon. With such uncertainty there has been a flight to the dollar which has become stronger against all currencies, which will hit US exports. Yields on 10 year US bonds are down to 1.8% which signifies low inflation, possibly due to low growth. You may start a fight but the finish will depend on the opponent. They do not seem to understand.

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